The Russia-Ukraine war is increasingly shifting towards long-range attacks on cities and critical infrastructure, with both sides expanding their ability to strike targets far from the frontline. Ukrainian defence technology adviser Serhii Beskrestnov has warned that the coming winter could be particularly difficult for Kyiv if Russian attacks damage electricity, water and heating networks.
Beskrestnov, known by his call sign Flash, said the frontline conflict remained largely deadlocked while the ability to conduct deep strikes was growing. He warned that the expanding use of missiles and drones was putting civilians at greater risk.
Why Is Kyiv At Risk This Winter?
According to Beskrestnov, Russia could carry out sustained attacks on Kyiv’s energy infrastructure during the winter months. He said Russia was producing more than 100 high-speed ballistic missiles a month, raising concerns about the country’s ability to repeatedly target essential services.
He estimated that disruption to electricity, heating and water could affect 2 to 3 million people in Kyiv. He suggested that city authorities should consider preparations for evacuating vulnerable residents, particularly elderly people, if a major infrastructure crisis develops. Russian President Vladimir Putin has also said that Moscow’s military had been instructed to prepare for mass attacks against Ukrainian energy facilities.
Ukraine Plans More Deep Strikes Against Russia
Ukraine is also preparing to significantly increase its long-range attacks. Beskrestnov said Kyiv had a target of reaching 1,000 drone attacks a day, compared with around 300 currently. Ukrainian strikes have increasingly targeted Russian military facilities, factories, warehouses and oil refineries. Kyiv has also indicated that its drone campaign could disrupt Russian civil aviation by forcing airports to suspend operations when drones approach their airspace.
Beskrestnov said Ukraine’s objective was not necessarily to hit airports directly, as the presence of drones near an airport could be enough to trigger closures.
Russia Expands Shahed Drone Production
Russia has been increasing both the quantity and capabilities of its long-range attack drones. Beskrestnov said Moscow launched around 2,500 jet-powered Shahed drones in August, compared with approximately 1,500 in July. Russia is also reportedly preparing to manufacture tens of thousands more drones in 2027, including both jet-powered and slower piston-engine variants.
The newer drones are faster than earlier Shahed models, making them more difficult for Ukraine’s existing interception systems to counter.
AI-Powered Drones Add To Ukraine’s Concerns
Another emerging threat is the reported use of artificial intelligence in Russian drones. Ukrainian investigators concluded that a Molniya drone involved in an attack near a Zaporizhzhia gas station had been guided using AI rather than conventional radio control. Beskrestnov said the technology could eventually be incorporated into Shahed drones. If such systems operate without radio communication, Ukraine’s extensive electronic-jamming network could become less effective against them.
Ukraine is developing its own autonomous drones, but Beskrestnov acknowledged that Russia currently appears to have an advantage in production scale.
Ukraine Faces Pressure On Air Defence
Ukraine’s ability to defend its cities is also under strain. US-made Patriot systems remain among the country’s most important defences against ballistic missiles, but Kyiv is seeking additional interceptors ahead of winter. Beskrestnov said he was uncertain whether Ukraine would be able to secure enough Patriot interceptors to fully protect its major cities from a sustained Russian missile campaign.
At the same time, Ukrainian companies are developing interceptors specifically designed to counter faster jet-powered drones, although several systems are not yet ready for mass production.
Civilian Casualties Rise Amid Long-Range Attacks
The growing focus on cities and infrastructure has coincided with a rise in civilian casualties. United Nations figures cited in the report showed that 437 civilians were killed and 2,610 injured in Ukraine in July, making it the deadliest month for civilians since March 2022. Beskrestnov described the conflict as increasingly becoming a war of cities and infrastructure, arguing that the growing power of offensive weapons is making it increasingly difficult for air-defence systems to keep pace.
