With the US seemingly edging out of the Quad, is there a case for a Triad in the making between India, Australia and Japan? This could be a defining grouping in the Indo-Pacific.
The India-Japan annual summit was first held in 2006. It got elevated to a Global and Strategic Partnership as the two leaders agreed to hold the annual summit yearly in each other’s capitals. The 16th edition of the India-Japan annual summit was held in New Delhi last week and will prove to be a watershed event. A vibrant relationship between Prime Minister Modi and the late Shinzo Abe steered this partnership to new heights. In fact, Prime Minister’s “Little Sister” remark for PM Takaichi is seemingly an outcome of those ties.
Takaichi’s visit comes at a time when Washington’s commitment to Indo-Pacific security is shrouded in uncertainty, while China flexes its military muscle. It comes in times of stretched global supply chains in technology and energy as also in the waning phase of the Quadrilateral Dialogue (Quad). For Japan, the situation is tense, with China’s recent export control measures on dual use goods and blacklisting of some companies. This is further augmented by technological dilemmas with Taiwan in focus and militarisation of South China Sea. India continues to be a large market for Japanese goods with an expanding manufacturing base and a good tech talent pool which requires collaborations to achieve scale and absorb sophisticated technologies.
The three aspects which will take centre stage will be defence, technology and energy security as prime movers of this relationship.
India and Japan share a long-standing relationship with several touchpoints in trade, cultural exchanges and defence. India and Japan signed the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) in August 2011. The agreement is meant to abolish 94% of the items traded between India and Japan. Both countries signed a $75 billion currency swap agreement in October 2018 towards improving the currency exchange between the two countries. Acquisition and Cross-Servicing Agreement (ASCA) agreement was signed between India and Japan in 2020, which was meant to enhance the cooperation between the Japan Self-Defence Forces and the Indian Armed Forces for the smooth transfer of supplies and services.
New areas of cooperation of artificial intelligence (AI) including development of new models by Indian software prowess, diverse datasets and Japan’s precision engineering presents a scope for many useful endeavours in the future. This summit has clearly underlined this project-based collaboration for enhancing joint resilience in semiconductors, AI as well as communication technologies. It also promotes cooperation in national internet registry operations, IPv6 adoption and new vistas of internet governance.
Energy security, especially after the recent and ongoing “Hormuz Hustle” has rattled several economies. Japan needs to import about 90% of its energy requirements. Its first commercial nuclear power reactor began operating in mid-1966, and nuclear energy has been a national strategic priority since 1973. It decreased due to the devastating Tsunami and the incident at the Fukushima Plant. Up until 2011, Japan was generating some 30% of electricity from its reactors, and this was expected to increase to at least 40% by 2017. About 15 reactors have restarted, and 10 reactors are currently in the process of restart approval. Several joint ventures in this critical domain are expected in the future.
The unique part of this summit is the joint statement on energy resilience which will strengthen cooperation in strategic stockpiling and reserve mechanisms for crude oil and petroleum products. This will further strengthen collaborations in maritime energy transport value chain, establishing biogas infrastructure and battery related projects for a trusted, resilient and sustainable supply chains.
Japan Bank for International Cooperation (JBIC) and Osaka Gas signed an arrangement for forming a co-investment partnership with Clean Max, called Clean Max Osaka Gas Renewable Energy Pvt. Ltd., to own and operate a 400MW renewable energy portfolio, including existing and new development assets, primarily in Karnataka, over the next three years. Both countries have agreed to enhance their cooperation in biofuels, including through the Global Biofuels Alliance. More collaborations in power infrastructure, electrification and augmentation of existing grids are going to be a game changer in power management. It is notable that both countries are part of the Supply Chain Resilience Initiative (SCRI), a trilateral agreement between India, Japan, and Australia, formally launched in April 2021. It is meant to reduce economic dependence on China by diversifying sourcing, sharing best practices, and building resilient, secure global supply chains across the Indo-Pacific region.
Defence and security are likely to be the fulcrum of this relationship as United States reshapes its Asia strategy. Many agreements in this niche space include the Joint Declaration on Security Cooperation (JDSC) between India and Japan, 2008 and a Memorandum of Defence Cooperation and Exchanges were signed in 2014. An agreement concerning Transfer of Defence Equipment and Technology Cooperation and an agreement on Security Measures for Protection of Classified Military information, were signed in 2015. An Arrangement for Deeper Cooperation between the Indian Navy and JMSDF was signed in 2018. These are foundational waypoints in the bigger security calculus of the future.
With Indian defence industry poised for a huge quantum of exports, there are many weapon systems from Japan which could be a part of Indian inventory for interoperability in the Indo-Pacific. Mogami class frigates, ShinMaywa US-2 and Kawasaki C2 Medium Transport Aircraft (MTA) could be good inductions as they are reportedly being offered. Australia is already acquiring up to 11 Mogami class frigates to replace its old Anzac class ships. Co-development of the UNICORN mast for fitment onboard ships of the Indian Navy is a joint project Bharat Electronics Limited (BEL) collaborating with a Japanese partner. The mast has a feature of enclosing various antennas in a single radar dome, which helps in the reduction of the cross-section and electronic signature of the ship.
Besides all this there is an existing and well-established military exercise matrix. Dharma Guardian is the bilateral army exercise between the armies of India and Japan, which focuses on counterterrorism and semi-urban warfare. JIMEX is the maritime exercise involving Indian and Japanese navies conducting anti-submarine warfare and complex drills. Veer Guardian is the bilateral air force exercise between India and Japan. Shinyuu Maitri is another air force exercise involving transport aircraft of both air forces. India and Japan also participate in the naval Exercise MALABAR, which includes the US and Australia. Indian and Japanese Coast Guards conduct Exercise Sahyog Kaijin to practice maritime law enforcement and pollution response. It is important to note that India-Japan joint statement contains the most direct statement on cross border terrorism from Pakistan. This is unprecedented and unique as compared to statements from recent bilateral meetings.
2026 has been a defining year in world geopolitics. Ukraine war has imposed high financial and military costs on Europe and Washington. Attacks on US bases in the middle east, US tango with Pakistan, increased importance of Indo-Pacific and Iran war has fractured many relationships, besides initiating some faultlines in some. This has also weakened confidence in America’s security guarantees. It is quite likely that the much-acclaimed Chinese “String of Pearls” strategy will be adopted by many nations with rewiring of priorities and pacts.
India remains central to Indo-Pacific discourse. India-Japan Strategic Partnership aims to enhance cooperation in areas like defence, economy, and trade between the two countries. Japan aims to invest 10 trillion yen over the next decade in India. 2+2 meeting between the two great nations from this year will strengthen the relationship further in addition to realising a Free and Open Indo Pacific (FOIP).
As two large economic powerhouses of the world with deep cultural connect, both India and Japan can grow and prosper with an intrinsic linking of joint potential.
With United States seemingly edging out of the Quad, is there a case for a Triad in the making between India, Australia and Japan? This could be a defining grouping in the Indo-Pacific with a great bouquet of critical minerals, supply chain management, technology, market dynamics and interoperability in security. This summit could well be the beginning of this after this hugely successful summit and Prime Minister Modi set to visit Australia this month. The santoor strings have struck the right notes but apparently the mandarins in Beijing and elsewhere would have found them jarring for sure.
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Anurag Awasthi is a veteran, and CEO of Escape Velocity Mediaworks. He is a known policy expert and a columnist who writes extensively on critical technologies, security and geopolitics. Views are personal.
