While India considers Myanmar as a crucial part of India’s Neighbourhood First, Act East as well as Indo-Pacific policies, it is an immediate national security, economic imperative.
New Delhi: On the sidelines of Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in China’s Tianjin city, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi met with Myanmar’s junta chief, Senior Gen. Min Aung Hlaing. During the interaction, PM Modi emphasised that “Myanmar is a vital pillar of India’s Act East and Neighbourhood First Policies and there is immense scope to boost ties in areas like trade, connectivity, energy, rare earth mining and security”. Myanmar had been under the state of emergency since 2021 when the military took overpower in the country overthrowing the elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi. Last month, Min Aing Hlaing ended the state of emergency and announced to hold elections by the of the year. He dissolved the State Administrative Council and formed a new interim government and a National Security and Peace Commission and designated himself as its head.
While PM Modi hoped that elections would be held in a fair and inclusive manner involving all stakeholders and pledged support for ‘a Myanmar-led and Myanmar-owned peace process”, there are signs of a potential, albeit fragile, return to electoral politics. Though there will be a return of democratic principles on paper at least, it is expected that the country will remain engulfed in civil war, with ethnic armed groups controlling large territories and engaging in frequent clashes with the military, which is expected to further escalate around the elections.
Already signs of increased violent attacks are visible with the military, especially with the latest capture of Demoso township in Kayah state. Earlier this month, the military recaptured the strategic Shan town of Nawnghkio from the Ta-ang National Liberation Army and moved further towards the ruby-mining town of Mogoke. Additionally, a recent report by ACLED said in a report that the military has been rapidly closing the gap in drone use by buying military grade models from both Russia and China. On the other hand, the Ethnic Armed Organisations (EAOs) are fighting against the military as well as among themselves.
Although the elections are announced, the move has been widely criticised as non-inclusive and manipulative as a way for the military to legitimise its rule through polls. 40 parties, including the National League of Democracy have been excluded from elections and important political prisoners, such as Aung San Suu Kyi remain imprisoned. An 11-member Election Commission is constituted but will serve the interests of the military. New legislation is imposed with prison terms of up to 10 years and even death penalty for any action which seems to disrupt the electoral process.
These political uncertainties have stirred up the opinions in the international sphere, as now the countries are divided on whether they will recognise and legitimise the government that comes to power via elections. Most of the regional players, like India, China, Thailand, Cambodia and Russia, will recognise the government in power, and with the change in stance by the United States, it is expected that even the US will recognise it. On the sidelines of SCO summit, Min Aung Hlaing also met with Chinese President Xi Jinping who assured Beijing’s support for the upcoming elections. This comes in the background of Myanmar being a resource-rich country, especially holding the critical minerals, as well as being in control of a single dominant player.
While India considers Myanmar as a crucial part of India’s Neighbourhood First, Act East as well as Indo-Pacific policies, it is an immediate national security and economic imperative. To address its security concerns, India has already started the work on fencing the borders. One must note here that the borders are not blocked or closed entirely and there are checkpoints and crossings available. The Free Movement Regime (FMR) has been revised to ensure that the movement across borders is recorded through biometrics and not used for illegal activities. Second, while India has started talking to a few EAOs bordering its region, it must push for outcome-based and rigorous dialogues especially with the Arakan Army, which is strategically in control of Rakhine state, a key linchpin to India’s Kaladan Multi Modal Project.
Third, Myanmar is positioned as a gateway for India’s Act East policy, connectivity projects in Myanmar could open alternative routes for trade and influence in Southeast Asia. The India–Myanmar–Thailand Trilateral Highway (IMT Highway), aimed at linking India to Southeast Asia, is currently under construction and 50 per cent of the project is completed. Lastly, it is essential to assess the possibility of extracting rare earth minerals for its resource security. Given the importance of rare earth minerals in high-tech industries and EVs, it is vital for the resources to be extracted and distributed without the dominance of any one regional player.
And in context of the domestic situation, if elections are to be organised, it is important to first facilitate a ceasefire and ensure protection and aid for the people affected and the refugees. Second, it is essential to ensure meaningful democratic participation of all stakeholders but is this possible with continuation of martial law in some areas and exclusion of opposition leaders. There needs to be a dialogue including all stakeholders. The NUG has failed to unify the EAOs or People/Local Defence Forces. There is a general mistrust between EAOs and therefore, the clashes between different EAOs continue to prevail. And since the military ruled the country for decades and not just governed it but owned it by establishing companies, maintaining control over banks and its economic resources. Therefore, any solution for it to be lasting and effective, needs to include all the stakeholders, now running into multiple stakeholders.
* Dr Cchavi Vasisht is Associate Fellow, Chintan Research Foundation.
