Sources confirmed that JDU and BJP were talking to each other.
There is a possibility that newly appointed Janata Dal (United) national president and Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar may re-join the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) towards the end of the second week of January when the “inauspicious” period of Kharmas ends on 14 January, sources close to the CM have told The Sunday Guardian. BJP sources aware of the matter, while staying away from commenting on “when” the ghar-wapsi may happen, confirmed that JDU leaders and BJP were in talks to arrive at this political arrangement.
The reason Nitish is likely to give to his voters for breaking his ties with the Grand Alliance and rejoining the NDA is the Congress’ alleged “apathy” towards Nitish’s endeavour to complete the caste census in Bihar. Also, he is likely to talk about RJD leader Tejaswhi Yadav avoiding summons from the Enforcement Directorate, something that Nitish had done in July 2017 too, when he had broken off from the RJD.
The step taken by Nitish to reappoint himself as the party president and the statement made by party leaders and the resolutions passed at JDU National Executive in which Kumar’s “big stature” was highlighted, are being seen as pressure being put by Kumar on I.N.D.I.A leaders to give him a “respectable position” within the alliance in case his talks with the BJP do not work out.
While the state BJP leaders are not too open to Kumar rejoining the NDA, BJP’s central leadership is considering this prospect as Kumar’s EBC and OBC vote bank continues to remain with him and if the JDU-BJP fights the April-May 2024 Lok Sabha elections in alliance, the number of NDA MPs from Bihar is likely to increase substantially, which will help the BJP-led NDA to touch the 400-seat mark that they are striving for.
The result of the caste census is likely to bring rich political dividends for Kumar and his party symbol, irrespective of which of the two alliances he allies with.
Secondly, if Kumar joins the NDA, the newly formed Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (I.N.D.I.A) will lose the man who took the first step to bring this alliance into existence and hence his departure is likely to deal a body blow to the alliance and reduce its value significantly in front of the voters just days before the elections are to be announced.
The Congress-led alliance is already facing seat sharing issues in West Bengal, Delhi and Punjab.
The 72-year-old Kumar knows that this is going to be his last Lok Sabha elections as he has already stated in the 2020 Bihar Assembly elections that he will retire from active politics. By joining the NDA, Kumar will ensure that he lives a comfortable retired life post May 2024.
It is pertinent to mention that one of the main reasons behind Congress leaders not agreeing to Nitish Kumar being made the convener or the Prime Ministerial face of the alliance is the distrust that they have for him, which stems from the frequent changes of heart he experiences.
If he rejoins the NDA, this will be the fourth such political somersault for the man who had once resigned as Railway Minister in August 1999 after taking moral responsibility for a train accident. However, much water has flown under the bridge since then and now Nitish is known more for his political opportunism.
In June 2013, Nitish had first left the BJP-led NDA and joined hands with the Lalu Yadav-led RJD to contest the 2015 Assembly elections, which they won. In July 2017, he left the RJD alliance and joined hands with the BJP again. In August 2022, Nitish again left the BJP and rejoined the RJD-led alliance.
On Friday, Kumar ensured the removal of Lalan Kumar Singh as the national president of the party. JDU sources aware of the matter told The Sunday Guardian that Singh’s removal from the post was necessary as he was allegedly trying to break the JDU to ensure the anointment of RJD leader and Deputy CM Tejashwi Yadav as the Chief Minister of Bihar. For this, sources said that Lalan had already reached out to at least 10 MLAs who were to give support to Yadav after breaking away from the JDU. The Grand Alliance, as of now, minus JDU’s 45 MLAs, is at 115 and hence needs only 7 more MLAs to continue to stay in power in an Assembly of 243 MLAs.
JDU’s previous president, R.C.P. Singh had to resign on the orders of Nitish in July 2021, barely 18 months after assuming charge, as it had emerged that Singh too was allegedly trying to break the JDU, in support of the BJP.
After R.C.P. Singh’s resignation, Lalan Singh @ Rajiv Singh was made the party president.
While Kumar is likely to continue as Chief Minister or not, other political possibilities are also being discussed in Patna as far as the new set-up post Kumar joining hands with the BJP. This includes BJP agreeing to some other leader from the JDU as the CM, including Ashok Chowdhary, who along with party leader Sanjay Jha, are the two closest confidants of Kumar as of now. Secondly, if the BJP pushes for its own candidate, then the names of Nityanand Rai and Sanjay Jaiswal are being floated. State president Samrat Chowdhary is considered as too “independent” for being appointed as the CM.
However, considering BJP’s recent political decisions, it is likely that the party leadership may go for a leader whose name is not even being considered as a possible candidate.
The Sunday Guardian reached out to party functionaries in the JDU and the RJD for a response, but none was received till the time this report went to the press. BJP state president Samrat Chowdhary was unavailable to speak on this issue.