The Real Donald Trump once again needs to assert himself, an eventuality which would be welcome to the alliance of democracies against extremism and expansionism.
NEW DELHI: Out of the blue, the President of the US, who as Commander-in-Chief directs policy, swerved off course and moved in a direction opposed to the interests of the United States, the country he has been elected by its voters to safeguard. As a consequence, the US, initially set on the correct trajectory by the President, is moving into a course containing risks for the entire global community.
While China may seem like the gainer from such a curveball, the reality is that the very unpredictability of policy set by Trump denies the CCP the necessity of a stable environment—what may be called the job lost to other countries because of the manufacturing capacity of China.
However, Xi does not know for how long the good times that have suddenly shone on him will endure, making longer-term planning risky. President Trump may self-correct anytime, reimposing the tariffs and restrictions needed to prevent China under the CCP from gobbling up technology and jobs from the US, in the process making investments already made within China and in Chinese cutout companies (where Chinese components get assembled to create “Made in Mexico” or “Made in Cambodia” products in locations such as Mexico and Cambodia) unviable.
Where kinetic activity is concerned, letting go of the “Pause” button in a manner sufficient to satisfy the political needs of CCP General Secretary Xi Jinping would invite immediate reaction, not least within the MAGA base of Donald Trump that forms the bedrock of his hold over the Republican Party and by extension, over both the US House of Representatives and Senate.
This would be a disaster for Trump as approval from both is needed in order to actualise much of high policy. This far, the changes sought to be made by what may be called the Unreal Donald Trump have largely remained confined to social media posts. Getting them approved by the US Congress would not be an easy task, given that several policy swerves, especially on China and Syria would be unpopular with Republican voters and indeed with voters overall in the US.
If the US can be compared to a giant nuclear powered carrier, it needs a flotilla of at least another nuclear powered carrier (India) accompanying it as well as nuclear powered capital ships (Japan, UK, France and Germany in the first instance) as well as non-nuclear craft accompanying it to provide sufficient offensive as well as defensive capability to confront successfully the danger to international stability, prosperity caused by an expansionist superpower clinging to a political philosophy and structure out of place in the zeitgeist of the times, China.
Of course, the CCP is expert at peddling false narratives, including by unsuspecting Indian journalists who believe that they are getting input from anti-CCP, anti-Wahhabi sources when the reverse is the case. Journalists working in influential Indian media outlets are courted by such tainted sources. A wary eye needs to be put by not just the Government of India but those in charge of influential media outlets as well.
As overall we have a responsible media committed to the national interest, this is a danger that can be minimised if not eliminated. As far as India is concerned, the country is a frontline state not just against CCP expansionism but extremist terror as well, which is why so much effort and expense is being showered by the Sino-Wahhabi lobby to use camouflaged or even unwitting “Useful Idiot” sources in our country in order to plant misleading information about India.
A prevalent trope is that India is being run by a government that is interested only in the welfare of a section of the people, when in reality, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has been consistent in ensuring that the benefits of Central schemes reach all sections of society irrespective of narrow sectarian differences.
Rather than ensure that a country that through its military and technological talent in particular is essential to security, especially within the Indo-Pacific, some of the recent statements of President Trump have created a distance between the two partner countries while simultaneously, aligning with the interests of China, at least for now. Another important front in the ongoing hybrid war principally taking place between China and the US is what is happening between Israel and clerically controlled-Iran.
It needs to be remembered that the clerical regime in Iran is no friend of India, whereas the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and Israel are. As was the practice followed by the LTTE in Sri Lanka before its decapitation by the Sri Lankan army by the killing of its supremo Velupillai Prabharakan in 2009, the LTTE supremo forced a large crowd of women and children to be in front of him while he attempted to escape the military ambush. Defence Secretary Gotabaya Rajapaksa ordered his troops to fire at the supremo and kill him. In the process of doing so, several of the women and children used by him as human shields also lost their lives.
Both Hamas and Hezbollah use civilian infrastructure to conceal their military posts in such buildings, and as a consequence of neutralising members of the military wing of Hamas and Hezbollah, several civilians have lost their lives in Gaza and Lebanon, as was the case in Sri Lanka after the takeout of the LTTE. Many of those responsible for defeating the LTTE have become the subject of attention and even sanctions by the relevant international agencies.
Should Netanyahu succeed in his stated aim of eliminating the military wings of Hamas and Hezbollah and in delivering a knockout blow to the military capabilities of the cleric-controlled Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), the Prime Minister of Israel would merit in the eyes of the Israeli public overall a pardon from the President of Israel for whatever charges have been brought against him.
It is a reality that the GCC states would privately welcome such a development, although keeping in view public sentiment, would be unwilling to make such a stance public as long as Netanyahu remains the Prime Minister of Israel.
Such a mission of demilitarizing Hamas would benefit the US as well, although President Trump seems in a hurry to sign a deal with Iran on nuclear technology. As long as the clerical regime is in control of the country, ensuring that Iran actually keeps to the practical limits of an Obama-style deal would be problematic. However, Trump seems in a hurry to sign a deal that would, to put it mildly, be to the disadvantage of Israel.
It needs to be added that deep penetration “bunker buster” bombs from the US are needed by Israel to carry out its intention of wiping off the military capabilities of Hamas, Hezbolla and the IRGC, and it is unlikely that Iran would sign another Obama-style nuclear deal after Trump 1.0 tore the agreement to shreds. Of course, President Trump went forward with the Doha deal involving the Taliban during Trump 1.0 that enabled the takeover of much of the country by the Pashtun militia early into the Biden Presidency in 2017, not that President Biden put up any resistance to such an operation.
The reverse in fact, by his ordering the US military to leave Afghanistan in a tearing hurry, without retaining any of the weapons and facilities created in that country by the US. Were the US to continue to give the necessary number and type of weapons needed by Israel to complete its task, that of eliminating the military capabilities of Hamas, Hezbollah and the IRGC, that would suffice.
To be sure of that would require that the Real Donald Trump once again assert himself, an eventuality which would be welcome to the alliance of democracies against extremism and expansionism. And what of a realistic and therefore lasting peace between Ukraine and Russia that would involve Ukraine giving up its right to the lands taken over by the Russia and its satellites since 2014, while putting a stop to such nibbling by Russia despite the territory already taken by the world’s largest country not being the entirety of what President Putin had in mind when he launched his “Special Military Operation” against Ukraine in February 2022? Now that Zelenskyy has satiated Trump’s eagerness to get rights over much of Ukrainian rare earth riches, will President Trump agree to yet more concessions from Russia under threat of sanctions? More sanctions would be of marginal effect in a country already smothered with western sanctions, and Putin is unlikely to agree to such a deal.
Sanctions rather than a settlement would push Moscow even more firmly into the lap of Beijing unless the Real Donald Trump returns with the élan that he has always demonstrated in the most trying of situations.
As for India, President Trump has given a false equivalence between Pakistan and India, and has made extravagant claims of responsibility for a truce reached at by the two DGMOs after the Pakistan DGMO picked up the hotline to his counterpart in India and said that Pakistan was ready to stop the conflict. It is clear that a significant kinetic strike by India caused such a change of posture on the Pakistan military side.
Unless the radiation detection aircraft from the US followed soon after by a Chinese aircraft stocked with radiation dimming chemicals arrived in Pakistan for purposes of refuelling, an unlikely event, no matter of misleading news peddled even by sections of the Indian media would be able to disguise the fact that it was the suspicion of radioactive material being present at a site in Pakistan which brought them there. Of course, those who have made it their purpose in life to constantly belittle India under PM Modi would say this was because of a significant strike by India on a critical defence installation.
The truth, even though such people refuse to admit it, was that India under its present leadership won the two short rounds of Operation Sindoor that have already taken place.
India, which under Modi has signed all the defence foundation agreements with the US although as yet not a binding mutual security alliance with that country, needs the Real Donald Trump to come back from the vacation he seems to have taken. Not just India and the US but the other two Quad members. Indeed the entire comity of nations seeking to deter and roll back acts of aggression by the twin threats of extremist terrorism and CCP expansionism. Please come back, Real Donald Trump!