UK petrol prices may rise due to the Israel‑Iran conflict, US involvement, and surging global crude oil costs in 2026.
UK Gas Price: How the Israel‑Iran conflict, US actions, and rising crude costs could impact UK petrol prices and fuel costs.
UK Gas Price: The UK may face soaring petrol prices as the escalating conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran disrupts worldwide oil markets. The attacks on strategic facilities and threats to the Strait of Hormuz are a vital oil shipping route. This has sent crude prices surging, with potential record-breaking pump costs in the coming weeks.
The ongoing conflict involving the US, Israel, and Iran has destabilised global oil markets. Military strikes and retaliatory actions across the Middle East include attacks near key energy hubs. This has created fear of supply disruptions. Strategic shipping routes like the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20% of global oil and gas exports transit, have seen attacks on vessels and warnings against passage. These developments have pushed markets into volatility.
Strait of Hormuz extends from its northern boundary with Iran to the southern boundary with Oman and the UAE. The Persian Gulf is being used by this waterway as its primary route to access the sea. Iran’s warning about blocking oil exports, together with the recent attacks, has created fears about potential restrictions on crude oil shipments. Any interruption at this location creates a major impact on global oil transportation and market values.
The worldwide have a benchmark Brent crude that jumped to around $82 per barrel. This is a 10% rise in recent trading. As per the reports, people were warned that prices may increase further if the conflict escalates. This would directly impact UK petrol and diesel prices.
The AA estimates that UK petrol could reach 142.5p per litre, matching pre-pandemic highs. Current averages sit at 132.9p per litre, with volatility likely if supply fears continue.
Closure of the Strait of Hormuz could remove up to 6 million barrels per day from the market. Seasonal lower demand in the northern hemisphere may partially ease price spikes.
The government plans to increase fuel duty, which they had previously reduced during the Ukraine conflict. Experts recommend postponing tax increases because they will worsen financial difficulties for consumers during times of international conflict.
UK petrol prices remain vulnerable to Middle East tensions and oil supply disruptions. Drivers should expect rising pump prices, compounded by duty changes and inflation pressures.
