NEW DELHI: While the global media headlines are dominated by the Ukraine war and the tension in Gaza, the Indo-Pacific is the gravitational centre of global geopolitics today. In the past few months, a range of developments have raised questions about peace and stability in this region and underscores how quickly tensions can rise across the region.
One such example is the Australian complaint about peace being disrupted by Chinese surveillance and research vessels getting detected in the Tasman Sea. An even clearer one are water-cannoning and collision incidents born from the Philippines-China stand-offs near Second Thomas Shoal. More recently, tension is high between China and Japan over the issue of Taiwan. Significantly, the recent tensions in Southeast and East Asia arose closely after the US President’s visit to Malaysia, Japan and South Korea. It surely indicated the renewed interest of Washington in Indo-Pacific affairs. The summit between Chinese President Xi Jinping and US President Trump in South Korea and a compromise agreement between the two leaders on the tariff issue was welcomed by many countries. But Trump avoided his participation in East Asia summit in Malaysia and the APEC summit in South Korea indicating limited interest of Trump in the Indo-Pacific affairs. On the other hand, the US defense secretary during his meeting with the regional leaders did not refrain from alerting the regional countries about the Chinese threat to the region.
It is in the backdrop of such uncertainties surrounding the questions of peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific that the Kalinga Institute of Indo-Pacific Studies organised a roundtable in Delhi. Scholars from across the country deliberated the issue of Indo-Pacific stability in greater depth and pointed out that many countries in the region, including Japan, South Korea, Australia, and even smaller ASEAN states are in the process of hiking their defense budgets. The region seems to be slowly moving towards a new arms race. There are also possibilities of proliferation of nuclear weapons and other forms of weapons of mass destruction.
The Indo-Pacific instability is not caused by unconnected phenomena: it stems from a pattern of Chinese behaviour. Beijing’s strategic posture of regional assertiveness has transformed into open power projection, reshaping maritime geographies, economic dependencies, and security coalitions.
Key factors contributing to the instability include:
- China’s Militarisation: China’s militarisation of artificial islands like on the Mischief Reef, Subi Reef, Fiery Cross Reef, Quarteron Reef, the deployment of naval assets into the Indian Ocean, and its expanding presence into the Western Pacific all pose a potential threat to freedom of navigation.
- Debt-Trap Diplomacy: Beijing has left smaller nations indebted and politically vulnerable by leveraging financial and infrastructural support to cultivate influence. This has led Pacific Island states like Tonga and Samoa, ASEAN nations like Laos, and coastal economies across the Indian Ocean like Djibouti, to increasingly view and negotiate China’s economic power with ambivalence.
- Military Modernisation: The rapid modernisation of the world’s largest navy by hull count, as well as the rapid growth of the Chinese military in hypersonic capabilities, cyber warfare expansion, and ambitious space programs.
As Chinese power and influence appear to be ever expanding, the Trump 2.0 administration seems to be less interestedin continuing the traditional commitment of the United States to the security of the Indo-Pacific region. Washington’s demand for more military expenditure by the regional countries and its ambivalent attitude towards the QUAD and AUKUS are a cause of concern. Moreover, the Indo-Pacific lacks regional security architecture like NATO, and the regional countries seem unable to chart out a clear-cut course to navigate the complicated waters of Sino-US rivalries.
Amid this evolving landscape, India stands at a pivotal point. During the KIPS Roundtable, scholars threw light upon how the region’s search for alternatives to China’s strategic dominance presents New Delhi with a rare geopolitical opportunity, “one that aligns with India’s aspiration to be a net security provider”. India’s geography gives it a natural vantage point over the Indian Ocean. Southeast Asian and Pacific nations prefer India’s democratic credentials, political stability and trust India’s matured diplomatic engagements over China’s coercive diplomacy. India’s deepening ties with Japan, Australia, France, and the United States enable India to maintain its strategic autonomy. Other countries in the region can very well team up with India, not militarily but diplomatically, to prevent major power conflicts and promote regional peace.
However, to capitalize on this moment, “India must address several structural gaps”. India’s biggest challenge is managing a delicate balancing act of this geopolitical opportunity and chart out a strategy to engage China for promoting economic growth, but at the same time defy coercive policies. The future demands India asserting its interests in peaceful ways and building partnerships without getting involved in great power rivalry.
Anindita Mahapatra currently works as the Research and Program Coordinator at Kalinga Institute of Indo-Pacific Studies and is a post-graduate in Journalism and Mass Communication.
