The Great Power Trap: Taiwan, Tehran, and Trump

By: Dean Baxendale
Last Updated: May 17, 2026 02:50:29 IST

China has used the summit to force Taiwan back to the centre of the bilateral relationship.

Donald Trump arrived in Beijing this week seeking something larger than a trade reset. He arrived carrying the weight of a widening Middle East war, fragile global markets, and a strategic question hanging over Washington: can the United States still manage simultaneous confrontation with Iran and China without yielding ground on Taiwan? That question defined the summit long before the first handshake inside the Great Hall of the People.

The lead-up to the Trump–Xi meeting was shaped not by tariffs alone, but by the consequences of the Iran war. Trump entered Beijing after months of escalating military pressure against Tehran, including strikes that destabilized the Strait of Hormuz and rattled global energy markets. Beijing, heavily dependent on Middle Eastern energy flows, suddenly became indispensable to Washington’s effort to stabilize the crisis. Beijing has a stockpile of oil but how long will that last and Washington know that the Chinese competitiveness is built on lower than market input costs like heavily discounted Oil from Iran.

This dramatically altered the diplomatic balance or the appearance thereof. Instead of arriving from a position of uncontested American leverage, Trump arrived seemingly needing Chinese cooperation or at minimum Chinese restraint. Analysts openly noted that Xi Jinping entered the summit appearing stronger, calmer, and strategically patient while Washington looked overextended militarily and economically.

The White House publicly framed the summit around economic cooperation, investment, artificial intelligence, fentanyl precursors, and keeping the Strait of Hormuz open. Trump brought a delegation stacked with corporate America. CEO’s like Elon Musk, Tim Cook, Jensen Huang and others signaling that commerce and stability were intended to dominate the optics.

But Beijing once again had a different priority.

China has used the summit to force Taiwan back to the centre of the bilateral relationship.

According to the Chinese Foreign Ministry readout, Xi warned Trump directly that Taiwan remained “the most important issue in China-U.S. relations,” adding that mishandling it could lead to “clashes and even conflicts.”

That language was naturally not accidental and surely increased tensions in the room.

It represents one of the sharpest public warnings from Xi toward an American president in years, especially during a summit designed to showcase stability. But this was Beijing’s moment having softened the President up with beautiful children adorning his red carpet, a state banquet and words extolling bilateral domination of the world. You know hand in hand all under one heaven kind of Xi Jinping thought. Beijing certainly wants the world to understand that while Washington viewed the talks through the lens of trade and Iran, China viewed them through the lens of sovereignty and strategic red lines something the Secretary of State was well aware of. Rubio is sanctioned so his name card in Chinese reads “From Rubio.” A slight of Card so to speak.

And then came the most revealing detail of the entire summit came to light.

The White House readout omitted Taiwan completely.

Washington 1 Beijing 0.

Instead, the statement emphasized the key issues on the President›s agenda.

• economic cooperation,

• expanded market access,

• fentanyl enforcement,

• Chinese investment,

• and joint concern over the Strait of Hormuz and Iran’s nuclear ambitions.

The omission was immediately noticed by CNN, Fox News, CNBC, and diplomatic observers. Later in an interview broadcast by various networks the Secretary of State, Marco Rubio seemed to indicate that there would be serious consequences and it would destabilize the globe if China was to take aggressive action in the South China Sea against Taiwan.

CNN repeatedly pressed Trump on whether Taiwan had even been discussed but Trump declined to answer publicly which leads one to believe that nothing was promised on America foregoing the 16-Billiondollar defensive weapons packages promised to Taiwan.

Secretary Scott Bessent later defended the silence, saying Trump “understands the sensitivities” surrounding Taiwan and that critics did not understand Trump’s negotiating style.

But Beijing’s version of events left no ambiguity.

Taiwan was not peripheral and for Xi who’s political legitimacy and legacy rests on a reunification to complete the circle on the Great Chinese Rejuvenation Project (GCRP) getting Washington to bend would provide hope they could take Taiwan without a shot being fired. (The art of War by Sun Tse). The party has made great bets on the GCRP as it is core to Xi’s and the party’s mission and promise to all of the Han domination of the world.

The contrast between the two readouts from day one exposes the deeper strategic divide now defining U.S.–China relations.

Washington wanted to project controlled cooperation and a reset.

• avoid market panic,

• stabilize oil flows,

• prevent escalation with Iran,

• and preserve room for economic engagement.

China wanted to demonstrate leverage and a reset on its terms.

• remind Washington that Taiwan remains non-negotiable,

• exploit America’s distraction in the Middle East,

• and position Beijing as the steadier global power.

In effect, both governments emerged from the same meeting describing entirely different summits and speaks now to the art of diplomatic spin. The problem for Trump is that our western media is far more critical and less tolerant of the White House after the Iran War and Blocade. Beijing 1 – Washington 0.

While the White House portrayed a transactional diplomatic success focused on trade and global stability by contrast Beijing portrayed it as a warning.

That divergence matters because diplomatic readouts are never simply summaries but rather, they are strategic signals aimed at allies, markets, militaries, and domestic audiences and in America where they are laying charges weekly and opening investigations daily on Chinese influence, interference, and espionage ops the US communication would need to be clear to all.

The symbolism surrounding the summit only reinforced this imbalance.

Trump received a lavish state welcome echoing his 2017 Beijing visit with military bands, synchronized honor guards, cheering schoolchildren, ceremonial grandeur and many thought that he would soften on Taiwan to please his ‘friend’ Xi Jinping but is he really a friend? Hardly and that is the impression that the President wishes reporters and his rivals to believe while President Trump understands that China is a competitor, an adversary and this was echoed to me on Thursday in DC from someone close to the administration.

So, beneath the choreography sat the harsher geopolitical reality: America is now playing pieces on the Chess board that Beijing, Moscow and Tehran never believed any US President would attempt. Last January the US took cheap Venezuelan oil (To China) off the table and then by decapitating Iranian Oil exports and closing the straight of Hormuz it affects Beijing India and all of Europe a great deal. One Superpower flexing its muscles while to China while simultaneously attempting to deter China in the Pacific at the same time. America does not rely on Oil from the straight to power its economy but is affected by the global price of Brent and WTI crude.

Xi understands that after decades of a smooth path for China’s economic rise the US and some allies are challenging that deal. In a NY Times article on Thursday they punched out the significance of the Summit to Xi’s and China’s ambitions for Taiwan.

“But having made his point, and established China as America’s peer, Mr. Xi is now pivoting from retaliation to conciliation. At a summit in Beijing this week that he billed as historic, Mr. Xi offered Washington a choice: Accept China as an equal power with red lines that must not be crossed or continue in a cycle of conflict that risks a global “Thucydides Trap” of superpower collision.

He has given this new blueprint a new, if somewhat stilted, name: “constructive strategic stability.”

And Beijing’s readout suggests China believes the Iran war may have created precisely the strategic opening it has long anticipated. A moment when Washington needs stability more than confrontation. But if that is their take, they may have missed the boat and now the boats needed to power the Chinese economy are trapped due to the blockade.

That is probably why Taiwan vanished from the American statement but dominated the Chinese one.

One side wanted calm headlines while remaining stealth on their leverage while Beijing wanted a warning preserved in history.

If anything, the readout tells us that the great power rivalry isn’t deescalating at all but that we will continue to advance our respective nation’s interests based on mutual respect and through trade that serves the world’s interests.

Before everyone got on Air Force One everyone was instructed to throw every gift, pen, pencil or pin in the garbage according to various sources. To this observer, it suggests that the Asymmetric War between the two hegemons is accelerating and that each side made their points abundantly clear.

Queen to B4, Check.

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