From China’s perspective, the time may be ripe to cut India down to size. Another military assault by China on India is not beyond the realm of possibility in this troubled geo-political climate.
Mankind is passing through a challenging phase. The winds of war are blowing ominously across the world fanning the flames of volatile hot spots that had lay dormant so far. The Ukraine-Russia war that erupted last year shows no signs of abating nearly two years later. The recent confrontation between Hamas and Israel with its myriad ramifications and its potential to draw other countries into the conflict has jolted the world to the possibility of a Third World War.
Geo-political equations across the world are changing, existing fault lines are getting deeper and there are signs of a new incipient global power struggle emerging. Russia stands eyeball to eyeball with NATO, the military grouping of Western powers. The Middle East conflict has divided the world into two broad camps with Russia and China on one side and the United States on the other. A dangerous disequilibrium is setting in that does not augur well for the future of the world
Compound this with the waning influence of the United States, the only dominant superpower and the climate of instability becomes even more scary.
Where does India stand in all this mayhem and how could it impact India?
India till now has been performing a precarious tightrope walk, without being irrevocably drawn into any one camp. India has refrained from criticizing Russia for the Ukraine war much to the disappointment of the United States. But, at the same time, India has fostered a strategic partnership with the United States to thwart China’s unholy designs on its territory; a pro-US tilt that has heightened the simmering tensions between India and China.
Now, with the United States pre-occupied with Ukraine and the Middle East, one cannot rule out the possibility of China exploiting the situation to its own advantage: to fulfil its long-term goal of annexation of Taiwan. But before embarking on this dangerous adventure, China may be prompted to test the waters by challenging the American resolve with a proxy war against India; an act that may allow China to kill two birds with one stone by cutting India down to size.
China is a dangerous cocktail of the past and the present. Hidden behind the reassuring façade of modern aspirations in tune with the changing world lies a ruthless medieval mindset that subscribes to notions of territorial expansion, international hegemony and intrinsic superiority.
In its world vision, there is no place for India; a country that it deems an upstart unworthy of global ambitions and one that needs to be put in place whenever it shows any signs of outpacing China either regionally or globally. That is a goal that China will strive to attain with either skillful guile or overt force if necessary.
The India-China competition is a sibling rivalry of sorts that dates back to the early 1950s when India and China, two large but underdeveloped and poverty-stricken countries emerged onto the world stage. India had the natural advantage because of the stature of Mahatma Gandhi and the finesse of Nehru. Moreover, India’s leadership of the non-aligned world gave it a prominence that China craved for.
India’s growing influence was an eyesore to the Chinese as this subsequent remark by its then Prime Minister Chou-En-lai about the happenings at 1955 Non-Aligned meeting in Bandung indicates:
“After the Chinese attack on India in October 1962, Shastri told many persons: ‘We are the ones who in fact introduced Prime Minister Chou En-lai to the non-aligned powers in Bandung.’ When this remark reached Chou En-lai he reportedly observed that he was surprised at the ‘effrontery of a third-rate Power like India claiming to introduce to the world the Prime Minister of a first-rate Power like China’.” (Kuldip Nayar. India: The Critical Years.)
The 1962 war, ostensibly a fallout of a contentious boundary dispute, was in reality the interim finale of this intense rivalry, with the express purpose of cutting India down to size. Sarvepalli Gopal corroborates this in his authoritative biography of Nehru by quoting a Chinese official who explains that the prime objective of the 1962 war was to demolish India’s “arrogance” and “illusions of grandeur” and that China “had taught India a lesson and, if necessary, they would teach her a lesson again and again.”
Note the emphasis on “again and again” which indicates that China is not averse to using a military option in the future.
After the 1962 war, India receded to the background. Militarily humbled and economically in doldrums, India posed no challenge to China in terms of political dominance in either Asia or the world; that is where China would always like India to be.
However, since 2014 with the ascent of BJP and Narendra Modi in India, the picture has changed. A resurgent India is making rapid strides in all fields but still remains far behind China economically and militarily.
Nevertheless, for China even a little progress on India’s part is sufficient to raise its hackles. And 2023 particularly has seen a reversal of fortunes of sorts with India hogging the limelight, at times at the cost of China.
In 2023, India successfully hosted the G20 summit, landed on the South Pole of the moon, a distinction unique to India and has seen its rate of growth surpass China. As per the IMF, India is expected to grow at the rate of 6.1% in 2023 and 6.3% in 2024. In contrast China continues to decline; it is expected to register a rate of 5.2% in 2023 and 4.5% next year.
Prominent multinationals like Apple Inc have been shifting production out of China and into India because of growing US-China tensions. As per some reports Apple may make one out of every 4 iPhones in India by 2025.
All this has added to China’s growing resentment with India and China has not hesitated to make its displeasure known. The unresolved boundary dispute has once again become a bone of contention; the Doklam standoff, the deadly Galwan clash and repeated efforts to encroach on Indian territory are Chinese pressure tactics to bully India.
President Xi Jinping refused to attend the G-20 summit in New Delhi without any valid reason and China objected to the use of the Sanskrit phrase “Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam” (The World is One), in G-20 documents—the intention being to downplay Indian influence and culture.
China’s petty vindictiveness extends to the sports field as well. In the recently concluded Asian Games in Hangzhou, Chinese officials routinely disqualified Indian athletes or made efforts to discredited them. The World and Olympic javelin champion Neeraj Chopra’s good first throw was deliberately not measured; that he still managed to clinch the gold is another story.
A review of the recent articles published in the Global Times, the official Chinese mouthpiece indicates that China continues to be trapped in its own narrative; a mindset of competition, condescension and bullying as these excerpts indicate: “India has been thinking highly of itself lately… India perceives its current position in the triangular relationship of India, China and the US to be analogous to China’s position during the Cold War era among the triangular relations of China, the US and the Soviet Union.”
Experts note that in the China-India border dispute, India is the side that always wants more, and with US endorsement, refuses to make any compromise. Disputes won’t be fixed in that way, and that method of dealing with problems might backfire. (China’s unyielding border stance never shaken by India’s strategic drift toward US. Global Times, Oct 12, 2023)
During the G20 summit, India, in the process of setting the agenda, displayed a clear goal of competing with China to become a leader in the developing world (US-India relationship is not as rosy as it seems on the surface, Liu Xiaoxue, The Global Times. Oct 2, 2023)
So, from China’s perspective, the time may be ripe to cut India down to size. Another military assault by China on India is not beyond the realm of possibility in this troubled geo-political climate.
While India has improved its infrastructure along the border and shored up its defenses, India needs to be extra vigilant in these trying times and be prepared for the worst.
For neither can we overlook a Hamas type attack emanating from a desperate crumbling Pakistan in tandem with China’s shenanigans.