Washington must lay down its defensive mechanism for defining its ‘decisive action’. West should not repeat the mistakes of the 2014 annexation of Crimea.
For weeks now, the United States and its allies have been engaged in dialogues with Russia over Ukraine. Starting from the phone call between POTUS and his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin towards the end of last year until the recent bilateral between US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and his Russian counterpart in Geneva, both sides have yielded no results. This raises a serious question on either side about the solemnity of a comprehensive diplomatic resolution. While Russia has further reinforced its military presence near Ukraine with an estimated 110,000 troops backed by tanks and heavy artillery, the West has increased troop movement in the Baltic region alongside Poland in addition to accelerating arms supply to Ukraine. Russia recognises the rapid advancement in Ukraine’s military capabilities in recent years and maintains a constant threat assessment of territorial security caused by NATO’s “dangerously close” expansion near its borders. Russian prerequisite for talks such as calling for a halt on NATO’s eastward expansion and demanding for a ban on Ukraine’s membership in the alliance is proving out to be the bone of contention. This hints towards Russia’s duplicity by justifying its military aggressiveness on Ukraine, claiming that the other side is not willing to engage in a dialogue given Russia’s unacceptable terms as nonstarters.
RUSSIA’S NON-STOP TACTICAL ADVANCEMENT
The United States has been regularly flying eavesdropping planes over Ukraine, gathering significant SIGINT tracking Russian troop movement across the borders, indicating towards additional positioning of Russian soldiers. Given the present circumstances, the chances of Russia installing any tactical nuclear weapon close to the border cannot be ignored. President Biden in a recent press conference predicted a full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine, that could “hold Putin accountable” with firm responses. Satellite pictures have surfaced recently showing surprisingly heavy Russian military build-up in Yelnya and Pogonovo, across Eastern Ukraine, creating an atmosphere for a full-scale invasion. While the talks are aimed at de-escalating tensions, such developments are further pushing the diplomatic efforts to the brink of a complete collapse. The general mood in Washington has gone beyond the norms of hitting Russia with severe sanctions, expecting Moscow to have a clear understanding of the magnitude of the damage it can cause to its economy regardless of the fact Russia stays intransigent. As a result, around 8,500 American troops have been put on stand-by as President Biden weighs options for responding against Russian advances in Ukraine.
RETHINKING THE ALLIANCE STRATEGY
Talks continue to end in stalemate, while the guns remain pointed on the head of Ukraine. The United States has already committed $450 million to Ukraine this year in addition to providing tactical ammunition. In a second phone call this month with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, President Biden has reaffirmed his promise of a “decisive action” against Russia if there is any more territorial advancement by Russia. Washington must lay down its defensive mechanism for defining the “decisive action”. West should not repeat the mistakes of the 2014 annexation of Crimea and must act before it’s too late, Ukraine military should be strengthened now. The United States and allies should not wait for Russia to launch a full offensive against Ukraine’s territorial sovereignty, instead work on enhancing the force posture. Utilising the elements of the alliance such as the EFP (Enhanced Forward Presence) can be a starting point where troops can be mobilized across the Baltic region, Poland and Romania backed by significant airpower as well as regional air defence focusing to slow down the onslaught. Every step has to be calculated with due risk assessment and close consultations with all the NATO allies.
FUTURE IMPLICATIONS
Ground reality across the border region of Ukraine remains intense, troops and civilians are uncertain of their fate, anticipating a war to come. Russia’s covert offensive of fuelling separatism in Eastern Ukraine is in sync with its military furtherance. Whether Russia is planning a full-scale invasion to install a pro-Kremlin government or attempting to extort guarantees from the West, President Putin’s unclear intentions have raised the stakes for every participant involved in this theatre. While the doors of diplomacy are still open and expecting that the West will have a coherent military approach towards manoeuvring its military in the east, Russia will reconsider its prerequisites to talks and might compromise on seeking ‘guarantees’ creating an opportunity for pursuing mutual de-escalation.
Siddhant Kishore is a commentator on national security, strategic affairs and politics. He is serving on the board of The Honest Critique as the Consulting Editor on Strategic Affairs. Siddhant writes on issues related to Afghanistan-Pakistan, Middle East and Terrorism.