INTRODUCTION
End of a year and the beginning of a new year merit a close look at developments over the last 12 months to examine India’s performance in the arena of foreign policy to arrive at a balanced assessment of its achievements and losses.
G20 PRESIDENCY
India heralded many firsts in hosting the G20 Summit in September 2023 in New Delhi. The biggest triumph was the finalization of the consensus Leaders’ Declaration by the afternoon of the first day of the Summit itself as against all the misgivings about India’s ability to arrive at an agreed document before the end of the two-day deliberations. It demonstrated the growing influence of the country.
India also effectively articulated the concerns and aspirations of developing countries by organizing two Voice of the Global South Summits. A concrete demonstration of India’s commitment to promote interests of the Global South was the induction of the African Union (AU) as the 21st Member of the Grouping.
In addition to these successes, India achieved significant progress on substantive aspects also. Some of these included the focus on the Sustainable Development Goals; the debt trap being experienced by many countries particularly from the Global South; Green Development Pact For A Sustainable Future; promoting women-led development; increased use of public digital Infrastructure (PDI); reform of Multilateral Development Banks; Countering Terrorism And Money Laundering, and more.
In the domestic context, India took the G20 to the far reaches of the country. More than 200 meetings were organized in 59 far-flung cities of the country, making it a case of jan bhagidaari (people’s participation).
The Summit provided an opportunity to India to play host to some of the most consequential world leaders. Chinese President did not attend. He might have calculated that his absence would dilute the importance of the Summit, and the credit to India would stand diminished. Exactly the opposite happened. His absence went a long way to improve the atmospherics of the Summit, and India and PM Modi garnered all the glory for organizing a flawless Summit.
RELATIONS WITH THE USA
Bilateral ties with the United States were taken to the next higher level in 2023 with the invitation to PM Modi by President Biden to pay an official state visit to the US. PM Modi was also invited to address the joint session of the US Congress during his visit. PM Modi thus became one of the handful of world leaders and the only Indian leader to address the US Congress on more than one occasion, having addressed the US Congress earlier in June 2016.
The visit witnessed a decisive impetus to high technology collaboration between the two countries in defence, critical and emerging technologies, clean energy, telecommunications, resilient supply chains, 5G/6G technologies, AI, Quantum Computing, space, semiconductor chips and many more. In addition, investments into India of several billions of dollars were announced by many US firms.
In the area of defence, an MOU was signed between General Electric of the US and Hindustan Aeronautics Limited of India for Transfer of Technology and joint production of GE-F414 jet engines for India’s indigenous Tejas light combat aircraft.
It is evident that the US has made the strategic decision to catapult India into the ranks of technologically advanced countries.
A small hiccup surfaced in bilateral ties with the indictment of an Indian national by the US for a plot to assassinate a US citizen Gurpatwant Singh Pannun, who has been declared a terrorist by India for his activities to create a separate state of Khalistan in India. India denied any official involvement but set up a committee to look into the information shared by the US. This incident is unlikely to have any long term impact on the rapidly burgeoning bilateral ties.
India had invited President Joe Biden as Chief Guest at India’s Republic Day on 26 January 2024. The regret by Biden to visit India in January 2024, on account of his domestic preoccupations, was seen by some as a “snub” to India. This was vigorously refuted by Jake Sullivan, NSA of US saying that President Biden is “personally committed” to deepening ties with India and shares a “close personal bond” with PM Modi.
PRESIDENCY OF SCO
At the culmination of its Presidency of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), India organized a productive virtual summit on 4 July 2023. Prior to that, India had organized several meetings, some of them virtually and others in person.
During its Presidency, India launched several new initiatives to enhance engagement among people. India established five new pillars of cooperation within the SCO, viz., startups and innovation, traditional medicine, youth empowerment, digital inclusion, and shared Buddhist heritage.
India provided fresh energy and direction for SCO’s growth and development in the coming years.
Some “experts” charge that harm was done by hosting the Summit in virtual format. My view is exactly the opposite. No purpose would have been served by playing host to the leaders of China and Pakistan, keeping in view the existing adversarial relations with these countries. Secondly, it would have been uncomfortable to have had the leaders of Iran, Russia, Belarus and others, which maintain hostile ties with the West, on Indian soil within two weeks of PM Modi’s path-breaking state visit to the US on 22-23 June 2023.
THE BRICS SUMMIT
The BRICS Summit held in Johannesburg, South Africa on 22-23 August attracted unusual attention of international media primarily because of the interest of about 40 countries to become members of the Organization. There was also considerable media speculation that a big push will be made towards de-dollarization by moving towards a new currency. There was apprehension that the BRICS might move towards becoming an anti-Western and pro-China Organization.
Ultimately, it was decided to admit six new countries viz. Saudi Arabia, UAE, Iran, Ethiopia, Argentina (which subsequently declined the offer to join) and Egypt. India enjoys warm and cordial relations with all of them.
There is little risk of BRICS becoming anti-Western or India’s influence being diminished. India will however need to remain vigilant. Russia is the next Chair of BRICS. Pakistan has expressed its interest to become a member of BRICS. India will need to resist this move firmly.
No substantive discussions on the issue of de-dollarization took place at the Johannesburg Summit except an encouragement to countries to trade in their national currencies.
RELATIONS WITH CANADA NOSE-DIVE
In a totally unexpected move, Canadian PM Justin Trudeau announced in the Canadian Parliament on 18th September that there were “credible allegations” that India was involved in the killing of a Canadian citizen, a Khalistani separatist Hardeep Singh Nijjar. It expelled a senior Indian official from the Indian High Commission in Ottawa without providing any evidence of his involvement. The Indian Foreign Office termed these charges as “absurd and motivated.” India’s External Affairs Minister categorically stated that it is not India’s policy to engage in extra-territorial killings. He added that no specific or relevant information had been shared by Canada and if such information was provided, India would look at it. India maintains that the real issue is the space provided by Canada to anti-Indian elements to carry out anti-Indian activities within Canada and India.
PM Trudeau has done tremendous disservice to Canada’s credibility and reputation and to bilateral relations with India by making baseless charges.
RUSSIA, ISRAEL-HAMAS CONFLICT AND CHINA
The annual summit between India and Russia did not take place in 2023, nor in 2022. Regular meetings between EAM and Russian FM however took place through the year to keep the relations on an even keel. EAM Jaishankar’s 5-day visit to Russia from 25th to 29th December 2023, during which he also met President Vladimir Putin provided a shot in the arm to bilateral ties. Putin invited PM Modi to visit Russia in 2024 for the annual summit. EAM Jaishankar accepted the invitation on PM Modi’s behalf. Russia emerged as the largest supplier of crude oil to India in 2023.
India adopted a position of strategic clarity on the conflict between Israel and Hamas. It unequivocally condemned the terrorist attack by Hamas and taking of Israeli hostages. It expressed support for a two state solution, sent humanitarian relief to Gaza and advocated observance of humanitarian law in attacks by Israeli forces in Gaza.
Relations with China continued to be abnormal. China issued a map showing the whole of Aksai China and Arunachal Pradesh as part of China. India lodged a “strong protest” over the “absurd claims” made by China.
An unanticipated jolt appeared in the form of an emphatic defeat at the hands of Pakistan in the election to the light-weight position of vice-president of UNESCO. Ministry of External Affairs and Ministry of Education, which looks after this Organization, will need to undertake a detailed post-mortem to understand the reasons for this debacle and ensure that it is not repeated.
CONCLUSION
In these turbulent times, India has charted a bold and creative course in conducting its foreign policy. In this respect, 2023 has been both rewarding and challenging. At the end of the year, India can look back with satisfaction and confidence at its achievements in the competitive arena of foreign policy. This will provide it the courage and determination to overcome the risks and threats it is bound to confront in 2024.
Ambassador Ashok Sajjanhar is Executive Council Member, Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses; and former Ambassador of India to Kazakhstan, Sweden and Latvia,