New Delhi: Steps taken by the Indian government post the Pahalgam massacre on 22 April, which killed 25 tourists and one local in Jammu and Kashmir’s Baisaran Valley, has forced Pakistan into a costly military mobilization that is draining its fragile economy.
As per assessment, that was independently verified by the Sunday Guardian, the Pakistan military- army, airforce and navy is incurring an estimated $1.5–3.2 million daily, or $45–96 million monthly, in extra expenses since 22 April.
Till now the Indian side has not responded by any military means.
With billions wiped from its stock market post Pahalgalm, Pakistan faces mounting economic pressure as India exploits its vulnerabilities without direct conflict. The Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX), as per official data, has lost $3–4 billion in market capitalization, with the KSE-100 index dropping 2500 points to 114,740.29 on 24 April and 1204 points on 23 April, driven by fears of conflict with India and the IMF’s lowered 2025 GDP forecast to 3.2%.
The rupee, already down 30% since 2023, faces further pressure, eroding investor confidence.
India’s non-military response—suspending the Indus Waters Treaty, closing the Attari border, expelling diplomats, and showcasing military might through the Indian Navy’s BrahMos missile tests and the Indian Air Force’s Exercise Aakraman—has forced Pakistan’s Chief of Army Staff, General Asim Munir, seen as the de facto ruler of Pakistan and the brain behind the massacre in Kashmir, to mobilise the armed forces.
Pakistan’s military is at a state of its highest alert, something that has been accepted by its leaders publicly, anticipating retaliation after Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s public vow to punish the attackers, linked to The Resistance Front, a Lashkar-e-Taiba offshoot.
Based on intelligence assessments by Pakistan agencies and its few allies, given Prime Minister Modi’s track record of fulfilling his commitments through decisive military actions, such as the 2016 surgical strikes and the 2019 Balakot air strike, Pakistan’s military planners are preparing for an imminent Indian retaliation following the Pahalgam terror attack.
As per assessment, the Pakistan Navy is spending $500,000–$1,000,000 daily on patrols around Karachi and Gwadar, driven by fuel for Type 054A/P frigates and Hangor-class submarines, maintenance of C-602 missile batteries, and overtime for sailors. A surface-to-surface missile test on April 24–25 added an estimated $100,000–$500,000.
Similarly, the Pakistan Air Force (PAF) has been incurring $150,000–$400,000 daily for combat air patrols with JF-17 and F-16 jets, costing $10,000–$15,000 per flight hour for 10–20 sorties, plus radar operations, surface-to-air missiles like LY-80, and personnel allowances.
The Pakistan Army, operating along the Line of Control, is having to spend $800,000–$1,800,000 daily on fuel for armored vehicles, logistics for 600,000 troops, and missile systems like the Nasr. Together, these costs total $1.5–3.2 million daily, or $45–96 million monthly, a significant strain on Pakistan’s $7.64 billion 2024–25 defense budget, where the navy ($700–800 million), air force ($1.6 billion), and army ($4–5 billion) face tight budgets.
Pakistan’s $338.37 billion GDP, $13.15 billion reserves covering roughly two months of imports, 9.8% inflation, and a $26 billion external debt due in 2025–26, is ill-equipped to sustain these costs even for a short term.
A month of $2.35 million daily spending (midpoint) on military would consume $70.5 million, or 0.9% of the defense budget and 0.54% of reserves, diverting funds from health (2.7% of GDP) and education (1.7% of GDP) and deepening poverty for over 35% of the population.
This reallocation is likely to exacerbate poverty, affecting over 35% of the total population, and fuel social unrest.
Rising costs for essentials, coupled with disrupted trade and agricultural output, is expected to spark protests in the coming weeks, particularly in urban centers and marginalized regions like Balochistan, where anti-government sentiment is already high.
Unemployment, worsened by economic contraction, and food insecurity from water shortages could further ignite public discontent, potentially destabilizing Pakistan’s volatile political landscape. The unemployment rate in Pakistan, as per 2023 numbers is estimated to be around 6.3% to 7%.
India’s closure of the Attari border is expected to disrupt $2.4 billion in trade, and the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty, which contributes 24% to GDP and uses 90% of water, is going to derail agriculture production significantly.
In the recent past Saudi Arabia has intervened multiple times to provide significant financial assistance to Pakistan, helping it navigate economic crises. In 2023, it deposited $2 billion into Pakistan’s central bank to boost foreign exchange reserves, critical for securing an IMF bailout, and pledged $1 billion for oil imports on deferred payments. Earlier, in 2022, a $8 billion package included oil financing and deposits to stabilize Pakistan’s economy. However, the likelihood of Riyadh sustaining this financial support appears diminished, given Pakistan’s use of state-backed actors, linked to Lashkar-e-Taiba, in orchestrating the Pahalgam terror attack, which Saudi Arabia strongly condemned.
Independent experts estimate Pakistan’s military spending at $1.5–3.2 million daily and $45–96 million monthly. If sustained, this could deplete reserves within months, risking debt default and social unrest, especially given Pakistan’s existing vulnerabilities. This assessment excludes the potential impact of a full-scale military mobilization by India.