US-Israel-Iran War Latest Live News: The United States, Israel and Iran are headed towards an economically critical period of their conflict amid the uncertainties surrounding the Strait of Hormuz. US President Donald Trump said that the strait is open however, the numbers for commercial shipping activities indicate that everything is not back to normal yet and recent economic indicators highlight the issue. On Tuesday, Brent oil prices were at around $87.84 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate oil prices were at around $82.20. Brent oil prices have surged 44% this year in 2026.
US-Israel-Iran War Latest Live News: Strait of Hormuz Traffic Remains Far Below Normal
The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most strategic chokepoints of energy in the world, with about a fifth of all oil moving through the strait before the outbreak of the conflict however, maritime operations continue to be at a very low level. According to Reuters, as few as six tankers passed through the Strait on Monday, as opposed to the daily average of about 130 to 140 vessels before the conflict began.
US-Israel-Iran War Latest Live News: Oil Markets Are Pricing the Risk
That uncertainty is already being priced into the oil market with Brent at $88 a barrel, consumers and companies remain vulnerable to yet another wave of energy price increases should any transportation curtailments continue. The Energy Information Administration has a history of demonstrating just how quickly it can shift its expectations for the oil market depending on whether the conditions in Hormuz turn for better or worse. In July, its forecast had called for an average of $74 a barrel for Brent in the third quarter of the year.
Officials now expect retail gas prices to average $3.78 a gallon this year, up from its prior call of $3.64 a gallon. Gas prices were just $2.98 a gallon nationally before the war started, according to AAA.
The EIA blamed “constraints on transit through the Strait of Hormuz,” adding that the forecast “assumes those constraints persist through August.”
US-Israel-Iran War Latest Live News: American Drivers Face Higher Costs
It is becoming ever more apparent at fuel pumps in the United States. According to the American Automobile Association, the cost was about $4.09 a gallon at the end of July compared to $3.14 a year before. That meant drivers were paying almost a dollar more per gallon from one year to the next. In terms of families, the problem does not stop there. Increased oil prices could increase costs in other areas.
A day after President Donald Trump claimed the Strait of Hormuz is “open,” officials inside his administration are ramping up their forecasts for oil and gasoline prices as “constraints” block the flow of energy through that critical waterway.
US-Israel-Iran War Latest Live News: The Crisis Is Bigger Than Hormuz
Furthermore, the regional threat of energy also extends into other regions and the issues regarding maritime security in the Bab al-Mandeb Strait are now creating an additional risk factor for global shipments. Reuters indicated that there was no change in the level of shipping in Bab al-Mandeb as it was at about 25 ships, which was near its normal average level despite the sharp fall in shipping levels in Hormuz. However, despite all diplomatic efforts, the market needs proof and not mere assurances.
US-Israel-Iran War Latest Live News: What Comes Next for Global Energy
The near-term prognosis depends largely on whether shipping through Hormuz becomes less difficult in August and should shipping become more normal, then oil prices can return to normalcy rapidly. In case of continued disruption, the effects might even spill over to affect gas and gasoline prices as well. The core message here is simple: an “open” Strait of Hormuz has no meaning for the global economy unless merchant ships are also ready to make use of it.
Disclaimer: This article is based on publicly available reports and market data and should not be treated as financial, political or investment advice.
