The National Hurricane Center is tracking two tropical waves moving off the west coast of Africa, with the more developed of the pair given a modest chance of gradual strengthening as it crosses the central Atlantic in the coming days.
The first system is located a few hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands, according to the National Hurricane Center, which said in its latest outlook that some gradual development remains possible during the early to middle part of next week as the disturbance moves westward across the central tropical Atlantic.
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Forecasters have assigned the lead disturbance a formation chance through 48 hours of near zero per cent, rising to 20 per cent over the next seven days, according to News4Jax meteorologist Chris Holtzman. Conditions are expected to become considerably less favourable for development later in the week as the wave nears the Lesser Antilles, according to the National Hurricane Center’s outlook cited by CBS12.
A second tropical wave, trailing further east, is forecast to move off the African coast on Tuesday, though its own development prospects remain similarly limited, with Cuba Headlines reporting a near-zero chance within 48 hours and roughly a 30 per cent chance over the following week.
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This year’s Atlantic season has produced only two named storms to date, Arthur and Bertha, neither of which reached hurricane strength, according to Cuba Headlines. The Atlantic’s Accumulated Cyclone Energy, a measure of overall storm activity and intensity, currently sits roughly 75 per cent below average for this point in the season, according to National Hurricane Center data.
Forecasters attribute much of the lull to an unusually strong El Niño pattern, which tends to increase vertical wind shear across the Atlantic and Caribbean, making it harder for developing systems to organise and intensify.
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Despite the quiet start, forecasters caution against complacency, noting that August traditionally marks the beginning of the Atlantic season’s peak activity window, which typically culminates around 10 September.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s updated seasonal outlook, issued on 6 August, projects between seven and 13 named storms this year, with two to six expected to reach hurricane strength and as many as two reaching Category 3 intensity or higher, according to Fox Weather, a downgrade from the agency’s initial estimates issued in May. Should the current lead disturbance eventually organise into a named storm, it would become the season’s third, carrying the name Cristobal.
Authorities in Cuba have already urged residents to begin stockpiling food and medicine as a precaution, according to Cuba Headlines, with the country’s meteorological institute estimating a 40 per cent chance that at least one hurricane will affect the island before the season concludes on 30 November.
For now, both tropical waves remain far from any populated coastline, and the National Hurricane Center says it will continue monitoring their progress as they track westward across the Atlantic in the coming days.
