The Houthis launched a wave of attacks on Saudi Arabia in retaliation for its support to the US. The trigger came in July when Saudi Arabia bombed Sanaa airport to prevent a Houthi delegation from attending the funeral of Ayatollah Khamenei.
The Iran-US-Israel war has been in its ‘on-again, off again’ mode for almost six months now, with both sides trading intermittent attacks on each other, but neither making much headway. The Strait of Hormuz has remained blocked by Iran on one side and a US embargo on Iranian shipping on the other. In fact, the US strategy seemed to have shifted towards blocking Iranian energy exports and starving its economy. Four Iranian tankers were hit near the Strait in response to an Iranian attack on US ships. But overall, there seemed to be a reduction in US attacks. Iran, too, had reduced its own strikes on its neighbours – perhaps because of backchannel talks. But this temporary reprieve proved short-lived. Even as the situation seemed to be cooling, the Iranian-allied Houthis launched a lightning offensive in western Yemen and seized control of the coastal areas and the crucial Bab elMandeb Strait.
The Houthis (named after their founder, Hussein alHouthi, but correctly named ‘Ansar Allah’, or Supporters of God) and Saudi Arabia have been in a state of war since 2015, when the rebels emerged from their mountain strongholds and took over vast tracts of Yemen, including the capital, Sanaa, and forced its president, Mansour Hadi, to flee to Saudi Arabia. Years of attacks on the rebels by a Saudi-led coalition achieved little. In fact, Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia caused disproportionate damage. They even attacked Saudi oil fields and refineries in 2019, forcing them to halt production. A truce was brokered in 2022, which reduced the fighting but never ended it. And in that time, the Houthis built up and consolidated. Things came to a pass with the US invasion of Iran on February 26. The Shia Houthis are ideologically linked to Iran – which is also their main financier and supporter – and form part of its ‘Axis of Resistance’.
The Houthis launched a wave of attacks on Saudi Arabia in retaliation for its support to the US. The trigger came in July when Saudi Arabia bombed Sanaa airport to prevent a Houthi delegation from attending the funeral of Ayatollah Khamenei. That triggered a wave of Houthi attacks on Saudi oil refineries, ports and shipping in the Red Sea. They also established control over the Bab el-Mandeb Strait – the 29-kilometrewide channel that links the Red Sea to the Indian Ocean and leads on to the Suez Canal in the west, providing an artery towards Europe. These crucial waters carry around 9 million barrels of oil per day – over 5 per cent of the world’s energy trade – and were used extensively by Saudi Arabia after Iran had blocked the Strait of Hormuz.
On September 8, four southern Saudi cities – Najran, Abha, Jazan and Khamis Mushait – were targeted by Houthi missiles and drones. The attacks set ablaze the ARAMCO oil refinery at Jazan port, forcing it to halt operations. Then, on the anniversary of the 9/11 attacks in the US, the Houthis launched a blitzkrieg along the coastal areas, sweeping past the ill-equipped and poorly motivated Yemen government soldiers. They seized the city of Mocha – a name synonymous with excellent coffee from its coffee beans – and advanced along the Red Sea coast to the southern tip of the Bab el-Mandeb. On the way, they also captured the strategic islands of Perim and Hanish and took over the coastal town of Dhubab, which gave the Houthis complete control over the Strait.
With the renewed fighting, the Bab el-Mandeb has lived up to its name, which means ‘The Gate of Tears’. The blocking of the Bab el-Mandeb, the only alternate route to the Strait of Hormuz, sent oil prices skyrocketing. To tighten the screws, the Houthis hit the East-West pipeline – a 1,200-kilometre-long pipeline which carries almost 7 million barrels per day across Saudi Arabia to the port city of Yanbu – forcing its closure. With the choking of both the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb, through which 20 per cent of the world’s oil passes, the throttling of global energy was almost complete. Iran, of course, has denied any part in the Houthi actions. But the Houthi actions fit perfectly with Iran’s own strategy and have undoubtedly been orchestrated by it. They have now increased the economic cost of the war across the world, and by opening another theatre have also raised the stakes for their neighbours.
Ironically, it is Saudi Arabia that stands to lose the most now. Saudi Arabia had encouraged and aided US actions in a bid to weaken Iran – its main rival in the region – but the war has reached it now. Its plans to become the techno-financial hub of the region have been irrevocably hit. The Houthi actions have also brought out the frailties of US promises and security guarantees. Saudi Arabia and the US signed a Strategic Defence Agreement in the White House last year. Yet when Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman approached Trump for assistance – even personally telephoning him twice to request strikes against the Houthis – he was rebuffed. The US has got a bloody nose in Iran and has expended far more of its munitions and suffered more damage than it cares to admit. It would be loath to get involved in another front of the war that it itself has begun. But it will have a long-term implication. The US claim of being the net security provider for the region is in tatters, and its weaknesses and limitations have come to the fore.
This could lead to a gradual erosion of US influence in the region. There is another security pact that has just failed its first test. Just a month ago, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan signed the Mecca Accord in Riyadh with much fanfare, declaring that “an attack on one is to be considered as an attack on all”. Houthi attacks have hit Saudi Arabia directly, even striking Riyadh, with another hitting an air base. A drone attack was also reported in the vicinity of Mecca. (A charge denied by the Houthis, who claimed that it was fabricated by the Saudis to garner Islamic support.) While Saudi Arabia has responded by bombarding Houthi targets, it has also reportedly lost an F-15 fighter in the operations. Will Pakistan now provide the military muscle to help Saudi Arabia and honour its agreement? It is a delicate situation. Pakistan will face the hostility of Iran if it intervenes, and earn the ire of Saudi Arabia if it does not.
With a stranglehold established over the two major arteries of the world, oil prices have gone through the roof, causing rising prices, shortages and inflation in virtually every country in the world. The price of Brent crude has jumped to $110 per barrel (it was $60 before the war) and could rise as much as $125. In the US itself, diesel has risen to $6 per gallon (it was $3 before the war). Prices have risen by around 30 per cent at fuel pumps across Europe, and austerity measures have been imposed in many Asian and African nations. The Russia-Ukraine war has also taken its toll. Russian refineries have been hit by drones, forcing them to stop operations, and the Ukrainian energy infrastructure has been virtually devastated. Ironically, India now supplies Russia with 70 per cent of its diesel and refined oil products, while receiving crude oil from it. Indian refineries have helped keep the European economy afloat.
And with amazing chutzpah, Trump has asked Russia and Ukraine not to hit energy targets for fear of causing a global shortage – while at the same time threatening 100 per cent tariffs on imports of Russian oil. The opening of the Yemen front gives a new dimension to the Iran war – and yes, it is part of the same war. Iran holds out and will continue to do so. In fact, despite the pain it has endured, it could emerge even stronger at the end of it. Trump could well declare victory and scoot before the impact of his unpopular war is felt in the November midterm elections. But the pain felt by world economies will continue. And the Middle East will remain in an even more heightened state of turmoil for quite some time to come. Ajay Singh is the international award-winning author of eight books and over 250 published articles. He is a regular contributor to The Sunday Guardian.
