Pakistan projects diplomatic success, but deepening unrest in POJK, Balochistan and Waziristan exposes widening internal fractures.
New Delhi; If one reads the headlines or watches the news in Pakistan, one would think that all is hunky-dory there. It is basking in its moment in the sun with its diplomatic success as a peace-broker, and as poster boy for Donald Trump. It has also received a fresh tranche of an IMF loan, and is showcasing its success at managing ties with USA, China, Saudi, Turkey and even Bangladesh. On the surface, all is well. Its problems are confined to the back pages, where small columns tell of almost daily attacks in Baluchistan and Waziristan, and the raging unrest in Pakistan Occupied Jammu and Kashmir, (POJK). Its fissures are visible there, but kept out of sight.
Though Waziristan and Baluchistan have been on the boil for years, it is in POJK that a fresh wave of unrest has emerged. The problem began innocuously enough, with protests over rising prices, fuel and electricity shortages, and anger at the reservation of 12 seats in the POK legislative assembly for outsiders. They were legitimate demands but soon morphed into something bigger. Led by the Joint Awami Action Committee, (JAAC) people took to the streets, as years of repression and exploitation burst to the surface.
That was not really surprising. POJK for all its tom-tomming of being ‘Azad Kashmir’ has been systematically suppressed and exploited over the years. It is dependent on food and fuel from outside, has little industry or infrastructure and few opportunities for the locals. All decisions are made in Pakistan and not through local representatives. Even the electricity it generates – around 5000 MW of hydroelectric power – has over 4500 MW diverted to Pakistani Punjab, while it itself faces 18-hour power cuts.
Pakistan has responded to these protests with its usual brutality. Over 40 protestors were killed in police firing and many have simply disappeared. The JAAC – which is composed of largely traders, businessmen, farmers and local representatives – was declared a terrorist group and its leaders arrested. And in an ironic twist of events, many of the protestors waved Indian flags and called upon India to help them.
The shoe is squarely on the other foot now. It will be tempting to intervene but one should not fish in troubled waters (less the occasional statement and diplomatic protests). It could merely open a Pandora’s box with little tangible benefit. After all, Kashmir has just come under control – in spite of the occasional attack –, and we should consolidate our gains there and focus on complete economic and psychological integration.
The events in POJK find strong echo in Baluchistan. That province too faced decades of repression, exploitation and blatant violation of human rights. But the freedom movement there has now spiralled beyond control. In the past week itself, 42 security personnel were killed in three major attacks by the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA). 18 policemen were taken hostage and then executed in Ziarat; 11 soldiers were killed in a suicide attack on an army convoy in Musakhail district. And the BLA claimed to have killed 30 sailors in an audacious attack on a Coast Guard camp in Jiwani, just an hour’s drive from Gwadar port. Members of the BLA’s elite Majeed Brigade drove an explosive laden Mazda into the gates of the camp and detonated it, while troops of its Fateh squad launched a coordinated attack on the dazed survivors. Although the BLA claimed responsibility and released video footage of this dramatic attack, Pakistan has not acknowledged or denied it.
The attacks of the BLA are increasing directed at the CPEC projects – especially Gwadar port and the tenuous road running from it through the rugged mountains of Baluchistan towards China. This is widely seen as one that is being used to divert resources away, while the locals themselves get no benefits from the project. As per a popular refrain, all the locals could do were to establish puncture shops and dhabas along the highway, with the lucrative contracts going to the Chinese and outsiders. That road and Chinese investments are now being increasingly targeted. Following an assurance made by the Army Chief to China, Pakistan has deployed two full divisions for its protection, but it is increasing difficult to secure the lines of communications in those rugged desolate mountains. BLA attacks have only intensified – and army actions, targeting locals have increased public anger. The campaign is now acquiring largely ethnic overtones and Pakistan seems to be losing its hold on the restive province.
To its north, Waziristan seems to be in even greater turmoil. BLA attacks seem to be coordinated with the activities of the Tehrik e Taliban Pakistan (TTP) there. As TTP actions have intensified over the past few years, Pakistan has been drawn into conflict, not just with the TTP, but with the Taliban in Afghanistan itself, whom they accuse of supporting the TTP. A spate of TTP attacks led to a series of Pakistani air strikes inside Afghanistan in February, and a two-week long ‘open war’ between Afghanistan and Pakistan. The fragile ceasefire that followed broke down almost as soon as it was signed, and collapsed completely this week with fresh Pakistani air strikes in Paktika, Paktia and Kunar provinces inside Afghanistan, apparently in retaliation for a string of TTP attacks. These airstrikes have attained little but kill civilians on ground, and the target is no longer just the TTP bases. It is the Taliban military infrastructure as well which has led to a complete breakdown in relations between Pakistan and Afghanistan.
In spite of its much-touted OPERATION GHAZAB LIL HAQ, Pakistan has been unable to dent TTP activities which have now spread from Waziristan all the way to Karachi and Islamabad. Pakistan’s policy of establishing the Taliban in Afghanistan, hoping for a pliant, eternally grateful regime that would provide it with “strategic depth” has rebounded spectacularly. Instead, it seems that it will be Pakistan that could provide strategic depth to Afghanistan.
Of course, it is India that is painted as the hidden hand behind all that is wrong in Pakistan. All terrorists are designated as ‘Fitna Al Khwarij’ – Indian sponsored proxies, who are behind all the unrest. There is also a widespread narrative that it staved off India in the last confrontation of May 25, which has strengthened the role of the army and given it a dangerous sense of misplaced confidence. The Army is more powerful than it has been in decades. And, while the events in POJK, Waziristan and Baluchistan are conveniently swept beneath the carpet, public attention is diverted to India, which is blamed for everything from terrorist acts to floods to drought. This is especially visible in the debates over India’s holding in abeyance the Indus Water Treaties, which has worried them more than they admit and even raised calls of going to war over it.
At the same time, saner voices are advocating a return to normalcy in Indo-Pak ties. Back-channel diplomacy and talks could be underway, though denied by both governments. These talks are essential and should be sustained. And though Pakistan, still buries its head in the sand on the many insurgencies raging from Baluchistan to Waziristan and POJK, the army responds with its usual high-handedness that alienates the people even more. In spite of its travails, Pakistan is strong enough to hold on to its restive provinces. By the fissures that have been created are widening, and the chasm is growing deeper. They could use a bandage to hide it – or push it to the back pages – but till they address the core issues, they will never be able to heal or truly mend the fractures within.
*Ajay Singh is the international-award winning author of 8 books and over 250 articles. A prolific writer and public speaker, he is a regular contributor to The Sunday Guardian.
