Iran is preparing for the possibility of a renewed and potentially larger US bombing campaign, even as Tehran’s economy faces mounting pressure, according to a senior Iranian official cited by Bloomberg. The official said the country remains capable of responding to a new attack but acknowledged the severity of the economic situation.
US President Donald Trump has previously said that heavier strikes against Iran remain possible after the November 3 midterm elections. Iranian officials reportedly see limited prospects for a deal before the elections and are preparing for the possibility of renewed military escalation afterward.
Iran Faces Severe Economic Pressure
The economic impact of the conflict has intensified in recent months. Iran’s inflation rate is nearing 90%, while the rial has lost around a quarter of its value against the US dollar over the past two months.
Iran also loaded no crude oil onto tankers in September, according to preliminary Bloomberg estimates. Some Iranian oil is still being supplied to Chinese refiners from floating storage, but those reserves are limited.
Tehran has attempted to keep trade moving by increasing shipments through land routes and the Caspian Sea. However, reports indicate longer delays at some crossings with Türkiye and Pakistan.
US-Iran War And Strait Of Hormuz
The conflict began on February 28, 2026, when the US and Israel launched strikes on Iranian targets. Iran responded by restricting foreign shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a major global energy route.
A two-week ceasefire began on April 8 following mediation by Pakistan. Subsequent talks in Islamabad failed to produce a lasting agreement, after which Washington imposed a naval blockade on Iranian ports.
A memorandum signed in June temporarily lifted the dual blockade, but the truce collapsed on July 8 after Iran attacked commercial vessels in the strait. The US reinstated its blockade on July 14.
Shipping Through Hormuz Recovers Despite Tensions
Oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz have increased despite continued tensions. Bloomberg tanker-tracking data showed Saudi crude exports rising to around 6.1 million barrels per day in September, compared with 3.4 million barrels per day in August.
Kpler data cited by AFP showed non-Iranian crude flows through the strait averaging 13.5 million barrels per day between September 22 and 28, broadly matching prewar levels.
However, shipping risks remain. UK Maritime Trade Operations reported that a tanker was hit by an unidentified projectile while travelling through the Strait of Hormuz on Friday.
US Military Buildup Raises Tensions
The US is also increasing its military presence in the region. The Pentagon is deploying the USS Theodore Roosevelt carrier strike group along with additional forces, potentially bringing the number of US carrier strike groups in the Middle East to three.
Trump’s senior national security officials also met at Camp David on Friday to discuss the Iran conflict, according to Axios.
Analysts cited by Bloomberg said the continued US military buildup could increase pressure on Tehran while also raising questions about how long Washington can sustain the deployment.
Iran Warns Of Retaliation
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has warned that any new US or Israeli attack would trigger an immediate response.
At the same time, analysts say the economic pressure could leave Tehran facing a difficult choice between making concessions to revive negotiations and escalating the conflict. Iranian officials have reportedly been exploring measures to ease the pressure, including proposals for a temporary truce and the possible restoration of access for nuclear inspectors.
US-Iran Talks Remain Uncertain
Diplomatic efforts remain stalled, with both sides appearing to maintain significantly different positions on the conditions required for a settlement.
The latest developments come as Washington continues strengthening its military position while Tehran attempts to withstand the economic consequences of the prolonged conflict. The possibility of renewed US strikes remains a major uncertainty as the November midterm elections approach.
