( ) * Pipeline constraints keep Waha Hub prices negative * Ample storage and mild weather forecast limit demand * Lower 48 states see drop in gas output, LSEG reports By Scott DiSavino Oct 7 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures edged up about 1% on Tuesday on a decline in daily output. That increase came despite lower flows to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants and forecasts for less demand next week than previously expected. Front-month gas futures for November delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) rose 4.5 cents, or 1.3%, to $3.402 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) at 9:12 a.m. EDT (1313 GMT). In the cash market, average prices at the Waha Hub in the Permian Shale in West Texas remained in negative territory for a 10th day in a row as ongoing pipeline maintenance, like work on Kinder Morgan's Permian Highway, trapped gas in the nation's biggest oil-producing basin. That was the 19th time Waha prices have dropped below zero so far this year and compares with an average of $1.41 per mmBtu so far in 2025, 77 cents in 2024, and $2.91 over the previous five years (2019-2023). Waha first averaged below zero in 2019. It happened 17 times in 2019, six times in 2020, once in 2023, and a record 49 times in 2024. In the tropics, the U.S. National Hurricane Center projected a broad area of low pressure in the central Atlantic Ocean had an 90% chance of strengthening into a tropical cyclone over the next week as it moves northwest toward the northern Caribbean Islands. The NHC also projected a trough of low pressure in the Bay of Campeche in the Gulf of Mexico off central Mexico had a 10% chance of strengthening into a tropical cyclone over the next week. SUPPLY AND DEMAND Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 states fell to 106.5 billion cubic feet per day so far in October, down from 107.4 bcfd in September and a record monthly high of 108.0 bcfd in August. On a daily basis, output was on track to drop to a preliminary four-month low of 104.4 bcfd on Tuesday. Preliminary data, however, is often revised later in the day. That compares with a daily record high of 109.2 bcfd on July 28. Record output earlier this year allowed energy companies to inject more gas into storage than usual so far this summer. There was about 5% more gas in storage than normal for this time of year. Meteorologists forecast the weather will remain mostly warmer than normal through at least October 22. That late-season warmth should reduce gas demand by cutting the amount of fuel used to heat homes and businesses by more than the amount of fuel power generators need to burn to keep air conditioners humming. About 40% of the power produced in the U.S. comes from burning gas. LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would slide from 99.2 bcfd this week to 97.5 bcfd next week. The forecast for next week was lower than LSEG's outlook on Monday. The average amount of gas flowing to the eight big U.S. LNG export plants rose to 16.1 bcfd so far in October, up from 15.7 bcfd in September and a monthly record high of 16.0 bcfd in April. On a daily basis, LNG feedgas was on track to slide to a preliminary two-week low of 15.5 bcfd on Tuesday due mostly to a decline in flows to Cheniere Energy's 4.5-bcfd Sabine plant in Louisiana to around 3.9 bcfd, down from an average of 4.6 bcfd over the prior seven days, according to LSEG data. Week Wee Year Five ende k ago -yea d end Oct r Oct ed 3 aver 3 Sep age Fore 27 Oct cast Act 3 ual U.S. weekly +80 +53 +78 +94 natgas storage change (bcf): U.S. total 3,64 3,5 3,61 3,48 natgas in 1 61 8 4 storage (bcf): U.S. total +4.5 +5. storage versus % 0% 5-year average Global Gas Curr Pri This Prio Five Benchmark ent or Mont r -Yea Futures ($ per Day Day h Year r mmBtu) Last Aver Aver Year age age 2024 (201 9-20 23) Henry Hub 3.44 3.3 2.58 2.41 3.52 6 Title Transfer 11.3 11. 12.8 10.9 15.4 Facility (TTF) 5 38 9 5 7 Japan Korea 11.1 11. 13.3 11.8 15.2 Marker (JKM) 3 04 5 9 3 LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days Two-Week Total Curr Pri Prio 10-Y 30-Y Forecast ent or r ear ear Day Day Year Norm Norm U.S. GFS HDDs 89 76 89 105 124 U.S. GFS CDDs 62 70 59 58 43 U.S. GFS TDDs 151 146 148 163 167 LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts Prio Cur Next This Five r ren Week Week -Yea Week t Last r Wee Year (202 k 0-20 24) Aver age For Mont h U.S. Supply (bcfd) U.S. Lower 48 107. 106 107. 101. 98.1 Dry Production 3 .6 2 7 U.S. Imports 6.8 6.9 7.3 N/A 7.4 from Canada U.S. LNG 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Imports Total U.S. 114. 113 114. N/A 105. Supply 2 .4 5 5 U.S. Demand (bcfd) U.S. Exports 2.1 2.4 2.4 N/A 2.2 to Canada U.S. Exports 6.8 6.3 6.7 N/A 6.1 to Mexico U.S. LNG 16.2 16. 16.2 12.6 11.3 Export Feedgas 1 U.S. 4.9 5.3 5.8 5.4 6.9 Commercial U.S. 4.0 4.8 5.8 4.9 7.1 Residential U.S. Power 38.4 34. 31.1 36.6 31.7 Plant 7 U.S. 21.9 22. 22.2 22.1 22.4 Industrial 1 U.S. Plant 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.2 Fuel U.S. Pipe 2.0 2.0 1.9 2.0 2.8 Distribution U.S. Vehicle 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 Fuel Total U.S. 76.6 74. 72.2 76.4 76.3 Consumption 4 Total U.S. 101. 99. 97.5 N/A 95.9 Demand 6 2 N/A is Not Available U.S. Northwest 2026 202 2025 2024 2023 River Forecast Curr 6 % of % of % of Center (NWRFC) ent Pr Norm Norm Norm at The Dalles Day ior al al al Dam (Fiscal % of Day Actu Actu Actu year ending Norm % al al al Sep 30) al of Fore Nor cast mal For eca st Apr-Sep 93 93 76 74 83 Jan-Jul 88 87 78 76 77 Oct-Sep 89 89 80 77 76 U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA Week Wee 2024 2023 2022 ende k d end Oct ed 10 Oct 3 Wind 15 8 11 10 11 Solar 7 7 5 4 3 Hydro 4 4 6 6 6 Other 1 1 1 2 2 Petroleum 0 0 0 0 0 Natural Gas 38 44 42 41 38 Coal 16 17 16 17 21 Nuclear 18 18 19 19 19 SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) Hub Curr Pri ent or Day Day Henry Hub 3.32 3.1 9 Transco Z6 New 1.7 1.5 York 5 5 PG&E Citygate 3.4 3.4 Eastern Gas 1.7 1.5 (old Dominion 0 4 South) Chicago 2.9 2.7 Citygate 4 9 Algonquin 1.9 1.7 Citygate 5 0 SoCal Citygate 3.5 2.2 Waha Hub -1.5 -4. AECO 0.18 0.3 ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) Hub Curr Pri ent or Day Day New England 54.2 65. PJM West 77.6 93. Mid C 45.1 45. 8 75 Palo Verde 29.5 20. 0 50 SP-15 28.4 23. 7 62 (Reporting by Scott DiSavino in New York; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama ) (The article has been published through a syndicated feed. Except for the headline, the content has been published verbatim. Liability lies with original publisher.)
