Neither the President nor the GOP currently offers policies that resonate with voters, as inflation and the cost of living remain elevated and war remains unpopular.
With fewer than five weeks until the November 3 midterm elections, pollsters forecast significant losses for President Donald Trump’s Republican Party. Although Republicans currently hold majorities in both the House of Representatives and the Senate, Mr Trump’s approval rating has declined to just under 40%. As a result, Democrats have gained momentum and are now favoured to regain control of the House and potentially secure a Senate majority.
THE NUMBERS
Republicans currently hold a narrow 219-214 majority in the House of Representatives. Despite Republican-led redistricting efforts designed to provide an advantage, pollsters consider Democrats more likely than not to regain the majority. Brazen gerrymandering by the party in power at the state level has become a bipartisan practice, significantly reducing the number of genuinely competitive or “toss-up” districts within the ambit of the two-party system.
The Republican Party holds a 53-47 majority in the Senate, meaning Democrats must gain four seats to achieve a majority. Key Democratic targets include Maine and North Carolina, while Iowa, Ohio, Texas, and Alaska are also considered competitive. However, Democrats must also defend vulnerable seats in New Hampshire, Michigan, and Georgia.
Mr Trump’s unpopularity, driven by factors such as the Iran war, tariffs, immigration missteps, failure to curb anti-immigrant rhetoric, and the rising cost of living, has positioned Democrats as strong contenders for the House and created a narrow Senate opportunity.
The Cook Political Report identifies 21 toss-up House races, 16 of which are currently held by Republicans. Even the Senate, where the electoral map typically favours the GOP, appears less secure. Senator Ted Cruz (R, Texas) has suggested the GOP could lose five to seven seats, attributing the risk to complacency among Republican voters and increased enthusiasm on the left.
The GOP, however, has a significant advantage in the campaign war chest. The RNC ($130 million+ on hand) dwarfs the DNC ($16 million), and Mr Trump’s super PAC ($403 million) has no Democratic equivalent. Closer to election day, this disparity alone could be the difference maker.
The number of genuinely competitive or “toss-up” House seats has reached a ten-year low, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis, due to increasing polarization and gerrymandering. Nevertheless, a strong electoral wave for either party could shift “lean” or “likely” seats into contention. With “independents,” who propelled Mr Trump and the GOP to victory in 2024, withering, Democrats remain confident about winning the House. Republicans, on the other hand, are attempting to portray Democrats as far-left radical socialists in an effort to retain or expand their base.
Another notable aspect of this election is that, despite Mr Trump’s low approval ratings, the public views Democrats similarly unfavourably (59% versus 58% unfavourable, according to a Pew survey). The Democratic lead in the generic ballot is narrower than during the 2018 wave (6 points compared to 8). Analysts, however, see conditions conducive to a Democratic wave, but internal divisions and financial disadvantages may help Republicans mitigate potential losses.
THE MESSAGING
Historically, the President’s party tends to lose seats in midterm elections, but additional factors are influencing the current cycle. While contested Senate seats in Maine and North Carolina were expected to be competitive, conventional wisdom suggested that states such as Alaska, Ohio, Texas, and Iowa would remain secure for Republicans. However, these states are now considered at risk.
Mr Trump’s tariff policies have made Iowa, a predominantly agricultural state, more competitive. Additionally, his endorsement of Ken Paxton, a candidate facing significant controversy and impeached by the Texas House of Representatives, has added uncertainty in Texas, particularly after Mr Trump withdrew support from long-serving incumbent John Cornyn in the GOP primaries.
Although Mr Trump has excellent political instinct and endurance, evident by his thumping victory in the 2024 presidential election after losing to Joe Biden in 2020, he has an uncanny knack for acting against his own and his party’s political interests. His involvement in the 2020 Georgia Senate race proved fatal for the GOP. This time, he has injected himself into many races, and all but 4 of his endorsed primary (24/24 Senate and 214/218 House) candidates have won to appear on the main ballot.
Republicans highlight several legislative achievements, including preventing significant tax increases, advancing bureaucratic deregulation, implementing energy and border security policies, and reducing government waste (through DOGE) and fraud. Mr Trump has also held an upper hand on the popular culture war issues, such as his strong stand against transgenerism, environmentalism, and reining in radical left ideology on college campuses with funding cuts, etc. The GOP intends to emphasize these accomplishments while characterizing Democratic policies as far left or socialist.
This messaging strategy contributed to President Trump’s return to the White House in 2024 and secured Republican control of both congressional chambers. However, little evidence suggests this approach will be effective in 2026 and beyond. Neither the President nor the GOP currently offers policies that resonate with voters, as inflation and the cost of living remain elevated and war remains unpopular.
President Trump’s approval rating remains low, partly due to the Iran war’s impact on gas and energy prices. He has encouraged GOP candidates to campaign as though he is on the ballot, but this strategy has backfired in some competitive districts. Several lawmakers have distanced themselves from his $5,000 payment proposal. A Florida congresswoman criticized Mr Trump’s deportation policy, and some House candidates in close races have opposed him on a war-powers vote.
For context, however, in 2018, when Mr Trump’s approval rating was in the 40s, Republicans lost 40 House seats but gained two Senate seats.
FLAWED SURVEYS CREATE POLLING SCEPTICISM
The RealClearPolitics average currently favours Democrats 50.5% to 41.9% in the generic congressional ballot. However, a polling lead does not guarantee a House majority, as district maps often require Democrats to achieve a substantial national margin to translate votes into seats. For example, in 2012, Democrats received more total House votes nationally, yet Republicans retained the majority of seats.
Recent instances of biased and fabricated surveys have also fuelled scepticism about polling survey accuracy. In Wisconsin, a fabricated poll claimed Democratic Socialist Alliance (DSA) candidate Francesca Hong led David Crowley by more than 20 points in the Democratic primary for governor. In reality, Hong lost by less than one percentage point. Similar false polls appeared in the Nevada governor’s and Los Angeles mayoral races. In Michigan, where the DSA’s Abdul El-Sayed won the Democratic Senate primary, the victory margin was far more competitive than the pollsters had predicted.
Earlier in August, Median Strategies told the Los Angeles Times it had fabricated polling results. The Associated Press reported that Median Strategies was “a previously unknown organization” responsible for posting at least three fake polls across three states. The episode is wreaking havoc in an election with real stakes and diminishes confidence in such surveys.
Charles Franklin, a Professor of Law and Public Policy at Marquette Law School, publicly addressed the incident’s implications for future vetting practices among pollsters and journalists. His commentary offers insight into potential strategies to prevent similar occurrences.
In response to Mr Trump’s callings, Republicans held a rare midterm convention in Dallas, Texas, in September. The move was widely seen as an effort to nationalize the midterms around Trump’s record. A small but visible group of Democratic Socialists winning primary elections has given the GOP opportunities to associate the entire Democratic Party with fringe policy positions, such as abolishing police, prisons, and Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), or defunding the Pentagon, even though their representation in Congress would remain below double digits.
After years of significant progressive policy shifts under the Biden and Obama administrations, optimism grew about the potential for a reversal. However, developments over the past 20 months have diminished expectations for long-term meaningful changes socially, politically, and economically. In an extremely polarized nation, the period following President Trump’s tenure, extending beyond 2028, is projected to present substantial challenges regardless of the party in power.
- The author is a Chicago-based award-winning journalist.
