Vessel crossings through the Strait of Hormuz fell to just three on Tuesday, down from more than 100 ships a day before the war began, as Iranian anti-ship missile strikes, crippling war-risk insurance premiums and crews refusing to sail into an active combat zone have collectively reduced one of the world’s most consequential waterways to a trickle of cargo, with no clear end in sight.
Vessel crossings have drastically reduced, shipping data showed, as security concerns lingered. A total of three commodity vessels crossed the strait on Tuesday, down from four the previous day, according to Kpler data.
There were no visible very large crude carrier or liquefied natural gas tankers passing through the strait on Tuesday.
The numbers tell a story of near-total collapse. More than 100 ships transited Hormuz daily before the US and Israel launched the war with Iran on February 28, with roughly 20 million barrels per day of oil products exported through the strait before hostilities began.
Tuesday’s count of three vessels marks the continuation of a deterioration so steep and so sustained that analysts and ship brokers are now openly discussing scenarios that would have seemed unthinkable at the outset of the conflict.
How Quickly It Unravelled
The collapse of traffic did not happen overnight, but it has happened fast. Vessel activity had already weakened sharply between July 10 and July 12, with confirmed crossings declining by around 52 per cent compared with the previous week.
During that period, operators increasingly shifted toward Iranian and so-called “dark” routing while activity along the internationally recognised IMO and Omani corridors fell to minimal levels, reflecting what Kpler described as a preference for routes perceived to offer greater security despite their operational complexities.
Shipping industry sources said vessels were increasingly switching off their public AIS tracking transponders, making it difficult to determine the full number of ships crossing the waterway.
The practical effect of mass transponder switching is to render maritime intelligence agencies effectively blind to a significant share of what little traffic remains, introducing an additional layer of uncertainty into an already volatile situation. All compliant outbound energy carriers transiting Hormuz during the July 10–12 period did so without visible AIS signals, including an ADNOC-operated LNG carrier and several very large crude and product tankers.
Ships Under Fire
The reason for the mass retreat from the strait is not hard to find. At least nine ships have come under attack since July 6 as Iran tries to force vessels to navigate Hormuz through its territorial waters rather than a route along Oman’s coast protected by the US military, according to data from the International Maritime Organisation, a United Nations agency.
One seafarer was killed, and three were injured in an attack on the crude oil tanker Al Bahyah off Oman’s coast.
Eleven mariners were injured the same day in an attack on the Mombasa B, also a crude oil tanker navigating close to Oman. The Iranian attacks have used anti-ship missiles, said Jakob Larsen, chief security officer at BIMCO, one of the world’s biggest shipping associations.
The UK Maritime Trade Operations agency said it had received many reports that a tanker had messaged that it had been struck by an unknown projectile in the Strait of Hormuz.
Separately, Greek shipping company Dynacom Tankers said two of its managed vessels were hit by projectiles of unknown origin while sailing off the coast of Oman, while a third tanker was struck by a drone at Russia’s Novorossiysk CPC terminal in the Black Sea. The Houthis compounded the maritime crisis further: Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis said on Monday they were imposing a naval blockade on Saudi Arabia, a move that threatens to disrupt global energy supplies.
Crews Are Refusing To Sail — For Any Price
Perhaps more alarming to shipping executives than the vessel count itself is the emerging reluctance of experienced crews to transit the strait at all, regardless of financial incentives.
“All this resonates with crews, and right now they’re just not very happy to go through no matter what is promised to them,” said the chief executive of a maritime risk company. “It’s not about money anymore.”
The IMO’s incident tracker has now recorded 53 security incidents linked to the conflict, with 14 seafarers confirmed dead. Kpler said crew safety concerns, elevated war-risk insurance premiums and uncertainty over future access through the Strait of Hormuz continue to be the primary constraints influencing transit decisions.
A Toll On The Cargo That Does Pass Through
What little traffic remains is subject to extraordinary commercial conditions. US President Trump said he would reimpose the US naval blockade against Iran, for Iranian ships only, while demanding that other ships crossing through pay the US 20 per cent of the value of their cargo as reimbursement for protection.
The terms have deepened disquiet among shipping companies and oil-importing nations alike, introducing what amounts to a wartime transit tax on top of insurance premiums that have already made some voyages commercially unviable.
What A Prolonged Closure Would Mean
The consequences of a sustained near-shutdown of the strait are difficult to overstate. Ship broker Gibson said in a report that “should the renewed escalation in the strait lead to another prolonged closure of Hormuz, the world will find itself in a much tougher spot.”
The inbound tanker capacity figures give some sense of the damage already done: average inbound capacity fell to 6 million barrels per day during July 10–12 from 8.5 million barrels per day in the first week of July. Countries most exposed to that disruption include India, Japan, South Korea and China, all of which rely heavily on Gulf oil to sustain their industrial economies. Malaysia’s Marine Department has already urged all Malaysian-registered vessels and local shipping companies to exercise necessary precautionary measures, including avoiding transiting through the Strait of Hormuz until further notice.
With Tuesday’s crossing count at three vessels, a fraction of the pre-war daily average, the Strait of Hormuz has effectively ceased to function as the global energy artery it was designed to be, at least for now. Whether it can be reopened at scale, and on what terms, has become one of the defining economic questions of the US-Iran war.
Vessel crossings through the Strait of Hormuz fell to just three on Tuesday according to Kpler data, a precipitous decline from the more than 100 daily crossings recorded before the US-Iran war began in February. At least nine ships have been attacked since July 6, 14 seafarers have been killed in 53 IMO-recorded incidents, and crews are now refusing to transit the strait regardless of financial incentives. The near-shutdown of one of the world’s most critical energy corridors has deepened fears of a prolonged global oil supply crisis with no clear resolution in sight.
