US-Israel-Iran War Latest News: The 60-day US-Iran memorandum of understanding (MoU) expires today, August 17, but the deadline is arriving with the agreement already badly weakened. Washington and Tehran have failed to bridge their differences, and neither side appears ready to simply extend the June framework.
Instead, the final hours have been marked by increasingly tough rhetoric, stalled diplomacy and a major dispute over the Strait of Hormuz.
The strategic waterway has become the biggest sticking point between the United States and Iran. Before the war, roughly one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas supplies moved through the strait. Shipping activity has now dropped sharply, with Reuters reporting that only five commodity vessels crossed Hormuz on Saturday and none were recorded on Sunday, compared with 31 the previous weekend.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Tehran had “not yet made a decision to restart negotiations with the United States.” At the same time, US President Donald Trump has continued to threaten greater pressure on Iran and has even said he could declare the Strait of Hormuz US territory.
The immediate question is therefore no longer simply whether the June agreement will be extended. The bigger question is what comes next for Trump and Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei as both sides enter a new phase of the conflict.
US-Israel-Iran War Latest News: What Was the June US-Iran Deal Supposed to Do?
The MoU was signed on June 17 by Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian after months of fighting. It was designed as a framework to end military operations and move the two countries towards a broader final agreement.
Under the arrangement, both sides declared the “immediate and permanent termination of military operations” and agreed to work towards a final agreement within 60 days. The period could be extended if both countries agreed.
The framework covered economic, military and diplomatic issues. The US was expected to end its naval blockade within 30 days, ease sanctions, issue waivers for Iranian oil exports and allow Tehran to regain access to frozen funds. The agreement also envisaged a reconstruction and development package worth at least $300 billion for Iran.
Tehran was expected to clear mines in the Strait of Hormuz and allow commercial vessels to pass through the waterway without charges for 60 days. Iran also reaffirmed that it would not seek nuclear weapons and agreed to negotiate over the more complicated issue of uranium enrichment.
However, disagreements emerged almost immediately. Washington accused Iran of failing to reopen Hormuz, while Tehran said the US had not fulfilled its commitments regarding the naval blockade, sanctions and frozen Iranian assets.
By July 7, Trump had declared the agreement “over”. Iran later accused Washington of violating the framework and said it had suspended its own commitments. That means today’s expiry is largely the formal end of an arrangement that had already stopped functioning effectively.
US-Israel-Iran War Latest News: Strait of Hormuz Remains the Biggest Sticking Point
The Strait of Hormuz has become the central issue in the US-Iran standoff. Iran insists that the waterway remains under its control and has rejected the idea that commercial shipping will automatically return to normal simply because the 60-day deadline expires.
Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi said on Saturday, “This strait will be opened and closed only under Iran’s command.” He also demanded that Washington accept what Tehran describes as the reality of US defeat.
Trump, however, has taken the opposite position. On August 14, he said: “After we finish defeating Iran, pretty soon I’ll be declaring the Hormuz Strait a territory of the United States.” Trump has also described the US naval blockade as a “Wall of Steel” and claimed Washington has “total control” over the waterway.
Iran has strongly rejected the claim. Gharibabadi said Hormuz “cannot be seized by a tweet or an aircraft carrier”, while maintaining that the strait was and would remain Iranian. The dispute is no longer merely about political rhetoric. Shipping through Hormuz has fallen dramatically, while the UAE has accused Iran of attacking ADNOC-operated vessels. Iran has rejected the allegations.
The impact is already being felt in oil markets. Brent crude rose to around $89.40 a barrel on Monday, with Reuters linking the increase to stalled US-Iran talks and reduced shipping activity through Hormuz.
US-Israel-Iran War Latest News: What Is Trump Likely to Do Next?
Trump’s recent statements suggest that Washington is preparing for a prolonged confrontation rather than expecting the June framework to be revived immediately. On August 3, Trump called the negotiations Iran’s “last chance” and warned that Tehran could face “decapitation” if it failed to reach an agreement.
He also said the US blockade would continue until there was a deal or “Total Surrender.” His rhetoric later shifted towards the economic cost of the conflict. Speaking in New York on August 14, Trump told Americans that paying “a tiny little bit more for your gasoline” was worthwhile if it helped prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon.
He again said he would declare Hormuz US territory after defeating Iran. The comments suggest that Trump is preparing Americans for the possibility of continued military and economic pressure, including higher energy costs.
Washington has also signalled that further economic measures against Tehran could be introduced. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has said the US would combine economic isolation with its blockade of Iranian ports.
US-Israel-Iran War Latest News: Iran Hardens Its Position Under Mojtaba Khamenei
Tehran’s position has also become considerably tougher, making a simple extension of the June agreement unlikely. When the MoU was signed, Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei had already expressed reservations. In a written statement carried by Iranian state media, he said he had “a different opinion” about the agreement but authorised it after Pezeshkian and other Iranian officials assured him that Iran’s interests would be protected.
Khamenei warned that Tehran would not accept additional US demands. “If the American side wants to be greedy, we will not accept it,” Khamenei said. He nevertheless supported negotiations and stressed that face-to-face discussions would not mean accepting Washington’s position.
His position hardened further after the agreement began to collapse. On July 18, Khamenei said repeated US breaches had demonstrated that Trump’s signature was “utterly worthless and devoid of credibility.” He also warned that Iran and its regional allies had “unforgettable lessons” for the United States.
Khamenei accused Washington of showing its “true face” and described the US as deceitful, irrational and unreliable. That hardening position is important for what happens after August 17. Tehran is unlikely to return to the negotiating table merely to restore the June arrangement. Instead, Iran appears to want a substantially different framework with stronger guarantees and concessions from Washington.
US-Israel-Iran War Latest News: Why Araghchi Says There Is No Ceasefire to Extend
Iran’s Foreign Minister Araghchi has also rejected the idea that Tehran is simply deciding whether to renew a temporary ceasefire. On Friday, he said, “We did not have a ceasefire in the first place that we would now want to extend. We had ‘the end of the war,’ and now there is a new situation.”
On Saturday, he said Iran had not yet decided whether to restart negotiations with Washington. Araghchi acknowledged that Qatar and Pakistan were exchanging messages with Tehran, but said this did not amount to formal negotiations.
Iran is also working with Oman on a possible new shipping arrangement through Hormuz. Araghchi said the previous shipping routes were no longer functioning and that a temporary route was being developed. However, he stressed that reopening the waterway would depend on Washington meeting Iran’s conditions. Recent reporting also indicates that Tehran has linked the reopening of Hormuz to issues including the US blockade and other demands.
US-Israel-Iran War Latest News: What Happens After August 17?
The expiry of the MoU does not mean diplomacy will immediately disappear. Instead, several possible developments could shape the next phase of the US-Israel-Iran war.
Back-Channel Diplomacy Could Continue
Qatar, Pakistan and Oman have all played roles in communicating with Washington and Tehran. Iran has acknowledged that messages are still being exchanged, even while denying that direct negotiations have restarted.
This creates the possibility of a new agreement outside the original 60-day framework. The sides could initially focus on practical issues such as commercial shipping and humanitarian concerns before returning to the more difficult questions of sanctions and Iran’s nuclear programme.
Hormuz Will Be the First Major Test
The most visible sign of whether tensions are easing will be shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. If Washington and Tehran reach an arrangement allowing commercial vessels to move safely through the waterway, it could provide an opening for broader diplomatic talks.
If interceptions, attacks and competing blockades continue, however, the dispute could become significantly harder to contain. For the global economy, the stakes are high. Hormuz is one of the world’s most important energy chokepoints, and the recent decline in vessel traffic has already contributed to higher oil prices.
More US Sanctions Could Follow
Washington has already indicated that it intends to increase economic pressure on Tehran. Potential measures could target Iranian financial networks, oil exports and entities accused of helping Iran bypass existing sanctions.
The aim would be to increase the economic cost of continuing the confrontation and force Tehran back towards negotiations. However, greater sanctions could also make diplomacy more difficult if Iran views them as another breach of the commitments made under the June framework.
Military Escalation Remains a Risk
The expiry of the MoU does not automatically mean that a new military operation will begin. However, the conditions for escalation remain serious.
The US maintains its naval blockade, Iran continues to restrict shipping through Hormuz, and both governments are publicly warning each other against testing their resolve.
Iranian Army chief Major General Amir Hatami has also rejected Trump’s comments about taking control of Hormuz. He warned that Iran had defenders who would “break your legs” and said US forces had effectively been driven out and would not be allowed to return to their previous position in the Gulf.
Such statements underline the risk that the dispute could move beyond sanctions and diplomacy into another phase of military confrontation.
What About Iran’s Nuclear Programme?
The nuclear issue remains the biggest unresolved question beneath the immediate Hormuz dispute.
The June framework had pushed the nuclear issue into negotiations for a final agreement. Iran had reaffirmed that it would not seek nuclear weapons, while Washington wanted restrictions on uranium enrichment and stronger guarantees.
But the breakdown of the June framework has pushed those negotiations into uncertainty.
Any future agreement would have to address far more than the immediate dispute over shipping.
It could include sanctions relief, Iranian oil exports, access to frozen assets, the US military presence in the region, nuclear restrictions and guarantees that neither side would simply abandon a new agreement.
This makes a quick diplomatic breakthrough difficult.
US-Israel-Iran War: What Is the Most Likely Next Step?
The immediate future is unlikely to be a straightforward choice between “peace” and “full-scale war.”
The more likely scenario is a prolonged period of pressure, indirect diplomacy and uncertainty.
Trump is likely to continue using sanctions, economic restrictions and US naval power to pressure Tehran. Mojtaba Khamenei, meanwhile, is expected to maintain Iran’s hard-line position and use the country’s influence over Hormuz as leverage.
Back-channel communication through Qatar, Pakistan and Oman could continue even if direct US-Iran negotiations remain suspended.
The Strait of Hormuz will therefore remain the key test.
If shipping resumes and the two sides find a way to address the blockade, sanctions and nuclear issue, a new negotiating framework could emerge.
If the confrontation over Hormuz intensifies, however, the expiration of the June deal could mark the beginning of an even more dangerous phase of the US-Israel-Iran war.
As the US-Iran deal expires today, August 17, the next move from Trump and Mojtaba Khamenei could determine whether the conflict moves back towards diplomacy or deeper into confrontation.
