SCO is a 10-member regional multilateral cooperation, established in 2001 in Shanghai by China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan.
As the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) turns 25, the Bishkek summit comes against the backdrop of unpredictable geopolitical headwinds. Prime Minister Modi’s visit to Uzbekistan and subsequent attendance at the SCO summit in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan, comes amid a period of global turmoil driven by Russia’s prolonged war in Ukraine and a tumultuous US-Iran conflict. Interestingly, both Russia and Iran are members of the SCO. These conflicts have had a major impact on the global economy. The sporadic yet consistent Chinese muscle flexing amid these geopolitical shifts and strategic realignments has added further complexity to the landscape. The SCO is a 10-member regional multilateral organisation established in 2001 in Shanghai by China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. It evolved from the original ‘Shanghai Five’, which was conceptualised in 1996 to build military confidence and essentially reduce military posturing along China’s borders with the erstwhile USSR.
Uzbekistan joined in 2001, as the Shanghai Five evolved into a formal grouping. The SCO Charter was signed in St Petersburg in June 2002 and entered into force in 2003. India became an observer in 2005, a full member in 2017, assumed the presidency in 2022 and hosted the Heads of State Summit in July 2023. The grouping’s two newest members are Iran and Belarus, which joined in 2023 and 2024, respectively. Afghanistan and Mongolia serve as observer states. Additionally, the SCO’s 15 dialogue partners reflect the growing interest in the grouping. Egypt, Qatar, Kuwait, UAE, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Nepal, Sri Lanka, Maldives, Myanmar, Cambodia, Lao PDR, Azerbaijan and Armenia form a mixed group of oil economies, island nations, European and Asian states, and landlocked countries. The motto of the summit is ‘25 years of the SCO: Together Towards Sustainable Peace, Development and Prosperity’.
The choice of this motto indicates both an ambitious goal and a test of regional cooperation. President Xi Jinping is scheduled to visit Egypt after the summit, following a decade-long gap, signalling an intent that goes beyond diplomatic symbolism. This region has always been in focus for various reasons — geographical as well as geopolitical. The 19th century witnessed ‘The Great Game’, which heralded the great-power rivalry in Central Asia. Harold Mackinder propounded the ‘Heartland Theory’ in the early part of the 20th century, in which he stated that the vast interior landmass of Eurasia is the key to global dominance. He divided the globe into the pivot area, which consisted of Central Asia; the Inner Rimland, which included Western Europe, India and China; and the rest of the world in the Outer Crescent. This theory obliquely focused on logistics, connectivity and, more importantly, natural resources. Various alliances have been forged for this middle corridor and power projection in the region over the ensuing years, in keeping with the cyclical rise and fall of empires.
There is a school of thought that the ongoing Ukraine conflict has deeply impacted Russia’s influence in the Central Asian Republics (CARs), altering the traditional geopolitical landscape. Some analysts also argue that this has created opportunities for China through its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Furthermore, the West perceives the growing alignment between Russia and China as a threat, contributing to a complex security environment in Central Asia. This situation raises concerns over sovereignty, energy security, Caspian Sea routes and oil pipelines, along with increased military interdependence. China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has become one of the key drivers of practical cooperation across the SCO space. This has evolved into a global platform for connectivity. Kazakhstan’s role as a strategic transport and logistics hub cannot be overlooked. Statistically, railway freight between Kazakhstan and China reached 35.6 million tonnes in 2025, an increase of 11.1 per cent year-onyear.
The positive trend has continued in 2026, and Kazakhstan, with the world’s ninth-largest land area, a landlocked geography and ample oil and gas resources, is fast emerging as the fulcrum of East-West connectivity. In terms of power projection and politico-economic objectives, the SCO provides an institutional framework for dialogue, policy coordination and regional security. The BRI complements infrastructure, investment and connectivity efforts to deliver tangible economic outcomes. At the SCO summit in Tianjin, China, last year, India reiterated its opposition to Beijing’s ambitious Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), with PM Modi emphasising that connectivity efforts “must uphold the principles of sovereignty and territorial integrity”. India remains the only SCO member state that does not endorse the BRI.
The SCO further underlines India’s strategic autonomy as a member of a non-Westernaligned forum alongside major powers like Russia and China. The SCO provides India with a unique platform to engage simultaneously with China, Russia, Iran and the Central Asian Republics. India’s approach has always emphasised security, connectivity, counterterrorism, digitalisation and respect for sovereignty. India has supported Chabahar Port and the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) as important connectivity routes to Central Asia. It is significant that Prime Minister Modi has made a total of 10 visits to the region. India remains strategically interested in its role in the SCO owing to its interests in the mineral- and resourcerich region of Central Asia. Several defence agreements have taken shape in the Middle East, including the tripartite Mecca Agreement this month, followed by a defence pact between Kuwait and Pakistan.
There have also been reports of large cargo activity by Chinese and Turkish aircraft at selected bases in Pakistan. The Taliban have completed five years of territorial consolidation in Afghanistan. These developments need to be viewed in the context of Central Asia and the energy-rich nations quietly deepening cooperation across the Caspian in transport, trade and connectivity to strengthen regional links and bolster the region’s role in the key East-West energy corridor. This region has similarities in demographics and religion, and potential alliances in the future cannot be ruled out. Several positive outcomes are anticipated from the meeting between President Putin and PM Modi on the sidelines of the summit. There is a noticeable thaw in Sino-Indian relations, and a meeting with President Xi could also lead to mutually beneficial outcomes ahead of the BRICS summit in New Delhi.
Appropriately, BRICS does not need to be a counterbalance to the G7, which was established in 1973, as its charter, vision and structure are completely different. It is a unique amalgam and possesses considerable economic and human-capital strength, which could make it increasingly important in shaping the future dynamics of peace and conflict. Notably, the three founding members of BRICS, with intra-trade of about USD 1 trillion, established nuclear capabilities and large economies, are also important members of the SCO. Undoubtedly, the SCO serves as a useful platform to find common ground on various aspects, including connectivity, energy, security, trade, critical minerals and counterterrorism. Connectivity in Central Asia is a critical component of regional security. Logistic corridors, resilient supply chains and deeper economic interdependence are therefore imperative for strengthening stability across Eurasia, and India has a huge stake in it.
The SCO is therefore an important forum for India, which steadily ascends the ladder as an economic powerhouse with increasing energy needs. It is thereby relevant to strengthen ties with Central Asia, secure connectivity across Eurasia, and deftly navigate the growing influence of China. As the world becomes increasingly transactional, India must sustain its strategic outreach and continuously reshape its strategic space. This forum may open avenues for establishing new facilities for India in Central Asia following the closure of Ayni in Tajikistan four years ago. With a belligerent, bankrupt and seemingly imploding Pakistan scheduled to host the SCO summit in 2027 as it takes over the presidency, the chessboard will be more interesting, as anticipated. Anurag Awasthi is a veteran and CEO of Escape Velocity Mediaworks. He is a policy expert and columnist who writes extensively on critical technologies, security and geopolitics. Views are personal.
