US President Donald Trump’s repeated assurances that a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz was close once again drove oil prices down and stock markets higher this week, only for no agreement to actually materialise, according to CNBC.
The pattern has now repeated itself so often that analysts are questioning how much longer investors will keep responding. Trump has claimed dozens of times that the United States is close to an agreement ending the war it began more than five months ago, with investors reacting to many of those claims with bursts of buying on hopes a breakthrough was near, even as the war instead appears to be widening and progress on his stated goal of containing Iran’s nuclear ambitions remains at a standstill, CNBC reported.
What Has Trump Actually Said About A Potential Deal?
Trump struck an especially combative tone earlier this month, calling the Iranian leadership “unbelievably duplicitous” after Tehran denied that talks had resumed, according to CNN. Just days earlier, on 1 August, he had declared the US “locked and loaded and ready” to attack Iran “at levels of Military Terror, Strength, and Power not seen since World War II,” while simultaneously insisting he had “agreed, for the future benefit of the WORLD” to hold off. Pressed by reporters on what made this round of negotiations different from previous false starts, Trump said, “I want to give them every last chance before decapitation.”
What Would A Completed Deal Actually Involve?
Trump has described the negotiations as unfolding in two stages tied to the June memorandum of understanding signed by Iran and the United States. He said talks were moving toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz fully as a first phase, calling the arrangement “not very complex,” while acknowledging that the second phase, denuclearisation, would “take a little while” to complete.
Why Are Markets Growing Warier Of These Claims?
CNBC reported that as oil reserves and munitions stockpiles reportedly dwindle on both sides, analysts are increasingly sceptical that markets will keep responding so strongly each time the administration signals a breakthrough is near. With fighting persisting into its sixth month and repeated deadlines coming and going without a finalised agreement, traders and officials alike are watching closely for signs of whether this latest round of talks will produce a durable outcome or simply extend the now-familiar cycle of optimism and disappointment.
