Tropical Storm Marie strengthened into a hurricane on Wednesday evening in the Pacific Ocean, the National Hurricane Center said, as forecasters in Southern California began weighing what the system could mean for coastal rain, flooding and surf heading into the weekend.
Hurricane Marie was located about 375 miles (600 kilometres) southwest of the southern tip of Baja California, with maximum sustained winds of around 80 mph (130 kph), according to an advisory from the Miami-based centre. The storm had first formed off the coast of Mexico around 1 September before tracking north along the Baja California coastline.
What Is The Current Status Of Hurricane Marie?
Forecast models show the storm continuing to strengthen as it moves north, though most tracks currently have it curving west out to sea rather than approaching the US mainland directly. Impacts from the system, including rain and elevated surf, are expected to reach the Southern California coast around Sunday and Monday.
Could Hurricane Marie Make Landfall In California?
According to National Weather Service meteorologist Rich Thompson, the odds of the storm’s circulation reaching Southern California remain very low. Thompson put the likelihood at under five per cent, and probably closer to one or two per cent, of any part of the system maintaining itself and directly affecting the region. Despite that, he said forecasters were watching the storm closely given the potential for indirect impacts along the coastline.
How Does This Compare To The 2014 Hurricane Marie Swell?
The name Marie carries particular significance for Southern California surfers, after the 2014 Hurricane Marie produced one of the most memorable swells in the region’s recent history, reaching Category 5 strength while positioned in what forecasters described as an ideal spot to send waves toward the coast. This year’s Marie is expected to strengthen further but is not forecast to approach that same intensity, meaning any resulting swell is likely to be more modest by comparison.
What Kind Of Surf And Rain Should Southern California Expect?
Thompson said the region should instead look to 2022’s Hurricane Kay as a closer comparison, given the similarities between the two systems and Kay’s history of producing very high surf and coastal flooding concerns. He added that current projections point to “a good southeast swell of 6-8 feet” for the Ventura and Santa Barbara coastlines, depending on the storm’s exact track. Surfline’s Director of Forecasting, Kevin Wallis, said in a video posted to the outlet’s social media channels that the setup could bring solid, though not giant, surf, since most models currently keep the bulk of the storm’s energy out over open water.
Are Other Pacific Storms Being Tracked At The Same Time?
Marie is one of three tropical systems active in the Pacific this week, alongside Hurricane Lowell, a powerful storm south of Hawaii that briefly reached Category 5 strength before weakening slightly, and Hurricane Karina. Satellite imagery released by NOAA on Wednesday showed all three systems arrayed across the ocean simultaneously, reflecting an active stretch for the basin heading into September.
What Should Coastal Communities Expect Next?
With Marie’s ultimate track still uncertain, forecasters say the coming days will be key to determining how much rain, swell and potential flood risk reach the Southern California coastline. For now, officials are urging residents and ocean-goers to monitor updates as the storm continues moving north along the Baja California peninsula.
