It cannot be glossed over that Iran has prepared for half a century against all odds for a war with the United States.
Oil, power and war in West Asia
NEW DELHI: The map of West Asia is a maze, geographically and demographically. The complexity is augmented by the choke points for sea lanes impacting trade and energy security. Paradoxically, oil remains the central driver of conflict as well as prosperity. Bulk of this region has thrived as monarchies through the years. Some are now hereditary, constitutional monarchies and some remain unitary, absolute monarchies.
Kuwait has the Sabah dynasty as the ruling family since 1756. Modern Kuwait is a constitutional monarchy, with the Emir sharing power with a legislature, which is elected. Despite the presence of the legislature, however, the dynasty retains absolute power. The House of Saud is the ruling family of Saudi Arabia. The region evolved into the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia in 1932 and wields considerable influence in the Middle East. The timeline of Qatar’s modern history begins in the 18th century, when all tribes gathered under the rule of Al Thani family. This paved the way for more stability in the country and the forging of balanced relations with different influential parties in the region.
The UAE has a chequered history of monarchy. The Qasimi dynasty was able to expand its hegemony along the coast, and by the late 18th century it emerged as the dominant tribal faction. The Bani Yas tribal confederation of Al-Ain and Liwa was largely centred in the region’s interior. Under the leadership of the Nahyan dynasty of Abu Dhabi, the Bani Yas has been a powerful force since the mid-19th century. A series of agreements were signed in the 19th century to include a treaty of peace in 1820, a maritime truce in 1853 and agreements in 1892 with the British to become the Trucial States.
Abu Dhabi has been ruled by the Nahyan dynasty since 1800, Ajman ruled by the Nuaimi dynasty since 1816 and Dubai, ruled by the Maktoum dynasty. Ras al-Khaimah and Sharjah were ruled by the Qasimi dynasty since the 18th century, and Umm al-Quwain was ruled by the Al-Mualla dynasty since 1700. Fujairah, an area under Sharqi control that had previously been considered a part of Sharjah, became the seventh Trucial State.
Qatar and Bahrain decided to become independent sovereign states, and the former Trucial States, excluding Ras al-Khaimah, announced the formation of the United Arab Emirates. On 2 December 1971, six emirates formed the UAE, with Ras Al Khaimah joining in February 1972.
Oman was led by rulers called Imams. These leaders were chosen by religious scholars and were seen as both political and spiritual guides. From the Nabhani dynasty to the Yarubi dynasty, which took over in 1624, Oman became a strong trading power, especially in the Arabian Sea. They built many forts and expanded Oman’s influence. This dynasty ruled until 1749. Since 1749, Oman has been ruled by the Al Bu Said dynasty, with the Sultan at the helm.
The Emirate of Transjordan was founded on April 11, 1921, and became the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan upon formal independence from Britain in 1946. King Abdullah forged a viable state out of a tribal, nomadic society and ruled for three decades. He laid the institutional foundations of modern Jordan, establishing democratic legitimacy by promulgating Jordan’s first Organic Law in 1928 with elections in 1929. King Abdullah II is the current head of monarchy in Jordan.
The Mutawakkilite Kingdom of Yemen was a theocratic monarchy in North Yemen that existed from 1918 to 1962, post-independence from the Ottoman Empire. It was an absolute theocratic monarchy ruled by the Zaidi Imams of Hashemite lineage. The monarchy was replaced by a republic, which later unified with South Yemen in 1990.
Coincidentally, Iraq, Syria, Yemen and Iran do not have monarchies anymore and a conflict with the United States has been an integral part of their history. All these countries have permanent US troops presence as well, less Iran which had been a monarchy till 1979.
Iran has often stood out as a Shia stronghold with oil reserves and a nuclear programme. Iran shares its land borders with seven countries, straddling trade routes and connecting it to the southern Caucasus as well as the energy-rich Central Asia. It shares its maritime borders with six countries with a strategic Makran coast and the wherewithal to control the pivotal Strait of Hormuz. It has a population of 93 million which is dispersed in its 31 provinces. The population is an eclectic mix with Persians, Kurds, Lurs, Baluch, Mazandaranis, Gilaks, Talys, Hazaras and so many more. With Persians in the Centre, all the others reside on the peripheral extremities and thereby subject to subversion or instigation.
Ali Khamenei was the ideologue and Iran’s Supreme Leader since 1989. His death by a US and Israeli air strike marks a turning point not only for Iran, but for all monarchies in the region. It is important to understand the doctrine of Velayat-e-Faqih, a doctrine formalised by his predecessor Khomeini, which elucidates the best jurist holding the supreme authority. This system is conceptually greater than a monarchy as the absolute power remains centered with the religious leader.
While Khamenei’s death will be celebrated as martyrdom and the baton passes on to Mojtaba Khamenei, is this appointments deviation from the politico-religious doctrine or is it only for continuity during this crisis? Does this also signify the strong roots of the IRGC in selection of hardline successors or is it more of a politico-religious monarchy which has now been affirmed? This transition of power will take time, as the pace of Iranian attacks have already started to slow down.
The maze is even more complicated as the powerful Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) may not initiate a ceasefire and risk aligning with Israel. All six countries in the GCC are powerful monarchies. A response to maintain autonomy without joining the war or leaning towards the US is akin to walking on eggshells. As Iran selectively targets the region's hyperscalers, luxury hotels, airports and other critical infrastructure, there would be options to hit sources of water as well as symbols of oil-induced glitz in the Middle East.
As one week of Operation Epic Fury rages on, with the war spilling over to the sea, tankers set ablaze and long-range vectors being used for large scale devastation, several red lines have been crossed. A long drawn intense confrontation, controlled and localised confrontation to avoid energy shocks or silent activation of armed proxies, necessitating the proverbial “boots on ground” option remain. It cannot be glossed over that Iran has prepared for half a century against all odds for a war with the United States. Navigating this conflict and Gulf ties will be increasingly difficult for energy hungry, rising economies like India and China.
George Orwell had opined “The War is not meant to be won; it is meant to be continuous.” In this context, monarchies can turn into anarchies rather quickly. This may not augur well with the overall geopolitics, energy supply fault lines and more importantly with the United States semiquincentennial later this year.
Anurag Aswathi is a veteran, and CEO of Escape Velocity Mediaworks. He is a known policy expert and a columnist who writes extensively on critical technologies, security and geopolitics. Views are personal.
