The future of Jayant Chaudhary’s Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) will depend on its performance in Jat-belt of western UP in the coming parliamentary elections likely to be held in April-May this year.
Akhilesh Yadav’s Samajwadi Party (SP) and RLD have formed an alliance in UP for the upcoming Lok Sabha elections. As a result of the agreement, RLD will contest on seven seats in Western UP. Sources say RLD has been allocated the seven seats of Meerut, Mathura, Baghpat, Muzaffarnagar, Bijnor, Amroha and Kairana in Western UP with a considerable number of Jat electors which will obviously impact the outcome.
RLD is facing the challenge of establishing its presence on these seats as it failed to win any of three seats of Mathura, Baghpat, and Muzaffarnagar it had contested in alliance in UP with SP and BSP in last Lok Sabha elections. Its candidates remained second on all the three seats at that time. However SP and BSP secured victories on five and ten seats respectively in 2019.
RLD has not yet made announcement of any of its candidates, however the sources say that either Rajkumar Sangwan or Madan Bhaiya may contest from Baghpat, while Yogiraj Baliyan or Manisha Ahlawat likely to try luck from Muzaffarnagar. Most probably, Jayant Chaudhary will not contest the coming elections as he is already a member of the upper house.
However, there are chances that some SP candidates may contest on the RLD symbol from Kairana and Amroha seats. It is speculated that SP leader Iqra Hasan may contest from Kairana on RLD symbol, while Danish Ali, the incumbent MP who has been expelled from BSP due to anti-party activities and is close to Rahul Gandhi, may be fielded from Amroha on the RLD symbol. However, a lot of voters do not like the idea of “other party leaders” contesting on the RLD symbol, as they believe that such candidates do not fit with the party’s ideology and that it’s better to compromise on seats than on candidates. This was also a discussion point with lots of RLD voters during the UP Assembly elections.
As far as the previous elections are concerned, RLD never succeeded in securing more than five parliamentary seats in a single election in Uttar Pradesh. In 2014 too, RLD could not open its account on any of the eight seats it contested in alliance with Congress.
Recent tensions among the Congress, SP, and RLD have surfaced during seat-sharing discussions. SP openly expressed discontent during the Madhya Pradesh Assembly elections, accusing Congress of “cheating.” Similarly, RLD felt dissatisfied when Congress allocated only one seat in the Rajasthan Assembly polls.
Analysing their vote shares in Lok Sabha elections, SP’s share in UP has gradually declined but remained above 18 per cent. In contrast, RLD’s highest vote share was of 4.5 per cent in 2004. In 2019, the combined vote share of the SP and RLD was 19.8 per cent, slightly surpassing BSP but significantly trailing BJP at 50 per cent. Congress recorded a 6.4 per cent vote share in the last polls. In the 2022 Assembly elections, both SP and RLD improved their performances, with SP achieving its best in 20 years. With BSP’s declining influence, SP emerged as primary opposition in UP. Meanwhile, Congress has become a minor player in state elections, with a lower vote share than the RLD.
Talking about the alliance, SP chief Akhilesh Yadav posted on X (formerly Twitter), “Congratulations to everyone on the alliance of RLD and SP. Let us all unite for victory.” Reposting this tweet, RLD Chief Jayant Chaudhary wrote, “Always ready to protect national and constitutional values. We expect all workers in our alliance to move forward together for the development and prosperity of our region.”
Following the alliance announcement, Western UP may witness a new dynamic, posing challenges for RLD. The impact of the BJP’s influence, particularly from the 2013 riots, could play a role, potentially leading to united voting among certain communities against the BJP. The Ram Mandir issue remains significant in this context. On the other hand, RLD may once again rely on its traditional coalition strategy, forming alliances among Jats, Dalits and Muslims. Some constituencies lack a substantial Yadav voter base, but RLD may gain support from the Bhim Army, as seen in Khatauli by-election, where Bhim Army Chief Chandrashekhar campaigned for RLD, contributing to its victory on that seat. However, Chandrashekar may also contest the Lok Sabha elections, probably on a seat from the SP or RLD quota.