The Farmers’ Almanac has released its long-range outlook for winter 2026-27, forecasting what its forecaster describes as a season of sharp contrasts, with an active storm track expected to bring wet and wintry conditions to the southern United States while sudden cold snaps sweep across the North.
The publication summarised its outlook simply: prepare for a winter of snow, sleet and surprises. The forecast was prepared by Caleb Weatherbee using the same core, proprietary weather formula the Almanac has relied on since its founding in 1818, a method first developed by founding editor David Young and passed down through generations of Almanac forecasters, now supplemented by satellite observations, computer modelling and analysis of large-scale ocean and atmospheric patterns.
2026-27 Winter Weather Predictions: Which Regions Face The Wettest And Snowiest Winter?
El Niño is expected to remain a significant influence through the heart of the season, favouring wetter-than-normal conditions from Southern California and the Desert Southwest through Texas, the Gulf Coast and the Southeast, with frequent storm systems, muddy fields and occasional surges of cold air likely to produce sleet, freezing rain or heavy, wet snow when cold air meets abundant moisture.
The Northeast is expected to face one of the season’s most complicated patterns, with coastal communities likely to see more rain or mixed precipitation while inland areas could be hit by several rounds of heavy, wet snow, particularly during January and February.
2026-27 Winter Weather Predictions: How Will The Northern And Western States Fare?
Across much of the West, northern Plains, Upper Midwest and Great Lakes, temperatures are expected to average near normal overall, though fast-moving clipper systems, sudden cold snaps and brief snowy periods remain likely, interrupted by milder breaks. The Pacific Northwest, meanwhile, may experience a more changeable and less dependable snow season than usual, while the northern Plains and Upper Midwest could turn drier at times when the southern storm track dominates.
For the Chicago area specifically, the Almanac projects temperatures around normal for most of the winter across the Great Lakes region, though it cautions the region could still see cold, snowy periods with frequent clipper systems and sudden cold snaps. Officials at the Climate Prediction Centre believe there is a 97 per cent chance the current El Niño pattern will persist into the spring months of 2027, with some forecasters suggesting it could become one of the largest such patterns on record.
2026-27 Winter Weather Predictions: How Reliable Are The Almanac’s Long-Range Forecasts?
The Almanac itself reports an accuracy rate of 80 to 85 per cent for its regional outlooks, though it acknowledges that independent reviews put actual accuracy somewhat lower, while still meaningfully above chance. A 2010 University of Illinois study found the forecasts’ accuracy closer to 52 per cent, roughly the same odds as a coin flip.
This year’s forecast arrives against an uncertain backdrop for the publication itself. The Farmers’ Almanac’s owners announced last November that the more-than-200-year-old publication would be shutting down after its 2026 winter forecast, only for a new owner to step in and save the operation a few months later. The 210th print edition of the Almanac is due to reach stores later this month, offering readers its complete regional forecast alongside its usual calendars, gardening advice and seasonal folklore.
