Yogi achieves an improbable feat

By becoming the first incumbent Chief Minister to retain power in the country’s most populous state, Yogi Adityanath has propelled himself to the big stage of national politics. This impressive landslide victory has elevated him to become one of the most powerful Chief Ministers of India as it has similarly strengthened the credentials of Narendra Modi as the most powerful and influential Prime Minister in recent times.
The Double Engine slogan has worked very well for the BJP in Uttar Pradesh and this win could perhaps set the narrative for the 2024 Parliamentary polls. Yogi shall be a prominent player in helping the PM and other colleagues in retaining the saffron hold over the state.
The magnitude of this win has surprised many opponents of the BJP who were of the opinion that the momentum was with the Samajwadi Party and its leader, Akhilesh Yadav. However, the BJP’s superior strategy of using both Mandal and Kamandal card and better organisational capacity settled the mandate in the favour of its candidates.
Credit must go to Akhilesh for carrying the battle into the enemy camp with none of the other UP leaders including Mayawati, Priyanka Gandhi Vadra and Jayant Chaudhury failing to make much of a dent in the overall outcome. In the process, the Samajwadi Party has increased both its seats and the percentage of votes.
However, Akhilesh entered the electoral arena rather late; he was missing in action in the state for nearly four and a half years and became active openly during the past few months. There is no doubt that he worked very hard but had to deal with a big handicap, which was in the shape of his party being branded as a goonda outfit, thanks to sustained BJP propaganda.
The contest in Uttar Pradesh was essentially two-way and the Samajwadi Party could not compete with the enormous resources at the BJP’s command. The good thing about democracy is that it always provides another chance to the vanquished and this should be seized by him in order to compete more effectively both in the 2024 Parliamentary elections and in the 2027 Assembly polls.
The real advantage which the BJP capitalised was on the inability of Mayawati to reach out to her vote base. In fact, around five crore families that were beneficiaries of the direct benefit schemes of the government, were largely from poorer sections and marginalized castes, who in the past supported the Bahujan Samaj Party. However, this time around there was an option for them and they felt grateful to both Modi and Yogi for helping them overcome difficult times.
The BJP must now not rest on its laurels but begin work immediately. The leadership must address the issues of unemployment, inflation, poor economic state and human development rather than concentrating only on building bridges, roads, airports etc. The medical infrastructure must be strengthened and the state must become self-reliant instead of depending on help from the Centre and adjoining regions.
On the law and order front, UP has a long way to go despite big claims of maintaining the rule of law. Minorities and marginalized sections must be made to feel secure and safe and the problem of stray cattle must be adequately taken note of to find redressal.
The Assembly polls have also given BJP big wins in three other states and it has again overcome anti-incumbency to emerge as the majority party in Uttarakhand, where unfortunately its Chief Ministerial nominee Pushkar Singh Dhami lost. The Uttarakhand feat was also special since the BJP won despite changing three CMs.
In Delhi when the party had three CMs between 1993 and 1998, it was mauled by the Congress and till date has never been able to come to power in this national territory region. Therefore, apart from Modi, the credit of BJP retaining power in Uttarakhand must go to Dhami.
While it is for the BJP’s central leadership to decide Dhami’s fate, it is possible that Modi may consider him for a fresh tenure. It would not be the first time if the losing Chief Minister was asked to continue; it happened in the Bombay State when Morarji Desai lost the polls but was appointed the CM and in West Bengal where Mamata Banerjee was similarly sworn in.
The overall message of these elections is that they represent a generational change. Most of the established leaders in the poll bound states have been defeated and new faces have emerged. In Punjab in particular, the Aam Aadmi Party win is both unprecedented and very decisive. The implication is for everyone to see since this would make Arvind Kejriwal a bigger national player in the future. The dynamics of a federal front against the BJP may also change with Kejriwal occupying a bigger role than he has had in the past.
The message for the Congress is very clear. In the past eight years, it has been able to triumph in only five out of the 45 elections it has contested. In fact, at least 222 Congress leaders who have fought on the party symbol have either joined the BJP or some other outfit. This is an obvious indication of the state of the affairs. The leadership’s disconnect with the ground realities has resurfaced once again and it is unlikely that any lessons shall be learnt this time as well. The G-23 leaders have been holding parleys but the Gandhis remain unnerved. Between us.