In Politics One Thing Leads to Another

LONDON: Andrew Gwynne, the Labour MP for Gorton and Denton, resigned in January due to ongoing mental health issues and a series of offensive posts in a Labour WhatsApp group. This constituency is roughly 30% of Pakistani ethnicity, and Gwynne courted their vote, becoming Chairman of Labour Friends of Kashmir. If his resignation was a ploy to enable Andy Burnham, the ambitious Mayor of Manchester, to stand for Gwynne’s seat, the ploy backfired. The context here is that Starmer is seen as unpopular and weak even with MPs in his own party; many northern MPs feel his continuing leadership could lose them their seats to ReformUK in a general election. Burnham, who is fond of nationalisation, thinks he could do better, but he needs to be an MP before launching a challenge, which many of Labour's hard-left MPs support. However, his application was blocked 8-1 by Labour’s National Executive Committee (Labour’s ruling body); the excuse given was that it risked a mayoral by-election, which would have been politically risky and expensive.

Now back in Gorton and Denton, a dramatic by-election is planned for 26 February with an interesting array of candidates.

As in several northern constituencies, the Labour vote hinges on the Pakistani community. In Ashton-under-Lyne in 2024, Angela Rayner made promises on Gaza reconstruction to try to maintain her Muslim votes. In Gorton, Labour have chosen Angeliki Stogia, who was born in Greece but moved to Manchester Metropolitan University in 1995 and has remained there since. Stogia is supported by Deputy PM Lucy Powell and Party Chair Anna Turley; she is a progressive thinker and was fast-tracked through the Civil Service into parliamentary positions. She is an accomplished politician.

The new, feisty Green Party led by Zack Polanski fancies its chances against Labour. Originally Polanski was a Liberal Democrat, but they seemed too soft for him, now he is more Jeremy Corbyn than Tony Blair. He campaigns on a pro-anti, anti-racist, Gaza, wealth tax, anti-Brexit, alternative to Labour ticket. He does not dodge questions; Muslim and young British voters (18-25 years) particularly find him charismatic. He has trebled Green Party membership and seems set to split the Labour vote. Polanski has chosen a Manchester plumber and Council member, Hannah Spencer, as his candidate. Spencer sees her challenge as ReformUK; she says Reform will divide the Gorton and Denton community. She believes Labour has abandoned its voters and failed to address the cost of living; she is right, the Greens are attracting disaffected left-wing voters. The Muslim Vote, a group that seeks to unite Muslims and spread the Muslim voice on various issues across the political spectrum, have recently endorsed the Green Party.

The Conservatives have chosen Charlotte Cadden, a retired police detective with the Greater Manchester Police and the Metropolitan Police. Cadden has called for a grooming gang inquiry and serves as a trustee for a charity that supports gender-critical views and advocates maintaining single-sex spaces.

The Liberal Democrats selected Jackie Pearcey, who actually lives in the constituency. She chooses to campaign on local issues that directly affect constituents, such as fixing the NHS and supporting local retailers and businesses.

ReformUK believes they have the right candidate for the right seat, GB News presenter Matt Goodwin. It is hoped Goodwin will get the white working class to turn out in numbers. Goodwin’s grandfather was a working-class Mancunian. He is a well-known polarizing populist and anti-woke voice in opposition circles. Though he has no parliamentary record, as a right-wing activist he has gathered a significant following. He is campaigning to restore traditional values, hard work, meritocracy, love for Britain, defence of the realm, and to reduce mass migration, taxes, and the cost of living. ReformUK is treating this by-election as a referendum on the prime ministership of Keir Starmer.

In the 2024 General Election, turnout in Gorton and Denton was low. Gwynne retained the seat for Labour with a strong majority of 18,555 votes; ReformUK secured second place with 5,142 votes, narrowly ahead of the Greens, who received 4,810, while the Conservatives were placed fifth with 2,688 votes. Today, where all candidates purport to be Mancunian in one way or another, it is obvious that identity politics will play a big part in this crucial by-election.