Will Yogi remain CM if BJP wins UP?
This is a crucial question within the BJP circle. If the BJP fails to cross the 300-mark then will that give Prime Minister Narendra Modi an excuse to change the sitting Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister and replace him with a candidate of his choice? For it is the BJP’s worst kept secret that the PM is keen to replace Yogi with either Manoj Sinha (who was his first choice) or else Arvind Kumar Sharma. However, given the fact that Yogi Adityanath has his own following within the Hindutva lobby, it will not be so easy to side line him. There is a certain safe margin within which it would be difficult to remove him. Some put this as 250, while others at 220 seats. From all accounts this is not a “sweep” election and the party is ready for a close call. But how close is the question.
Reality check within Congress
An opinion poll by a well-known (but not always accurate) pollster is doing the rounds post the Punjab elections that claims that the Congress is in for a nasty shock on 10 March. It gives the Congress as little as 10 seats in the state polls. This is certainly a downer for the party, which is currently ruling the state and fancies its chances. However, a disorganised campaign and infighting amongst the state leaders have ruined the Congress party’s chances. But still even the biggest cynic would not put the number to such a low. On the other hand, the Akalis could well be the “surprise showing” in these polls. While most pollsters have put them at Number 3, there is anecdotal evidence that suggests that the panchayat level vote has gone their way, so do not be surprised if the SAD bags the second place in terms of the votes polled. The BJP is also hopeful of making a dent in the Hindu vote bank in the state. Clearly, no election is over or predictable until counting day.
This is a crucial question within the BJP circle. If the BJP fails to cross the 300-mark then will that give Prime Minister Narendra Modi an excuse to change the sitting Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister and replace him with a candidate of his choice? For it is the BJP’s worst kept secret that the PM is keen to replace Yogi with either Manoj Sinha (who was his first choice) or else Arvind Kumar Sharma. However, given the fact that Yogi Adityanath has his own following within the Hindutva lobby, it will not be so easy to side line him. There is a certain safe margin within which it would be difficult to remove him. Some put this as 250, while others at 220 seats. From all accounts this is not a “sweep” election and the party is ready for a close call. But how close is the question.
Reality check within Congress
An opinion poll by a well-known (but not always accurate) pollster is doing the rounds post the Punjab elections that claims that the Congress is in for a nasty shock on 10 March. It gives the Congress as little as 10 seats in the state polls. This is certainly a downer for the party, which is currently ruling the state and fancies its chances. However, a disorganised campaign and infighting amongst the state leaders have ruined the Congress party’s chances. But still even the biggest cynic would not put the number to such a low. On the other hand, the Akalis could well be the “surprise showing” in these polls. While most pollsters have put them at Number 3, there is anecdotal evidence that suggests that the panchayat level vote has gone their way, so do not be surprised if the SAD bags the second place in terms of the votes polled. The BJP is also hopeful of making a dent in the Hindu vote bank in the state. Clearly, no election is over or predictable until counting day.