By Roberto Samora SAO PAULO, Oct 6 (Reuters) – Coffee fields in Brazil's Minas Gerais, the world's largest arabica-producing region, have experienced robust flowering, but experts said fruit development will depend on rainfall, which remains scarce in some parts of the coffee belt. The flowering stage is key for the 2026 crop in top coffee grower Brazil, where Minas Gerais state accounts for roughly 70% of arabica production, according to Brazilian food supply agency Conab. A large Brazilian harvest next year is seen by analysts as crucial to replenishing global inventories depleted by steady demand and below-potential output in Brazil and other producing countries over the past few years. In Minas Gerais' Cerrado Mineiro region, where over half the cultivated area lacks irrigation and temperatures have exceeded 30 degrees Celsius (86 degrees Fahrenheit), there are concerns about rainfall volumes. "What worries us is the weather, since the rains haven't continued," said Fernando Couto, a coffee grower and agronomist working in the area. He noted that while most irrigated farms have already seen flowers open, non-irrigated plantations face greater challenges, with most expecting flowering this week amid dry conditions. LSEG weather data indicates rains arrive in the main coffee belt on October 8 or 9. The southern part of Minas Gerais could receive around 90mm(3.54 inches) of rainfall in the next 15 days, but the Cerrado area is projected to get only around 30mm. Guilherme Vinicius Teixeira from Cooxupe, Brazil's largest coffee co-op, said recent precipitation had induced flowering. "It's still a bit early to say if there will be a good fruit load," he added. Adriano Rabelo, technical coordinator at Minasul co-op, also reported favorable conditions. "For a good harvest next year, obviously we need rain in the coming days," he said. (Reporting by Roberto Samora; Writing by Marcelo Teixeira in New York; Editing by Joe Bavier)
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