President Volodymyr Zelenskyy delivered a pointed challenge to Western allies on Tuesday, arguing that Ukraine’s hard-won battlefield prowess has made its military indispensable to the transatlantic alliance and that continuing to exclude Kyiv would actively weaken collective Western security.
Speaking before an audience of international dignitaries and defence executives at NATO’s defence industry forum in Ankara, Zelenskyy framed Ukraine’s integration not as a geopolitical favour, but as a strategic asset. He pushed back against the long-standing reluctance of core alliance members to admit a nation locked in an active conflict with a nuclear-armed adversary.
“I have a question for you,” Zelenskyy told attendees. “Do you really believe it? Do you really believe it would be right to leave outside NATO a country and a people with this level of defensive capability? If we already have these capabilities, if Ukrainians already know how to fight like this, then it does make sense for these capabilities to become a part of the alliance’s collective defence that would make all of us stronger.”
A Brutal War of Attrition
The high-stakes diplomatic manoeuvre unfolded as the war enters its fifth gruelling year. On the ground, the conflict has settled into a brutal war of attrition. A senior NATO official, speaking on the condition of anonymity to brief reporters at the summit, indicated that Russian forces have seen their rate of advance ground to a crawl, averaging just 3.79 square kilometres a day in June, a quarter of the pace recorded a year prior. However, the slow progress continues to extract a devastating human toll, with the same official estimating that Moscow continues to sustain between 30,000 and 35,000 casualties each month.
Despite the grinding frontline stalemate, Ukraine has increasingly succeeded in projecting power deep inside Russian territory, utilising what Zelenskyy termed “the technology of fighting at a distance.” Just a day before the forum, Ukrainian long-range drones successfully bypassed Russian air defences to strike an oil refinery in Omsk, Siberia, located roughly 1,680 miles from the Ukrainian border.
According to Western intelligence estimates shared at the summit, Kyiv’s aggressive deep-strike campaign has successfully knocked out approximately 20 per cent of Russia’s total oil-refining capacity. The senior NATO official noted that the strategic use of medium-range drones targeting Russian logistics has also severely weakened Moscow’s grip on the occupied Crimean peninsula, forcing local authorities to declare localised states of emergency.
“We have completely eliminated the very idea of Russia having a strategic rear,” Zelenskyy asserted, describing the long-range operations as a revolutionary shift in modern warfare. He added, however, that Ukraine took no pride in the development, emphasising that it was born entirely out of the existential necessity to defend its population.
Vulnerabilities Remain Closer
Yet, even as Ukraine showcases its offensive ingenuity, severe vulnerabilities remain closer to home. On Monday, a barrage of 23 Russian ballistic missiles struck Kyiv, killing at least 15 people. Ukrainian officials revealed that none of the ballistic missiles was intercepted due to a critical shortage of US-manufactured Patriot interceptor missiles.
The defence deficit stems from shifting global security dynamics. Stockpiles of the American air defence system were heavily depleted during a military conflict between the United States and Iran in the Middle East earlier this spring. Data from the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington-based think tank, estimates that between 1,060 and 1,430 Patriot interceptors were expended during the Middle East hostilities.
Given that the defence contractor Lockheed Martin produces only about 600 of the advanced PAC-3 interceptors annually, and each missile requires two years to manufacture, supply chains are under immense strain.
In response to the shortage, Zelenskyy urged European allies to decouple their security architectures from absolute reliance on Washington. While Ukraine boasts a success rate of greater than 90 per cent against Iranian-designed Shahed loitering munitions, defence against ballistic missiles requires heavy industrial scaling.
“The one thing we still need to do here in Europe is build a strong defence against Russian ballistic missiles,” Zelenskyy said. “I believe Europe urgently needs its own capability to produce anti-ballistic systems and the missiles they require.”
NATO’s $50 Billion in New Arms Agreements
The defence industrial forum takes place against a backdrop of massive financial commitments, with NATO members announcing more than $50 billion in new arms agreements. The surge in defence procurement is largely driven by increased military expenditures enacted under pressure from US President Donald Trump. Alliance members previously agreed to elevate their mandatory defence spending targets to 3.5 per cent of their gross domestic product by the year 2035.
The geopolitical manoeuvring in Ankara extends beyond defence contracts to direct diplomacy. Zelenskyy, who attended a leaders’ dinner at the Turkish presidential palace compound, is scheduled for a pivotal bilateral meeting with Trump on Wednesday lunchtime.
The upcoming face-to-face meeting follows intensive weekend telephone diplomacy, during which Trump held separate conversations with both Zelenskyy and Russian President Vladimir Putin. The conversations have renewed speculation that Washington intends to launch a fresh mediation effort to freeze or conclude the war. Meeting with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Trump expressed optimism regarding a potential diplomatic breakthrough, stating that he believes both sides want to make a deal and hoping for a swift resolution to the conflict.
