Despite a clearly agreed ceasefire at the recent Director General of Military Operations (DGMO)-level talks, Pakistan continues to engage in dangerous greyzone provocations by launching drones across the Line of Control (LoC) and the International Border (IB). These drone attacks have escalated tensions significantly, prompting forward airports in Jammu, Punjab, and Rajasthan into high alert, and leading to disruptions in civilian aviation operations.
But beneath these drone incursions lies a deeper, more troubling reality: internal discord within Pakistan’s military leadership. Credible intelligence has indicated that there are serious fissures within the ranks of the Pakistan Army, specifically between Army Chief General Asim Munir and disgruntled local commanders positioned along the LoC & IB. These rogue commanders, reportedly dissatisfied with General Munir’s leadership and ceasefire stance, have been conducting drone operations autonomously, openly defying instructions from their military top brass.
In understanding the seriousness of this internal crisis, one must recognise that the Pakistan Army’s DGMO position functions directly under General Munir’s personal command. Strategic coordination and operational decisions at the DGMO level are personally approved by Munir, reflecting his direct involvement and investment in the ceasefire arrangements with India. Therefore, it is clear that the recent ceasefire understanding—achieved through DGMO-level talks—bears Munir’s explicit approval and strategic intent.
This begs the question: Why are drone attacks continuing despite Munir’s directives? The answer lies in the alarming degree of insubordination and autonomy among frontline commanders, who are pursuing their own aggressive agendas independent of Islamabad’s directives. Historically, the Pakistan Army has faced similar internal discord during significant strategic failures, such as during the Kargil War of 1999 and the Pulwama attack in 2019—both instances where rogue actions by local commanders severely damaged Pakistan’s international standing.
From India’s perspective, these provocations require clear-eyed and strategic responses. To address the immediate threat, India has robust military options, including precision strikes against identified drone launchpads along both the LoC and IB. Such actions, similar to the surgical strikes of 2016 and the Balakot airstrikes of 2019, are well within India’s military capabilities and international legal justification. Targeted, proportionate retaliation would serve to neutralise the drone threat and reinforce India’s credible deterrence posture.
Moreover, should Pakistan escalate further, such as by intentionally or inadvertently disrupting Indian civilian air traffic, India could deploy strategic reciprocal measures in line with Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s doctrine of decisive response. Specifically, enforcing an operational shutdown of Lahore Airport, Pakistan’s busiest aviation hub, could deliver a clear and robust strategic message, underlining India’s resolve without triggering large-scale conflict.
General Munir’s fragile hold over his own commanders makes Pakistan’s strategic trajectory increasingly unpredictable and perilous. New Delhi, therefore, must combine decisive military responses with prudent diplomatic manoeuvring, balancing its hard power with careful international positioning. India’s strategic calculus must remain firm yet measured, ensuring its security interests are robustly defended in the face of Islamabad’s dangerous internal discord.
(The writer is the Additional Director General of the Centre for Land Warfare Studies)