The war expanded drastically in scope when Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis announced ‘a maritime embargo against criminal Saudi Arabia,’ and blocked Saudi shipping in the Bab-el-Mandeb Straits.
The resumption of the US-Iran war after a brief pause in hostilities seemed almost an inevitability. Even after the much-touted Memorandum of Understanding was signed on 14 June, which ended ninety days of fighting, it was clear that it would only be a brief respite. The MoU proposed a 60-day truce for negotiations, during which the two sides would discuss to find a final settlement. There was ambiguity about the status of the Straits of Hormuz—it would remain open, though Iran retained some measure of control over it. All it agreed upon was for a brief pause in the shooting, while the major factors remained unaddressed.
The pause did not even last the stipulated 60 days. The ink had barely dried on the MoU when the two sides began sporadic strikes on each other. Iran seemed to wait till it conducted a grand state funeral for its Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Just two days later it once again re-established its own control over the Straits of Hormuz and regulated shipping through its waters, even as the USA launched its own blockade around it.
Trump’s threat—made in his usual dignified presidential language, “Open the fng Straits or we are going to beat the fing s**t out of you,” was followed by a fresh wave of US attacks on Iran in the early hours of 14 July. 90 minutes of intense strikes saw over 200 military, missile and coastal facilities being hit. After a brief lull, another wave of attacks began—this time lasting over seven hours—which hit civilian infrastructure, ports, bridges, oil installations, and even a tanker in port.
Iran retaliated as it usually did—by striking the soft US underbelly. It attacked US bases in the region and lashed out at its neighbours. An attack on the US airbase at Aqaba in Jordan, killed three soldiers. Iranian drones and missiles also hit the Al Adiri camp and Al Salman Air Base in Kuwait, and US military bases in Syria, UAE and Bahrain. They followed the usual playbook of swamping the Air Defence with hundreds of drones, forcing the expenditure of valuable Air Defence missiles to counter them, but ensuring that at least a few got through to the designated targets.
The targets increasingly became civilian infrastructure, with Trump threatening to destroy a bridge for each Iranian strike. Iranian attacks hit energy, information and telecom infrastructure in the region. One even damaged the Amazon Data Centre in Bahrain. Other strikes hit desalination plants in Kuwait—critical in a nation that depends on them for 90% of its drinking water. The hitting of civilian infrastructure—though immoral and unjustified—now seems to be a way of applying pressure to attain military goals. This was seen in the Russia-Ukraine war as well, which has degenerated into a series of long-range attacks on each other’s cities and civilian infrastructure. This distressing trend seems to be becoming a norm in modern warfare.
Iran continues to control the shipping through the Straits of Hormuz, insisting on passage only through its own designated lanes. And the battle for control of the Straits acquired another dangerous overtone with Trump proposing a 20% transit fee for safe transit of cargo through it. Fortunately, this horrendous proposal was soon revoked.
The war expanded drastically in scope when Yemen’s Iran aligned Houthis announced “a maritime embargo against criminal Saudi Arabia,” and blocked Saudi shipping in the Bab-el-Mandeb Straits—the alternative route through the Red Sea over which 7% of the global oil trade transits. Two Saudi tankers were fired upon and set ablaze. Saudi oil installations in the ports of Yanbu and Jizan were also attacked, and the Aramco oil refinery was set ablaze and forced to halt operations. This strike evoked memories of the Houthi strike on a Saudi oil refinery in Sep 2019, which inflicted over $6 billion of damage using cheap expendable drones. The fouryear-long truce in the Yemen Civil War now seems to be in danger of unravelling.
Saudi Arabia, too, has entered the fray. For the first time in the war, it launched joint attacks with the USA on the Iran-affiliated Shia militia in Iraq. This could add a dangerous Shia-Sunni connotation to the war, which could have far-reaching consequences.
In fact, Saudi Arabia now seems to be USA’s preferred strategic partner in the Middle East. The USA has offered them a nuclear deal, in which US firms will help build nuclear power plants in the country. Besides electricity, this will also provide Saudi with a source of enriched uranium, which can later be used to develop nuclear weapons. Ironically, the raison d’etre of the war has been Iran’s own nuclear programme and the double standards stand out. This could spur Iran to hasten its own nuclear program and also alarm Israel which is now the only possessor of nuclear weaponry in the Middle East. Yet, Trump has linked the nuclear deal to Saudi entering the Abrahams Accord and recognising Israel, something which is contradictory to persistent Saudi demands for the creation of a Palestinian state before normalising relations with Israel.
As for Iran, in spite of the pounding of its nuclear facilities by USA-Israel during Op Midnight Hammer in June 2025—its nuclear program still seems to be functioning. The bombings have damaged its nuclear facilities, not eliminated them. They are reportedly developing another plant deep in the Pickaxe mountains near Natanz, and the fact that Iran still retains its nuclear capabilities is an indicator that the USA has been unable to attain any of its war aims.
After 13 nights of continuous attacks, there was a brief respite in US attacks on Iran. Perhaps they are running low on missiles. The war has already cost them $37.5 billion largely in the expenditure of long-range and Air Defence missiles. The USA has hit an estimated 13,000 targets and intercepted 1700 Iranian drones and missiles so far. But they have also consumed around 1,100 Tomahawk long-range cruise missiles from its stockpile of 3,000 missiles. Around 1,400 Patriot Air Defence missiles have also been fired along with 190 Terminal High Altitude Area Defence (THAAD) missiles. (All figures as per the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, Washington). This has forced it to place an emergency procurement order of $59 billion with Lockheed Martin for additional missiles, but it will still take 3-4 years to recoup the losses. This shortfall could provide a dangerous vulnerability in that period, should these critical missiles be required in even more vital sectors, such as Taiwan.
Iran, in spite of its damage, shows no signs of relenting. It is firmly in the hands of hardliners and more obdurate than ever before. The USA has no exit strategy for the war it needlessly began, and is losing both resources and standing. China and Russia would be chuckling at the manner in which the USA has squandered its global position and lost strategic space in both Europe and Asia.
Fortunately, talks are still ongoing. Mediators have proposed a 10-day truce which may come about. This would provide a pause in which the peace process could be revived. But even that will only provide a temporary respite, and not a permanent solution. There will be fresh attacks and sporadic strikes, and the conflict could continue in this vein for quite some time to come.
But the trajectory of the war has changed completely. It is no longer about regime change or Iran’s nuclear program or any of its initial aims—if indeed, any were envisaged. It is now all about control of the Straits of Hormuz. Iran has played this card masterfully, as it seeks control of the shipping and energy that passes through the vital waters along its shoreline. This could set a dangerous trend. It could embolden other nations to do the same along the waters they control and could impact every choke point on international waters. It upends decades of maritime law, threatens to unhinge security and energy equations, and could well be the major long-term impact of the war.
*Ajay Singh is the author of eight books and over 250 published articles. He is a regular contributor to The Sunday Guardian.
