Israel Election Polls: The road to the October election now runs through a crucial battle inside his own Likud Party for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. As thousands of party members choose the candidates who will appear on Likud’s election list, the result could shape not only the party’s campaign but also Netanyahu’s chance of remaining in power.
Likud has suffered a decline in public support since the October 7, 2023 Hamas attack, and recent polling suggests the party could lose a significant number of seats in the Knesset. The pressure is growing at a time when Netanyahu needs to bring back voters who have moved toward the political centre.
Israel Election Polls 2026: Likud Members and Voters Are Moving in Different Directions
The biggest challenge for Netanyahu comes from a growing gap between Likud’s registered members and the wider group of people who normally vote for the party.
An Agam Labs survey published on August 11 found that 54.9% of Likud voters preferred a more centrist government than Netanyahu’s current coalition. However, only about one-third of Likud’s registered members supported a centre-right government.
Around two-thirds of party members said they preferred a government similar to the existing coalition, which includes ultra-Orthodox and nationalist parties. Analysts say that difference could become important when the party finalises its candidates for the national election.
“The gap between Likud party members and Likud voters and the general public has increased substantially, and this might have a dramatic effect on Netanyahu’s ability to win,” said analyst Nimrod Nir at the Hebrew University’s Agam Labs.
The divide matters because the candidates who perform strongly among Likud’s core membership may not necessarily appeal to moderate and undecided voters outside the party.
Israel Election Polls: Netanyahu Tries to Broaden Likud’s Appeal
Netanyahu has been trying to address that problem by encouraging more moderate candidates to enter the party’s election lineup.
His strategy reflects a broader concern inside Likud that a list dominated by populist and hard-right figures could make it harder for the party to recover support among centrist and centre-right voters.
“As Prime Minister of Israel, I intend to deepen the unity within us,” Netanyahu said in a video statement posted on July 22. “Therefore I will work to establish a broad national government, a stable government that will ensure our security and future.”
However, people familiar with the party’s strategy said Netanyahu’s attempt to reshape the candidate list has not progressed as he had hoped.
Likud has also faced an internal fight over how much influence Netanyahu should have over the final candidate list. Earlier changes to the party’s primary system gave the prime minister greater control over reserved positions, while senior Likud figures opposed some of his proposals.
The internal struggle has added another layer of uncertainty to a party already facing pressure from voters.
Israel Election Polls 2026: Gaza War and Military Service Divide Likud Base
The political disagreement extends beyond the question of who should appear on the Likud list.
The Gaza war has intensified debate over Israel’s military burden, particularly the long-running dispute over exemptions for ultra-Orthodox Jewish men.
The issue has become more sensitive during the conflict because many non-Orthodox Israelis have questioned why they should continue carrying a larger share of military service while some ultra-Orthodox groups seek exemptions.
According to the Agam Labs survey, more than 80% of Likud voters support increasing the number of ultra-Orthodox people serving in the military. Support for the same position was lower, at around 65%, among Likud’s registered members.
That difference again highlights the challenge facing Netanyahu: the priorities of the party’s activist base do not always match those of its wider voter base.
Israel Election Polls: Netanyahu Faces a Tougher Election Battle
The October election is shaping up to be a difficult contest for Netanyahu even before the final candidate lists are settled.
Recent polling has shown Likud struggling to maintain its position as Israel’s dominant political force. A Financial Times report cited a Kan poll that put former military chief Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party ahead of Likud, while Netanyahu also trailed Eisenkot in a question about who voters preferred as prime minister.
Another recent poll projected Likud and Yashar at 23 seats each, while the wider opposition bloc remained capable of challenging Netanyahu’s governing coalition.
The election is scheduled for October 27, 2026, with Netanyahu seeking another term as prime minister after years of political dominance.
Israel Election Polls 2026: Undecided Voters Could Decide Netanyahu’s Fate
One of the most important numbers for Likud may be the share of voters who have not yet decided whom to support.
Around 20% of the electorate remains undecided, according to the Agam Labs research cited in the report. Pollsters and political researchers believe many of these voters include people who previously supported Likud but have become dissatisfied with the party.
“These are the people that are going to decide what’s going to happen with the election,” Gayil Talshir, a political scientist at the Hebrew University, said.
That makes the Likud primary more than an internal party exercise. The candidates selected by its members could determine whether Netanyahu presents voters with a broader, more moderate political platform or one that remains firmly aligned with the party’s harder-right base.
For Netanyahu, the calculation is straightforward but difficult: he must satisfy the activists who control the primary while also rebuilding support among voters who may decide whether Likud returns to power in October.
