Crude Oil Price Today: India and the world are facing a fresh economic challenge as international crude oil prices remain above $100 a barrel, with the widening US-Iran conflict and attacks around major shipping routes raising fears of a prolonged supply disruption. Brent crude climbed to a four-month high of $108.77 on Friday before easing slightly, keeping pressure on major oil-importing economies such as India.
The latest oil rally comes at a time when the conflict is no longer limited to the Gulf. Shipping risks have increased around both the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea after Iran intensified attacks on vessels and Iran-aligned Houthi forces seized Yemen’s strategic port of Mocha. The developments have added another layer of uncertainty to global energy supplies.
For India, the concerns go beyond petrol and diesel prices. A sustained increase in crude could raise the country’s import bill, increase inflationary pressure and widen risks to the current account. It could also make it harder for the economy to maintain its recent growth momentum.
Crude Oil Price Today: Brent Crude Hits Four-Month High
Brent crude touched $108.77 a barrel on Friday, its highest level in four months. The benchmark remained above $107 during early trading, while West Texas Intermediate crude stayed above $102.
The latest surge followed a sharp jump on Thursday, when both benchmarks gained more than 6%. Brent has now recorded a weekly increase of more than 12%, reflecting growing concerns that disruptions to oil supplies could last longer than previously expected. Reuters reported that Brent had reached a four-month high as the conflict disrupted key energy routes.
The market has reacted strongly to developments on both sides of the Arabian Peninsula. The Strait of Hormuz remains heavily disrupted, while the Houthi advance along Yemen’s Red Sea coast has created fresh concerns around the Bab el-Mandeb shipping route.
US-Israel-Iran War Latest Live News: Why the Red Sea and Hormuz Matter?
The latest escalation has expanded the oil market’s risk beyond the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran’s attacks on ships have disrupted traffic through the Gulf, while the capture of Mocha by Houthi forces has increased the threat to vessels using the Red Sea. The port lies close to the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, another important route for global shipping.
The combination has made traders increasingly concerned about the availability and movement of crude. Any prolonged disruption could force ships to take longer routes, increase transportation costs and further tighten supply.
The threat has already affected financial markets. Indian shares were expected to open lower on Friday as crude moved above $108, with investors worried about higher import costs and the impact on corporate earnings.
Crude Oil Price Today: How Higher Oil Prices Could Hit India
India imports a large share of the crude oil it consumes, making international oil prices particularly important for its economy.
When crude becomes more expensive, Indian refiners have to spend more to secure supplies. That can increase the country’s overall import bill and put pressure on the current account.
Higher energy costs can also spread through the economy. Transportation becomes more expensive, while industries that depend on fuel and petroleum products face higher operating costs. Businesses may eventually pass some of those expenses on to consumers.
That creates a difficult combination for policymakers: higher crude prices can increase inflation at the same time as they put pressure on economic growth.
Economist Sunil Sinha, former Senior Economist at the National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER), said the impact could become significant if the rise in crude prices continues.
“With Brent crude oil prices rising above $100 a barrel again amid renewed geopolitical tensions, India’s economic growth could face pressure in the coming quarter, as higher oil prices raise inflation, import costs and risks to the current account,” Sinha said in an exclusive conversation with ANI.
US-Israel-Iran War Latest Live News: $10 Oil Price Rise Could Hit GDP Growth
Sinha estimated that every $10 increase in international crude oil prices could reduce India’s GDP growth by around 20-30 basis points.
“If oil prices go up by USD 10, then the impact of that increase on GDP would be around, say, 20 basis points to 30 basis points,” he said.
That warning becomes more significant because India’s latest quarterly GDP growth stood at 7.8%.
If crude remains above $100 for an extended period, the economy could face pressure through several channels at the same time. Higher fuel and transportation costs can raise input prices, while a larger oil import bill can put pressure on the external sector.
Crude Oil Price Today: India’s Inflation Risk Rises
One of the biggest concerns from the current oil rally is inflation.
Crude oil influences the cost of transportation, manufacturing and several other parts of the economy. A prolonged increase could therefore make it harder for inflation to remain under control.
The situation also comes at a time when global markets are already reacting to renewed inflation concerns. Reuters reported that the surge in oil prices has pushed bond yields higher globally as investors assess the possibility of stronger inflation and tighter monetary policy.
For India, the impact will depend partly on how long Brent remains above $100 and whether the higher international price eventually feeds into domestic fuel and production costs.
US-Israel-Iran War Latest Live News: China Could Decide How High Oil Prices Go
China is another major factor for the oil market.
As the world’s largest crude importer, China’s buying activity can influence physical oil markets significantly. Recent increases in Chinese purchases have provided additional support to crude prices.
If China continues to buy large volumes while supply routes remain disrupted, the pressure on global oil markets could intensify.
However, a slowdown in Chinese imports could limit the rally by reducing demand at a time when supply concerns are already pushing prices higher.
Crude Oil Price Today: OPEC Cuts 2026 Demand Growth Forecast
The supply concerns come alongside a more cautious outlook from OPEC.
The producer group has reduced its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2026 to 380,000 barrels per day, marking its fifth consecutive downward revision.
OPEC’s oil output also fell by around 640,000 barrels per day in August, according to a Reuters survey. Disruptions to Saudi exports and restrictions affecting Iranian shipments contributed to the decline.
The combination of weaker demand expectations and falling production highlights the unusual conditions currently facing the global oil market.
US-Israel-Iran War Latest Live News: US Crude Inventories Also Fall
US crude inventories declined by 391,000 barrels last week to 424.1 million barrels, according to the Energy Information Administration, while refining activity remained strong.
That provides another indication that the global market is closely watching available supplies as geopolitical risks increase.
Meanwhile, the US national average diesel price has also moved sharply higher, adding to concerns over the broader economic impact of the energy shock.
Crude Oil Price Today: What Happens Next for India?
The biggest question for India is no longer simply whether crude can cross $100. The focus is now on how long oil can remain at elevated levels.
If the conflict eases and shipping routes gradually reopen, the recent price spike could lose momentum. But if attacks continue around the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea, the supply disruption could become more persistent.
For India, a prolonged period of expensive crude could mean a larger import bill, additional inflation pressure and slower economic growth.
With Brent already above $100 and having gained more than 12% in a week, the trajectory of crude prices and the duration of the West Asia conflict will remain critical for India’s economic outlook.
