BJP holds a strong lead primarily due to Modi’s sustained popularity.
As India prepares for the 2024 general elections, the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi holds a strong position while the opposition faces challenges in catching up. The recent state polls on December 3 significantly favoured the BJP, with victories in Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, and Rajasthan in the Hindi belt states. The opposition Indian National Congress managed a sole win in the southern state of Telangana.
Looking ahead to the 2024 parliamentary elections, the BJP holds a strong lead primarily due to Modi’s sustained popularity. Morning Consult’s survey, monitoring the weekly approval ratings of over twenty world leaders, revealed that in late November, 78 percent of surveyed Indians endorsed Modi’s performance in office.
Domestic opinion polls confirm that Modi’s popularity remains intact and that this continues to fuel his party’s dominance. The opposition alliance has talked a good game about collectively taking on the BJP, but it faces an uphill climb on at least three counts. First, the alliance must agree on a common platform that transcends a reflexive opposition to the Modi-led BJP. The BJP alliance earned 45 percent of the vote in the 2019 election, suggesting that more than half of the country did not support it. While their common anti-BJP position creates a floor for the opposition, the INDIA coalition must also offer an alternative vision for governing that sufficiently distinguishes it from the BJP.
Second, at present, the INDIA bloc is leaderless. This places it at a distinct disadvantage to the ruling alliance, which boasts a larger-than-life leader in Modi. While the opposition is factually correct in stating that India is a parliamentary democracy in which the eventual prime minister will be chosen by the party (or coalition) that constitutes a majority in the Lok Sabha, this ignores the fact that Modi has successfully presidentialized the system over the past decade. In the face of a popular incumbent, the INDIA coalition risks being dismissed unless a leader emerges who offers a counterpoint to Modi.
The third crucial aspect is the competition for the support of the Other Backward Classes (OBCs), the largest single voting group in India, constituting potentially over 40 percent of the population. The BJP’s electoral evolution under Modi owes much of its success to attracting OBCs to its fold, drawing significant voters away from the Congress Party and the Mandal parties in northern India, which focused on empowering backward castes. An integral part of Modi’s economic strategy involves what he terms “new welfarism,” emphasizing increased government investments in providing essential private goods like clean cooking fuel through gas cylinders, toilets, bank accounts, and electricity connections. Studies indicate that these investments have translated into political gains.
Analysis of the 2019 general elections revealed that voters benefiting from government schemes related to cooking gas, bank accounts, and housing were more inclined to support the BJP.
However, it is also true that some welfare beneficiaries, namely pensioners and participants in a national rural employment guarantee scheme, were more inclined to vote for non-BJP parties. There is a widespread perception that Modi has elevated India’s status on the global stage, ensuring that the country enjoys a seat at the global high table. The government’s yearlong, high-voltage marketing campaign celebrating its inaugural G20 presidency serves as recognition that the way India is perceived globally is a matter of domestic political salience.
Today, it is not uncommon for voters to remark that Modi has “put India on the map.” The opposition is at a disadvantage here. The looming general elections will influence the economic objectives of the central government, led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s BJP Party. These elections will influence federal spending plans and announcements pertaining to job creation and infrastructure development. Heading into 2024, India’s economy looks steady and on an upward trend. Projections indicate that India will be the world’s third largest economy by 2027, surpassing US$5 trillion in GDP. Positive trends are expected across services and manufacturing, especially education, healthcare, IT, and PLI-industries, all of which cumulatively bode well for the real estate sector. Key incentive programs may encourage foreign firms to invest in domestic players to access subsidies and tap into supplier networks.
The general elections could present an X-factor, but global investors can expect Indian policymakers to maintain a steady focus on business stability, job creation, industrialization, and an expanding digital economy. India’s economy is on track to reach 6.5 percent growth in the fiscal year 2024-25 and will hit 7 percent in 2026, according to latest estimates from S&P Global. Data from the quarter ending September showed the Indian economy expanded 7.6 percent year-on-year. This positions the country as a compelling foreign investment hub, which is also set to overtake China’s growth forecast of less than 5 percent in 2024. Even by the IMF’s conservative estimates, India will emerge as the world’s third-largest economy by 2027 surpassing Japan and Germany, with GDP exceeding US$5 trillion.
The country’s robust economic trajectory is underpinned by resilient growth and favorable demographics. In the realm of investments, India’s appeal endures, offering global companies substantial scale, skilled talent, and cutting-edge technology. Micro, small, or medium enterprises (MSMEs) will remain pivotal in fostering jobs, income, capabilities, and ecosystems for sustained growth in consumption, manufacturing, and infrastructure investments. India’s digital economy will continue to attract investors as technology-based solutions are sought to transform people’s lives, governance, and enterprise operations. The rapid growth in demand for online products and services is also a reflection of the increasing spending power of India’s non-metropolitan (tier-2 and tier-3) cities. The digital economy accounted for 4-4.5 percent of the total GDP in 2014 and is currently at 11 percent. The government projects the digital economy to make up more than 20 percent of Indian GDP by 2026.
As per the most recent Nasscom-Zinnov report, India presently accommodates approximately 1,580 GCCs, providing employment to 1.66 million individuals. By 2025, India is set to surpass 1,900 GCCs, providing employment to over 2 million people.