Bangladesh, with a history of friendly ties, could be amenable to strengthening relations with India
Four of India’s six neighbours, excluding China and Myanmar, are members of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC), established in 1987 with its headquarters in Kathmandu. Once the initial challenges were overcome, the regional organisation seemed poised to evolve into a meaningful alliance of nations, all sharing a similar stage of development and facing common problems. Among its members were countries with substantial populations, such as India, Bangladesh, and Pakistan, as well as relatively sparsely populated ones like the Maldives, Bhutan, Nepal, and Afghanistan. However, concerns about the continued support for terrorism by Pakistan, dating back about three decades, led India to dampen its enthusiasm for this platform aimed at promoting mutual cooperation and coordinating various types of state actions. Fearing an escalation of mere dialogue without meaningful engagement, the heads of governments of the two countries began abstaining from SAARC meetings, signalling a reluctance to participate fully in the platform. Without the senior representatives of two of its large sized members, the organisation has become virtually moribund.
There is a general feeling that the decision to skip the forum was an overreaction and should be rectified promptly. Optimistic foreign affairs analysts believe that SAARC has the potential to transform into an institution capable of resolving disputes, besides collectively evolving ways and means to better the lives of their citizens. Moreover, creating new opportunities for structured as well as informal deliberations on bilateral and contentious issues, usually held on the sides, takes time and is ridden with uncertain outcomes. With a renewed olive branch extended by Nawaz Sharif, the former Premier who has returned to contest the forthcoming elections, there is an expectation that Pakistan may conduct its affairs with a shade less belligerency than before.
By responding positively, India would be taking a calculated short-term risk, as the effectiveness of such a stance would be swiftly tested in a couple of meetings. In a multilateral forum like the SAARC summit, the “re-elected” Nawaz Sharif is likely to adopt a reconciliatory approach, considering the severe economic and political drawbacks faced by his country in recent years. Given these circumstances, the powerful army leadership should also find reason in initiating a dialogue with India.
Another measure worth exploring is India assigning only very senior diplomats as envoys to countries in South Asia. Apart from being more perceptive in their assessments, this move would convey the message of the significance India places on its relations with these nations. Additionally, at the Foreign Office headquarters in India, an independent minister responsible for dealing with neighbouring nations should be appointed. With easy access to the Prime Minister and other senior functionaries, this could facilitate the prompt addressing of issues of concern, and prevent them from escalating unnecessarily.
COUNTRY SPECIFIC STRATEGIES: BANGLADESH
Moving on to evolving country-specific strategies and the requisite measures to operationalize them, the litmus test for the success of the Neighbours First policy would remain Bangladesh—a nation India helped birth. Initially, India took all the right steps, being the second country (after Bhutan) to recognise Bangladesh, garnering global support, and providing substantial material assistance for over two decades. However, at some point, India appears to have taken missteps. To start with, it failed to promptly address the concerns of the new nation regarding the sharing of waters from the Farakka Barrage, the return of small pieces of land around Paduo in Sylhet that was under Indian control since 1971, as well as the Moore Islands in the Satkhira district.
The strong pro-India fervor dissipated rapidly after the assassination of Sheikh Mujibur Rehman, the first President and addressed as the Father of the Nation, in 1975. Subsequently, whether inadvertently or otherwise, India failed to maintain the necessary political neutrality in the inevitable instability that followed. A continued perception of a Big Brother attitude on India’s part in dealing with the independent-minded Bangladeshis, contributed to a diminishing affinity. India’s efforts to address illegal immigration by constructing a fence along the 2,500 km common land border were also viewed as unfriendly. Such impressions were exploited by the raw politicians in the country. The decline in standing of India became particularly evident during the tenures in government of leaders from the Bangladesh Nationalist Party, a trend that persists despite the head and former Premier, Khaleda Zia, being under house arrest and serving an 18-year sentence for corruption. With the upcoming general elections in January, and both Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina from the National Awami League since 2009 and Sheikh Khaleda contesting, there is potential for the underlying opposition to India, within a section of the political leadership, to resurface.
Premiers Narendra Modi and Sheikh Hasina have both taken swift action in recent months—this includes commissioning long-time India aided projects that have been under implementation. Notably, the Agartala-Akhaura rail link through Bangladesh has been completed, significantly reducing the distance between Kolkata and Agartala from 1,700 km to 350 km. Additionally, a dedicated transmission line has been established to bring electricity from India and help evacuate the earmarked installed generation capacity of 1,160 MW for this purpose. Back in 2015, soon after the new NDA government came into power, the two leaders had entered into three landmark deals: swapping disputed lands, establishing a transit route to India’s northeastern states through Bangladesh, and signing a free trade agreement.
Over the years, bilateral trade has flourished, reaching $18 billion, with Indian exports totalling $16 billion. In South Asia, Bangladesh is India’s largest partner, and for Bangladesh, India for years was its biggest trading partner in the entire Asian region. India has extended three lines of credit amounting to $8 billion for building transportation infrastructure, including roads, railways, shipping, and ports. There remains room for expanding cooperation in infrastructure building. While between 1947 and 1965, seven rail links between India and East Pakistan were operational, now only five are, despite a perceptible increase in the number of passengers and freight.
Substantive as the Indian development assistance to Bangladesh might be, India must reckon with the position that since its liberation in 1971, Bangladesh has moved on. Over the last decade, its GDP has grown at an average of 6%, reaching a rate of 6.4% between 2016 and 2021 (even during the pandemic in 2020, a commendable 3.4% growth was recorded). Bangladesh is now among the fastest-growing economies globally. With a per capita income of US$2,800, it surpasses India’s, and the country has achieved a notable reduction in poverty. Anticipated to exit the category of least developing countries by 2024, Bangladesh’s growth is driven by textiles, apparels, light manufacturing, and pharmaceuticals. As the largest garment exporter after China, it has experienced a 56% increase in overall labour productivity since 2010, reaching US$12,000—significantly higher than the global average of 22% and the 36% witnessed by low and middle-income nations. The expanding consumer market contributes to 70% of the GDP, and by 2030, an additional 34 million or 15% of the population is expected to join the middle or affluent class. Bangladesh’s digital economy is thriving, with daily online transactions worth $200 million, 90% internet access coverage, and a mobile subscriber base of 180 million, ranking it as the 9th largest in the world.
The rationale for highlighting Bangladesh’s remarkable turnaround in recent years is to make the case for according it greater respect and recognition. With a population of around 170 million, the country, known for its low labour costs and disciplined women workers in the garment industry, faces challenges typical of a society in transition. Despite international acclaim, Bangladesh grapples with a low ranking in the Human Development Index (coming in at 129th), limited access to healthcare and education, economic imbalances with imports exceeding exports, and remittances hit by slowdowns in the Middle East and the Gulf. High inflation, scarce capital for investment, and the imperative for systemic improvements in banking and financial industries contribute to the complexities. Moreover, Bangladesh remains vulnerable to recurring disasters like floods and cyclones, emphasizing the ongoing need for resilience and effective disaster management. Recognising both its achievements and challenges remains crucial.
With residents in Bangladesh sharing cultural, linguistic, and familial affinities, especially with West Bengal, India holds a natural advantage in fostering closer bonds. The gradual improvement in their relationship in recent years bodes well, but Indian cooperation and assistance should be significantly enhanced to counter Chinese influence. It’s crucial that this support is no longer perceived as aid to a poor country. Developing connectivity in transportation, including ports, waterways, roads, and rail, would simultaneously be instrumental in tapping into Bangladesh’s fast-growing consumer market for Indian products and services. Facilitating the exchange of electricity and crude oil for larger imports of natural gas, along with providing transit facilities for passenger and cargo movement, could further boost trade and tourism. The existing free trade agreement would then gain real momentum, contributing to the stability and prosperity of both nations. Addressing domestic poverty in Bangladesh may alleviate concerns about increased migration into India, and promote an enduring mutually beneficial relationship.
Dr Ajay Dua is an ex-Secretary in the Union Ministry of Commerce & Industry.
Subsequent parts of this article, indicating further country-specific strategies and the measures to operationalize them, will follow.