US-Israel-Iran War Latest Live News: This conflict between the USA, Israel, and Iran is reaching a very dangerous stage whereby it is becoming increasingly harder to draw the line between military pressure, economic sanctions and political considerations.
This conflict could go on for another six months, according to Leon Panetta, former defense secretary of the USA, resulting in a long war in the Middle East without any political solution. The war started on February 28 when both the United States and Israel attacked Iran while a ceasefire was announced in June, intermittent military exchanges and economic pressure have continued.
US-Israel-Iran War Latest Live News: Panetta Warns of a Prolonged War
Panetta’s evaluation is indicative of a war that seems to be caught in a strategic stalemate. Panetta feels that neither the US administration nor the Iranian government have an easy way out to end the fighting.
According to Panetta, there were three options that President Donald Trump could choose while one option would be to recognize that the offensive had failed and the second option would be to allow the present situation of tit-for-tat attacks to go on. Thirdly, it was the option of seeking control of the strategic Strait of Hormuz. This warning is significant since a six-month extension of the deadline would turn the war into a regional crisis.
“It’s no mystery that the United States and Iran are caught in a terrible stalemate, in which there really are very few options available to bring this war to an end,” he told the publication.
“I think the likelihood is this war is going to continue for another six months without being resolved,” he added.
He said the conflict could also follow the path of “another failed war” in West Asia, “like Iraq and Afghanistan”.
US-Israel-Iran War Latest Live News: Strait of Hormuz Becomes Key Pressure Point
The Strait of Hormuz continues to play an important role in the dispute. The strait links the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman and plays a vital role in the international trade of energy resources. The fact that Iran is able to cause disruptions to maritime traffic provides it with significant power in this dispute meanwhile, any action taken by the United States to take control over this strait would result in the dramatic escalation of the conflict.
US-Israel-Iran War Latest Live News: Iran’s Economic Pain Has Not Ended Resistance
Economic policy of Washington aims at increasing pressure on Tehran through attacking its economy, finances and the companies linked to the Iranian state. However, economic pressure does not necessarily result in political capitulation.
According to former American diplomat Dennis Ross, the leaders of Iran could make an inference that they have sufficient stamina to resist such pressure. Such an inference is especially significant in light of growing prices and falling living standards of Iranians.
US-Israel-Iran War Latest Live News: ‘Iran-First’ Sentiment Complicates US Strategy
Another political impact of economic sanctions could be an unintended one. According to the experts quoted in the text, foreign intervention by military means and the killing of civilians could result in increasing nationalist sentiments within Iran. Burcu Ozcelik from the Royal United Services Institute claims that the wartime mentality is still quite influential for some segments of the population.
“Foreign military intervention, civilian casualties, and the perception of a wider civilisation confrontation with a US-led order are sustaining a degree of ‘Iran-first’ patriotic support, tolerance or simply patience with the regime.”
In other words, foreign pressure could actually lead to the consolidation of the population behind their government, instead of making them turn away from it. It definitely complicates the strategy of the United States even further. The possibility of Tehran surviving the embargo will depend both on its economy and its public’s tolerance to the burdens of warfare.
US-Israel-Iran War Latest Live News: Could the Iran Conflict Continue for Another 6 Months?
Former US Defence Secretary Leon Panetta has said that the ongoing Iran dispute can go on for six more months, leading to a protracted Middle Eastern war. The conflict has been going on for more than six months since the offensive began on February 28.
According to Panetta, Trump has three choices as pull back, maintain the status quo through tit for tat or gain control of the Strait of Hormuz.
US-Israel-Iran War Latest Live News: What Comes Next for Trump?
The US now confronts Trump with a tough decision and further retaliation runs the risk of extending the confrontation from a manageable dispute to a broader conflict in the region. Retreat could be seen as an admission of defeat in the operation and dominance over the Strait of Hormuz could be more dangerous than what is currently happening.
Panetta said Trump has three possible paths ahead. The first is to step back and “admit that it’s a failed war”, though Panetta said he finds it hard to imagine Trump taking that route.
Three basic choices with no apparent solution in sight have been made and Panetta’s six month prediction needs consideration. The key issue has become not just how much military damage can be done, but whether any one of the parties can afford the consequences long enough for the other party to capitulate.
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Disclaimer: This article is based on information supplied for the article and reflects reported claims and analysis that may change as events develop.
