Xi’s nuclear buildup demonstrates that Beijing views hegemony as necessary for survival and influence.
In November 1998, Jiang Zemin stood before students at Waseda University in Tokyo and declared: “Even if China develops, it will never bully other countries. It will never seek hegemony forever!”
The words were meant to reassure Japan and the wider world that China’s rise would be peaceful, cooperative, and non-threatening. Today, under Xi Jinping, that pledge rings hollow. Beijing’s rapid nuclear armament and assertive military posture reveal a China that has abandoned Jiang’s vision of restraint in favour of coercive power projection.
Jiang’s Era: The Rhetoric of Peaceful Rise
Diplomatic reassurance: Jiang’s statement was part of the Japan-China Joint Declaration on Friendship and Cooperation, designed to ease tensions after disputes over Taiwan and history.
Economic priority: His leadership emphasized growth and integration into the global order, not confrontation.
Strategic posture: China’s nuclear arsenal remained modest, with a doctrine of minimum deterrence and “no first use.”
Xi’s Era: Nuclear Armament and Assertiveness
Arsenal expansion: China’s warheads have grown from roughly 200 in the early 2000s to over 500 today, with US intelligence projecting 1,000 by 2030.
Technological leap: Development of hypersonic glide vehicles, multiple independently targetable re-entry vehicles (MIRVs), and vast new missile silo fields marks a decisive break from Jiang’s restrained approach.
Regional coercion: Nuclear modernization complements aggressive moves in the South China Sea, Taiwan Strait, and East China Sea, where China’s military posture increasingly threatens neighbours.
Domestic legitimacy: Xi relies on nationalism and military strength to consolidate CCP authority, contrasting Jiang’s reliance on economic growth.
Geopolitical ambition: Jiang sought integration; Xi seeks to reshape the global order.
Security environment: Jiang’s optimism in the post-Cold War era has given way to Xi’s perception of a multipolar, competitive world where nuclear deterrence is essential.
Jiang’s pledge of “no hegemony” was a diplomatic reassurance. Xi’s nuclear buildup demonstrates that Beijing now views hegemony as necessary for survival and influence. This contradiction erodes China’s credibility, fuels regional militarization, and undermines trust in CCP commitments.
China’s trajectory from Jiang’s peaceful rhetoric to Xi’s nuclear assertiveness is not merely a policy shift—it is a betrayal of the very principles Jiang articulated in Tokyo. The promise of a “peaceful rise” has been replaced by a strategy of deterrence and dominance.
For Asia and the world, the lesson is clear: Beijing’s words cannot be taken at face value when its actions point toward hegemony.
Khedroob Thondup, a geopolitical analyst, is the nephew of the Dalai Lama.
