London: There was a certain poetic irony in seeing ReformUK broadcast their press conference from Millbank Tower, the former Conservative Campaign HQ. The event was billed as “Women for Reform,” a stand-up against domestic abuse and violence against women. But why did they decide to have only women speakers? Surely men should want reform here too. And why no mention at all of the Pakistani grooming gangs that are responsible for some of the worst abuses against teenage girls? Pakistan’s influence in the UK is mostly missing from ReformUK’s narrative.
As is typical with ReformUK’s past campaigning, the conference focused on what is wrong with the country. Some folks are beginning to find the recurring theme of banging on about the dire state of the UK’s irresponsible immigration policies tiresome—without providing any solutions. With 50,000 illegal small boat migrants since Keir Starmer took office, it is solutions the UK needs.
Reform are not particularly discerning about their candidates. Nearer the 2029 election, there will be greater public scrutiny about their selection process. But there is no doubt that Nigel Farage is the most identifiable face in UK politics, much more so than his likely competitors such as Conservative Robert Jenrick. Farage is an undisputedly brilliant figurehead, but with questionable leadership skills. He is known not to trust anyone, yet wants everyone to trust him, and he has little experience of managing a team—as demonstrated by Zia Usuf’s chaotic exit as chairman and return the next day as DOGE supremo in June.
It seems unlikely that Reform will be expecting their inexperienced MPs to be Ministers. They may adopt the Direct Ministerial Appointments method and appoint domain experts to the House of Lords for Secretary and Ministerial posts.
It was noticed that at a January fundraiser at Oswald’s private members’ club in Mayfair, some donor tables were made up of donor defectors from the Conservative Party. Nigel Farage was in sparkling form and sang the MAGA anthem by the Village People. In Q1 2025, ReformUK raised £1,488,100—largely from the fundraiser—about one-fifth of the Tory war chest raised so far.
The right wing of the UK is very divided. Two foundational members of ReformUK have set up their own independent actions promoting anti-immigration policies, which are missing from ReformUK. Ben Habib leads the AdvanceUK Party, and Rupert Lowe has begun his own Restore Britain movement. Lowe has a competitive number of followers on X.
On Wednesday, Farage enjoyed breakfast with US VP JD Vance, who is on a busman’s holiday in the picturesque Cotswolds. Jenrick met with Vance on Tuesday evening; surprisingly, Kemi Badenoch could not make a meeting due to scheduling issues. Can we conclude Vance is consolidating right-wing friendships? Vance also has a long-standing personal friendship with Foreign Secretary David Lammy. They attended Mass together in Washington earlier this year, and the familiarity during the stay at Chevening was evident.
The Conservatives are in a continuing state of regicide, with Robert Jenrick snapping at leader Kemi Badenoch’s heels (Conservative voting intention is down to 16%). The Tory Conference in early October will be a decisive factor for the leadership. A previous leadership contender, James Cleverly, is likely to run for London Mayor in 2028. It is predicted that Sadiq Khan will want to return to frontline politics.
With Labour sliding in the polls (20%) and facing a direct challenge from independent MPs Jeremy Corbyn and Zarah Sultana’s newly formed YourParty, right now ReformUK—polling at over 30%—are the default option party that people weary of the Tories and Lib Dems will adopt in 2029.
