Though a formal grouping involved Donald Trump, Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin may seem unlikely, this concept raises an important query for India: what if the world’s three key powers decided increasingly to communicate directly regarding key global issues? This question is pertinent to India at a time when it is preparing for the 18th BRICS summit scheduled for September 12–13, with Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin expected to attend. Meanwhile, Donald Trump appears to be keen on direct negotiations with Russia and China. The term G3 doesn‘t suggest an organisation or alliance, but a scenario where the United States, China and Russia are converging as key players in global discussions on security, trade and order.
The idea has been back on the agenda after a Kremlin official, Yuri Ushakov, announced that a meeting between Trump, Xi, and Putin was being planned for the APEC summit in Shenzhen in November. Ever since, Russia has said it did not exclude the possibility of such a meeting, but that Moscow wants to know in advance what subjects they plan to talk about and what the meeting is expected to accomplish. A tripartite meeting will not automatically bring about the formation of a new bloc in the world. Nevertheless, should the three powers start making important agreements with each other, it may matter to existing institutions like BRICS and to India’s position in the new world order.
Trump-Xi-Putin G3 vs BRICS: Why Is This Idea Emerging Now?
Washington, Beijing, and Moscow all have different motivations for wanting to engage directly. The president has always preferred dealing directly with heads of state. When it comes to Russia, the main issue is still the situation in Ukraine whereas with China, the topics include trade, technology and supply chains, rare earths, Taiwan and the broader US-China relationship. For Putin, conducting talks with Washington could help take some pressure off Russia and create some room for negotiations with regard to Ukraine. At the same time, Moscow has its own reasons to keep relationships with Beijing strong. For Xi, direct talks would enable China to present itself as a global power capable of standing on equal terms with Washington. To put this differently, there are enough things to discuss in their relationships so that the three countries do not feel rushed into making a final decision.
Trump-Xi-Putin G3 vs BRICS: Could a G3 Challenge BRICS?
It is here where the relevance of the issue comes into play for India. BRICS encompasses a more extensive and complex coalition than other groupings where there are differences in political structures, economies, values of economy, foreign policies among participants. India, China and Russia are good partners within BRICS but the delegations from these countries often meet with differing opinions on important issues from the international life. BRICS expansion made the process of reaching an agreement even more difficult. The contradictions between BRICS players are well seen in the case of Iran as the positions of Iran and the UAE were different when the BRICS foreign affairs ministers visited India in May and the group had to abandon the issuance of a joint communique. The same three-party meeting would undoubtedly simplify the negotiations among the members of the coalition. However, it does not mean that BRICS is not necessary anymore. BRICS and G3 are two different models. BRICS is a deep coalition of powerful and emerging economies, while G3 will be a concentration of powers in only three countries.
Trump-Xi-Putin G3 vs BRICS: Why Is India Watching Closely?
The main worry for India is the issue of strategic exclusion. India has always been a supporter of a multi–polar world where no single nation rules the planet. To this end, India views BRICS as one of the key components of this policy because India can work with China and Russia as well as other emerging economies while keeping in touch with the US, Europe, Japan, Australia, and other partners. However, if important decisions are made through talking to Trump, Xi, and Putin, India may remain out of many strategic discussions.
Trump-Xi-Putin G3 vs BRICS: Will China and Russia Abandon BRICS?
Not likely. A potential G3 doesn‘t imply that China and Russia automatically become allies of the US without any reservations. The two countries have significant issues with Washington that keep them in alliance with many other non-Western states. Therefore, the two nations could act simultaneously in two different ways. In other words, China and Russia can further develop BRICS while engaging in direct negotiations with Washington if it helps their interests. This adaptability is what India needs. So, the advent of a potential G3 should not be seen as a replacement of BRICS.
Trump-Xi-Putin G3 vs BRICS: What Does It Mean for India-Russia Relations?
Russia continues to be of great significance to India in its pursuit of defense, energy, and strategic cooperation. Putin’s upcoming visit to India for the BRICS summit is expected to see some dialogue focused on energy and defense while cooperation in rare earth minerals is also being explored between the two countries. If Russia becomes more pragmatic in its relations with Washington, it will be necessary for India to avoid assuming that Russia will always be against the West. Therefore, New Delhi’s policy towards Russia should remain flexible, based on India’s interests rather than any assumptions about Russia’s relationship with the US or China.
Trump-Xi-Putin G3 vs BRICS: Why Is China the Bigger Challenge?
China could be the toughest part of the matter for India. New Delhi is looking forward to improving its partnership with Beijing while resisting any possible strategic rivalries between the states. Xi is going to travel to India for the first time since 2019, which makes this trip especially important for the meeting with Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The nations are trying to restore diplomatic relations after several difficult years following the border scuffles in 2020. Nevertheless, more favorable relations with China do not mean that the political struggle is over. If China manages to move ahead with the partnership with the US, this could give it more room to play with India.
Trump-Xi-Putin G3 vs BRICS: Is BRICS Becoming Irrelevant?
BRICS remains significant for India as it allows India interacting with China, Russia and other emerging countries simultaneously. Another point is that India is going to preside over BRICS in 2026, when it will focus on implementing practical solutions in trade, technology, digitalization, agriculture, health and supply chain cooperation. BRICS is still offering India opportunities to advance its proposals aimed at enhancing representation of emerging economies. The main question is whether BRICS can be effective without becoming an openly anti-Western bloc. This distinction is important for India.
Trump-Xi-Putin G3 vs BRICS: What Should India Do?
India can maintain good relations with BRICS without affecting its relations with Western nations. In order to achieve this goal, India needs first to enhance its economic and military power. A better economy, technology and defense would give India more leverage in negotiations. Second of all, India should avoid mistaking multipolarity for anti-American politics. Countries such as Russia and China can find ways to work with BRICS while collaborating with Washington. Hence, India can strengthen its influence in BRICS without giving up its relationship with the US and Europe. Finally, India should make BRICS work better by focusing more on its member states‘ interests in those areas where they share common interests instead of letting geopolitical clashes prevail in BRICS.
Trump-Xi-Putin G3 vs BRICS: What Is the Bigger Picture?
Although a meeting between Trump, Xi, and Putin is a possibility, it does not indicate that a G3 alliance has come into existence. Russia has indicated the possibility of a trilateral summit taking place but only after getting agreement about its agenda and the issues to be discussed. However, the significance of the talks cannot be overstated, as it would mean that as Washington, Moscow, and Beijing have begun using direct negotiations increasingly, India should find a way to preserve its role beyond being merely another player in the multipolar world. Thus, for New Delhi, the takeaway is that while BRICS can be useful, India can achieve a much stronger position based on its economic, military, technological, and diplomatic power.
