PUNE: President Donald Trump unleashed an explosive laden warning to Iran on Easter Day, “Open the fucking straits, you crazy bastards, or you will be living in Hell. Praise be to Allah.” He followed up the next day, stating that “A whole civilisation will die tonight,” if Iran did not open the Strait of Hormuz by 8 p.m. on 7 April, Washington time (5:30 am IST on 8 April).
Even as the world held its breath, USA and Israel launched preliminary attacks on Iranian infrastructure, striking Kharg Island, and even the South Pars gas fields—the largest in the world, which supplies 20% of its natural gas. It did not seem to matter that the targets were no longer military ones, but civilian infrastructure. Schools, bridges, universities, railroads, power plants and roads were hit to “bomb Iran back to the stone ages” and force it into submission.
Fortunately, a scant two hours before the deadline, Iran and USA agreed on a two-week ceasefire, with the USA stopping further bombing and attacks, and Iran agreeing to open the Strait of Hormuz. This ceasefire, facilitated by Pakistan, UAE, Saudi, and Turkey brought a welcome respite after 10 days of fighting, that saw over 15,000 U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran, over 3,000 Iranian missile and drone strikes on Israel and the Gulf states, caused over 3,400 deaths, wrecked the region in conflict, sent energy prices skyrocketing, and completely upended global economies.
Both sides have claimed victory, stating the other blinked first. But perhaps Iran can say it with greater conviction. In spite of the devastation and the elimination of the top two rungs of its leadership, the Ayatollahs still remain in power. If anything, an 86-year-old Khamenei has been replaced by a 56-year-old Khamenei. Though its antiquated Air Force and Navy have been virtually wiped out, it still holds sufficient missiles and drones—and the ability to launch them. Its stockpile of an estimated 300 kg of 60% enriched uranium, still lies hidden beneath its mountains. And, indiscriminate US-Israeli attacks have only succeeded in rallying Iranians around the flag—and in bringing out that the target was not the regime—it was Iran itself.
The USA too has claimed victory—stating that the war “has met, and exceeded its goals.” But what were the goals? They had realised that they would be unable to attain their war aims—if any—without boots on ground. An additional aircraft carrier and three amphibious assault ships with an estimated 10,000 men of the 82nd Airborne Division had moved to the region. But any ground action would have been prohibitively expensive. Even Trump’s threat of taking over Kharg Island—the 8-kilometre-long rocky outcrop through which 90% of Iranian oil is exported—would have been difficult in the face of constant fire from the mainland. The prospect of body bags would have added public ire against this already unpopular war.
The only symbol of victory that could be justifiably proclaimed, was in the rescue of the co-pilot of an F-15, who had balled out over Iran after his aircraft was hit by ground fire. His position was detected through the GPS and radio signals emitted by his Combat Survivor Evader Locator system, and a massive operation involving over a very heavy air package and over 400 Special Forces was launched to retrieve him. He was got back, but at a massive cost. Another A-10 “Warthog” ground attack aircraft was lost, along with four Blackhawk helicopters. Two C-130 Hercules aircraft were also destroyed on ground in an operation that cost over $300 million—to add to the $2 billion being expended every day of the war.
Although there has not been significant loss of US lives—13 as per US records—it has suffered a bloody nose. Three aircraft were lost to friendly fire, and an F-35 shot down by a heat seeking missile in the early days of the war. Two aerial refuellers and an E-3 Orion sentry aircraft were also hit. Iranian missiles struck US bases in the Middle East—including Al Udeid Air base in Qatar, Camp Arifjan in Kuwait, Al Dhafra in UAE, Prince Sultan base in Saudi, and Doha in Bahrain—forcing them to shift troops to adjoining hotels to prevent casualties. It has also run through almost a third of its stock of Patriot anti-missile interceptors and Tomahawk cruise missiles which will take 3-4 years to make up. US weaknesses and shortcomings would be keenly watched by China which has now been conveniently forgotten as the main adversary. There could be a greater price to pay for that later.
But these are only the material costs. Trump’s unpopular war has brought about a rift between USA and its European allies as never before. UK, France, Italy and Spain have flatly refused to join the “illegal” war. They rejected demands to send warships to open the Strait of Hormuz, refused the use of their bases for operations and even blocked air space for US military overflights. All this has weakened NATO, and Trump could well carry out his threat to leave the alliance soon.
IMPLEMENTING THE CEASEFIRE
Although the ceasefire was welcome, it seemed to have broken down even before it even started. Within two hours of its announcement, Israel launched its most ferocious attack on Lebanon, striking over a hundred different targets in ten minutes and killing over 300. It also pushed ahead with its ground invasion of Southern Lebanon, heading towards the line of the Litani river, where it intends to carve a buffer zone. Israel termed this as “a separate skirmish, not included in the ceasefire.” Iran flatly denied that, stating that the document clearly specified a cessation of fire in all theatres. It responded by immediately blocking the Strait of Hormuz, an action which puts the very ceasefire on hold.
By some accounts, two versions of the ceasefire plan were presented—one in Farsi for Iran and one in English for the USA—both with slightly different contents. The very ambiguity can be used to scuttle it. Israel has no intention of adhering to any form of ceasefire that could allow Iran to re-emerge and could use any discrepancy to scuttle a forthcoming deal.
While implementing the ceasefire is difficult, hammering out a long-term solution seems even more intangible. Iran has presented a 10-point-peace-plan that includes guarantees against future US and Israeli attacks; removal of sanctions; acceptance of its right to enrich uranium for peaceful purposes; retention of its missile and military capabilities; control over the Strait of Hormuz; and the removal of all US troops from the region. Will the US agree to these demands? Will it agree to uranium enrichment which was the casus belli of this war? Will they be able to halt Iran’s missile and military development programs, which from now sees as something even more essential than before? Will they even contemplate the withdrawal of US troops—something that has ensured its dominance in the region since 1991? And will they remove sanctions, which Iran has set as a pre-condition? All that seems improbable.
And who will control the Strait of Hormuz? Trump has proposed a horrendous plan to charge $2 million per ship as transit charges and share the revenues between Iran and USA. The concept of a Ayatoll-booth (pardon the terrible pun) in international waters is against all maritime norms, and can have dangerous long-term implications.
The talks in Islamabad between USA and Iran seem to have a shaky foundation. But hopefully some sort of deal can still be worked out—even if it is just an indefinite extension of the ceasefire. There is some disquiet in Pakistan’s role in facilitating the talks. But if peace comes—no matter who the broker—it will hold good for India and the world.
As for Trump? Perhaps he will now claim to have stopped the war that he himself started. This will add to the seven or eight he already says he has halted, and use this to press his claims for a much-coveted—if totally undeserved—Nobel Peace Prize.
Ajay Singh is the author of eight books and over 250 published articles. He is a recipient of the Rabindranath Tagore Award for Art and Literature and a regular contributor to The Sunday Guardian.
