While Keir Starmer gets to remain in No 10 until at least June, pundits say melodrama could drag on until the Labour Party conference at the end of September.
After a long wait Wes Streeting has resigned as NHS and Health Secretary setting the stage for a Labour leadership contest; hailing from the right side of the Labour party it is expected he is the continuity candidate, but will the Soft-Lefties let him win? Although one unexpected consequence could be that Keir Starmer will enter the leadership ballot, then it is not out of the realms of possibility that he could win. A recent poll suggests that the only candidate that could beat Starmer in the contest is Andy Burnham, Mayor of Greater Manchester.
Josh Simons MP has relinquished his Makerfield seat, a by-election can now be called, Labour’s governing authority the National Executive Committee (NEC) has said this time they will not block Burnham from standing.
Despite Josh Simons having a 5,399 Labour majority in the 2024 general election, in the recent local elections ReformUK wiped out the Labour Party in the ward, winning 24 out of 25 council seats. This will be a fierce and furious contest, ReformUK will throw everything at their campaign, for ReformUK this by-election is a dress rehearsal for the next general election, at the time of writing they have not announced their candidate.
Under the leadership of Nigel Farage ReformUK stormed ahead in the local elections, they decimated Labour and Tory led councils and now are the apex of popularity in the UK. It was a great result for Reform, a good result for the Green Party and the Liberal Democrats. Reform’s relentless campaigning and focus on the negative effects of mass immigration paid off. Farage’s nationalist image since the early days of UKIP (1993) and later the Brexit Party has finally resonated, and the motto “Vote Reform, get Starmer out” seems to have worked.
Across 136 local authorities ReformUK gained 1,453 seats (+1,384net), Labour fell from 2,303 to 1,068, the Greens gained 403, Liberal Democrats gained 137 and Conservatives lost 429. These results show the failure of the governing party to listen to ordinary people and to deliver their manifesto promises.
ReformUK’s success is in contrast to the abject disappointment with the Labour Party and with Sir Keir Starmer personally. Starmer’s landslide majority was almost two years ago, then he promised life was going to get less easy, it did, and with every worsening Labour blamed the previous Conservative government. Since their disastrous defeat they have blamed their own comms, saying their achievements have not been communicated.
An increasing number of Labour Party members blame Keir Starmer, he has been called a barrister robot full of empty words and indecision, now over the magic number of 80 Labour MPs are against the PM. A hitherto unknown MP Catherine West is martialling the MPs to force the PM to set his own program for retirement by September is the suggestion. Challengers for the leadership are Wes Streeting (tough and ambitious with a plan for UK reform), Angela Rayner (fairness for workers and renters), Ed Milliband (energy zealot) and the reputedly charming Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham (very popular in Manchester- until last week when ReformUK secured several victories in Labour-held Manchester boroughs), Rayner and Burnham seem to be supportive of each other, possibly even acting as a team.
Farage and Co. are jubilant, but the Conservative Party intend to take away his success, inadvertently aided by HMRC, who have cleared Rayner of tax-fraud in a timely decision announced on the day that challenges from his own cabinet were expected to the Prime Minister. The Commissioner for Parliamentary Standards egged on by legacy media and some in the Conservative Party, is investigating if a 2024 personal gift to Farage of £5million from crypto billionaire Christopher Harborne, a former Tory donor and ReformUK’s largest single donor, should have been declared. Should the parliamentary authority decide the rules have been breached, the matter could escalate into sanctions, even suspension from the House of Commons, finally the possibility a recall petition could be set in motion in Clacton, Farage’s constituency, needless to say his Clacton supporters would double down to ensure he is re-elected.
Today there are endless references about the “soft-left” taking over, which is an amorphous term with various definitions. In today’s parlance Soft-Lefties are usually Labour voters but can be stretched to include Greens and Lib-Dems, they are in no way a united faction on ideology or policy. They think they are the centre between Corbynism and Blairism, they understand that Labour must swing to the centre to win. They are environmentalists who live comfortably and share an idea of embracing their illusion of unity, promoting civil and human rights, supporting immigration, regulated capitalism and increased public spending; the words social, democratic and progressive often appear individually or attached to each other. Soft-Lefties mostly voted to remain in the EU and would like closer arrangements with Brussels. Notably ReformUK did exceptionally well in the regions that voted for Brexit.
In Scotland the Scottish Nationalist Party (SNP) went down from 64 to 58 parliamentary seats making way for more Greens, more LibDems and introducing 17 ReformUK seats, Labour were reduced to 17 and the Conservatives down to 12. John Swinney leader of the SNP is likely to make a pro-independence coalition with the Greens making the promise of Indy-Ref2 a reality.
In Wales Plaid Cymru the Welsh nationalist party succeeded in stealing Labour’s 100 majority attaining 43 seats just short of a majority, and ReformUK achieved a remarkable 34 seats. Plaid Cymru’s leader aims to make a minority government with accommodations with political rivals for important Senedd votes.
Notably Sinn Féin the Irish nationalist party has pledged to work with the SNP and Plaid Cymru to advance independence movements.
UK has entered the era of multi-party politics with extremes between right (favouring support to the state of Israel) and left (favouring support of to the state of Palestine); ReformUK so far focus primarily on domestic issues within the UK, foreign policy and geopolitics have not yet featured prominently in their political agenda.
ReformUK are appealing to older voters most likely former Conservatives and to the working class most likely former Labour voters. Nigel Farage is charismatic; he engages with the public and vice versa. Not all ReformUK’s councillors are ideal and they may not be well organised yet, but trust in Conservatives and Labour was such a low bar, ReformUK succeeded at the local level.
Meanwhile Keir Starmer gets to remain in No 10 until at least June, pundits are claiming this melodrama could drag on until the Labour Party conference in Liverpool at the end of September.
