Makerfield By Election Polls: Andy Burnham’s return to frontline electoral politics was meant to be a moment of momentum. Instead, it is turning into something more complicated. As the Makerfield by-election approaches, new polling suggests the Greater Manchester Mayor has lost ground in public favourability, raising questions about how much political capital he can still convert into votes.
Makerfield By Election Polls Latest Update
- Burnham still competitive in Makerfield but his popularity has dipped to 30% positive vs 41% negative (-11 net)
- Reform UK’s Robert Kenyon remains the main challenger but vote split weakens their push
- Right-wing fragmentation benefits Labour in a tight race
- Local Labour strength keeps Burnham in contention
- Final outcome depends heavily on turnout levels and last-minute swings
When is Makerfield By Election Polls
The Makerfield by-election is scheduled for Thursday, 18 June 2026, with polling stations open from 7am to 10pm BST. The result is expected in the early hours of 19 June 2026, typically between 2am and 4am, depending on counting speed.
Makerfield By-Election: Key Candidates to Watch
- Andy Burnham (Labour): Leading Labour figure with strong local appeal, though his national favourability has slipped to 30% positive vs 41% negative.
- Robert Kenyon (Reform UK): Main challenger, banking on anti-establishment sentiment but facing vote-splitting on the right.
- Rebecca Shepherd (Restore Britain): Smaller right-wing contender pulling limited but notable support.
- Liberal Democrats & Greens: Minor players, polling in low single digits with minimal impact on the outcome.
Makerfield By Election Polls: Falling Approval Ahead of a Decisive Vote
Once viewed as one of Labour’s most consistently popular figures, Andy Burnham is now recording a negative net favourability rating while recent polling shows 30% of Britons view him positively, while 41% hold an unfavourable opinion, leaving him at -11 overall. That marks a sharp reversal from earlier in the year, when he briefly sat at +9 net approval.
Makerfield By Election Polls: Burnham’s Political Slide From “King of the North” to Pressure Test
Once known as the “King of the North,” Andy Burnham is now facing a sharper political test ahead of the Makerfield by-election while his favourability has fallen to a net -11, with 30% viewing him positively and 41% negatively, marking a clear slide from earlier highs of +9. The shift comes as Labour’s internal tensions rise, turning his comeback attempt into a pressure test rather than a coronation.
Makerfield By Election Polls: Shift Since Labour’s Internal Turbulence
The downturn has accelerated since mid-May, a period marked by internal Labour tensions and high-profile resignations during that phase, Burnham’s support began to erode across multiple voter groups, including Labour’s 2024 base, where negative sentiment has risen by eight percentage points to 22%.
Makerfield By Election Polls: Impact on Labour Voter Sentiment
Even among traditional Labour supporters, Burnham’s standing is no longer as stable as it once while positive ratings have held relatively steady, the increase in disapproval suggests a growing divide between his regional appeal and his broader national image.
Makerfield By Election Polls: The Makerfield Battleground & Rising Pressure
The Makerfield by-election has become more than a local contest. It is now viewed as a test of Labour’s internal balance and Burnham’s political relevance with Reform UK’s Robert Kenyon and smaller right-wing challengers in the mix, the vote is increasingly shaped by fragmented opposition rather than a straightforward two-party race.
Makerfield By Election Polls: What the Numbers Mean for Burnham’s Future
For Burnham, the stakes extend beyond Makerfield whereas a win would still strengthen his position as a national figure, but declining favourability suggests a tougher path if he ever seeks a wider leadership role. The question now is whether his local strength can outpace a shifting national mood.
