NEW DELHI
The election results of five states which are going to polls this month will decide the future of the Opposition’s I.N.D.I.A bloc formed against the ruling NDA. Going by the indications, the alliance has a bumpy ride ahead.
Initially, Congress immediately rushed to approve the idea of this alliance. The political compulsions of the Assembly polls in five states also came into play. Congress leaders from Hindi speaking states, including the poll-bound ones, were opposed to it from day one. Former CM Kamal Nath, who is leading the Congress poll campaign in Madhya Pradesh, was against holding the alliance’s rally in Bhopal. Congress strategists believe that not a single constituent of I.N.D.I.A can help Congress get extra votes. On the contrary, it could cause a political loss to the grand old party.
There were apprehensions about the Aam Aadmi Party and the Samajwadi Party, as both parties would have demanded shares in all the states despite having little or no support base in the poll-bound Hindi belt states. The other partners which were already included in the UPA are also not in a position to help Congress in these states. So Congress distanced itself from the alliance in the polls.
Moreover, the Congress will also change its tone and tenor on the caste census. Although Rahul Gandhi wanted to make it a big issue, he changed tack after reports that the issue will backfire in the poll-bound states. Neither Rahul Gandhi nor party president Mallikarjun Kharge spoke anything on the caste census in last week’s election rallies.
In fact, Rahul Gandhi got active for I.N.D.I.A initially only at the advice of Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar. Rahul Gandhi had also moved forward on the caste census issue again at the behest of Nitish. Former PM late Indira Gandhi and Rajiv Gandhi never allowed the Mandal Commission report related to reservation to be implemented during their tenures. Former Congress chief Sonia Gandhi also distanced herself from caste politics. But after the formation of the alliance, Rahul Gandhi started insisting on caste census. Some leaders also backed him on this issue. But the questions being raised after the release of caste census data in Bihar have Congress strategists worried.
BJP also added a twist to this issue by linking it to politics of dividing the society on caste lines. Congress started realizing that the issue may backfire in the election-bound states. Upper castes are considered powerful in MP and Rajasthan. Therefore, Congress has completely stopped speaking on caste census and shifted focus to populist welfare schemes. Rahul Gandhi has also started changing his stance. Congress is now contesting elections in all the states on the basis of inflation, unemployment, corruption and populist schemes at the local level. Congress also distanced itself from the constituent parties of the I.N.D.I.A alliance. So, the SP and AAP are taking decisions on their own. The Samajwadi Party resorted to pressure politics in UP, which Congress rejected. Nitish Kumar is also hurt by the Congress being neglectful of him. Congress is no longer in a mood to give much importance to Nitish.
The strategy of Congress is to first win in the five states and then move forward with the strategy for the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. Congress strategists are confident that the party can win all the five states. These polls will definitely have an impact on the Lok Sabha elections next year. The party will then form an alliance on its own terms. Congress is of the view that the alliance will benefit it only if Mayawati becomes part thereof. If Congress wins in the Assembly polls, Mayawati may reconsider joining an alliance. Congress will also try to bring Mayawati along.