For the first time in the democratic history of Nepal, two popular Left parties, perceived to be anti-India, have formed an alliance to contest the upcoming provincial and federal elections due in the landlocked Himalayan nation in November-December.
The Communist Party of Nepal-Unified Marxist-Leninist (UML) and Communist Party of Nepal-Maoist Centre, both with a reputation of voicing anti-India sentiments, have decided to sail in the same boat, though they have been known to be each other’s enemies in the past.
Deep Upadhyaya, former ambassador of Nepal to India, who has retired from diplomacy to join politics and will be contesting the elections from Kapilvatsu constituency, told The Sunday Guardian, “Nepal is going through the concluding phase of a political transition. These elections were much awaited and will decidedly chart the future course of the country. For now, Nepal will have to get accustomed to alliances and European style of coalition governments, as the current electoral system makes it difficult for a single party to gain complete majority.”
Dinesh Yadav, journalist with the widely read Kantipur daily published from Kathmandu, told The Sunday Guardian, “The communist parties in Nepal have gained ground and they are the heavyweights right now. The communist parties, though more popular in the hills, have been trying to gain support in Madhesh to counter India’s influence in Nepal. China’s imprint behind the unification of Nepal’s Left parties is pretty evident.”
On the other hand, calling themselves the “democratic alliance”, the Nepali Congress (NC) and two Madhesh-based parties—Rastriya Janata Party-Nepal (RJP-N) and the Sanghiya Samajbadi Forum-Nepal (SSF-N)—have set a few broad principles to forge an electoral alliance in the upcoming federal and provincial elections. Democratic Forum, another Madhesh-based political party, too, has joined this alliance.
The first principle of the “democratic alliance” will be to support the top leaders of both the blocs in the first-past-the-post (FPTP) category. This means that the NC will support the candidacy of SSF-N chairman Upendra Yadav and RJP-N Chair Mahantha Thakur. The two parties would, in turn, support the candidacy of top NC leaders. The second principle is to stand together to defeat candidates of the UML and Maoists. The “democratic alliance” is also said to be pro-monarchy.
On the other hand, the Left alliance has signed a six-point deal under which they will first contest the federal-parliamentary elections in November and announce a unified party later. The UML and the Maoists have agreed to field their candidates in a 60-40 ratio of the total constituencies respectively and allocate a proportion to other parties that might later join the alliance.
Aanand Gupta, a Madhesi civil society activist, told The Sunday Guardian from Nepal: “It is the most unnatural alliance. The two Left parties have been known to be each other’s enemy in the past and are ideologically different too. I don’t have much hope about this alliance turning into a merger.”
Since the current government is being run by an alliance between NC and the Maoists, the announcement of the Maoists aligning with UML for the upcoming elections came as a shock for many. As a result, incumbent Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba on Tuesday relieved all Maoist ministers from their respective roles in the Cabinet.
The UML and the Maoists have decided against contesting elections under the same ballot symbol. They will, however, be coordinating the distribution of tickets and have also agreed to take turns leading the coalition after January 2018, if they win.
Explaining China’s interests in Nepal, Yadav said, “We can see China’s increasing influence in Nepal. China has facilitated libraries, cultural centres etc., in Nepal and all this has led to its popularity among people. A lot Nepali students go to study in China through exchange programmes and this has led to an increase in the number of inter-nation marriages. Seven years ago, I had written about this phenomenon when around 30 China-Nepal couples had started living in Madhesh. Now the number has increased.”
While people living in the hills have been vocal in their criticism of India’s role in Nepal, people in the Tarai region see India as an all-weather friend. The Left parties have a stronger base in the hills and Madhesi parties are powerful in the plains. Political observers in Nepal say that the communist parties have been trying to gain back their support in Madhesh on the back of blockades and incomplete projects that the Indian government had promised. This has allegedly led to much disappointment among the local people against India.
Giving an opportunistic perspective, Gupta said, “The top leadership of all the three major parties in Nepal—the UML, Maoists and the NC—comprises of Brahmins who are only 12% of Nepal’s population. These alliances are nothing more than gimmicks at keeping power in the hands of a few. The madhesi, under-privileged and Janjaatis are seen as second-class citizens here. Unless this sentiment changes, there is little hope for uniform progress.”
According to the new Constitution, the 275 members of the legislature will be elected by two methods— 165 will be elected from single-member constituencies by FPTP voting and 110 seats will be elected by closed list Proportional Representation (PR) from a single nationwide constituency. Each voter will get separate ballot papers for the two methods. A party or electoral alliance must pass the election threshold of 3% of the overall valid vote to be allocated a seat under the proportional method. The candidate who obtains the support of a majority of the members will become the next Prime Minister.