With a discernible hostile approach, Congress has announced the first list of its probable for the coming general elections. It seems it would do little to illuminate the grand old party’s diminishing prospects in coming general elections. Surprisingly, the party has skipped picking candidates for the Gandhi family’s home base Uttar Pradesh where the party is trying to take back crucial strongholds.
In another tweaking try, albeit somewhat self-inflicting, the party, which is gradually losing members from the Upper House (Rajya Sabha), has fielded the party’s general secretary K.C. Venugopal in the elections from Kerala.
He has a little over two years left in his Rajya Sabha term. If he wins the election, he will have to resign his Rajya Sabha membership from Rajasthan and the resultant byelection for the remaining term will see the ruling BJP easily win the seat. In 2019, Rahul Gandhi had not picked Venugopal’s name for the general elections as he was asked to supervise the party’s election and campaign-related matters. This is a clear indication that Congress chief Mallikarjun Kharge will do the stewardship instead. Venugopal will contest from Alappuzha in Kerala, a constituency he has represented in the past. It is the only one of Kerala’s 20 constituencies that the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) lost the last time. But if Venugopal successfully contests the election, Rahul may entrust him with some prominent assignment, besides his existing responsibilities as party’s general secretary.
However, Rahul Gandhi’s need to position himself as a change agent for the future sends the message that the party is now focused on the South rather than on the North. Kerala is the only safe zone left in the entire country where Congress can hope against hopes for securing some seats. Rahul Gandhi and Venugopal, by deciding to contest elections from safe seats, have mounted pressure on other leaders to contest elections. These include Deependra Hooda, Randeep Singh Surjewala, Mukul Wasnik, Ajay Maken, Sachin Pilot, Digvijaya Singh and Jairam Ramesh. However the party has fewer options left to maintain dominance in the Rajya Sabha where it is fast losing majority. Once the number of Congress members falls below 25, it would lose the Leader of Opposition status from its fold in the Rajya Sabha. The party already has lost the Himachal Pradesh seat in the recently concluded Rajya Sabha elections and has come down to 29 seats in the Upper House. If Venugopal joins the Lok Sabha the number will go down to 28.
Moreover, the Rajya Sabha elections are slated this month in Jharkhand; if the Congress loses the Jharkhand seat too it will come down to 27. Political climate in the country does not augur well for the Congress, in the coming two years it may fall be- low the 25-seat mark in the Rajya Sabha because the planners in the party do not want to keep pace with the changing political scenario of the country. Congress needs to burnish its political image. And in order to do so, advisors of Rahul Gandhi need to shed their entrenched interests, particularly in a crucial state like Uttar Pradesh. Priyanka Gandhi Vadra has yet to make her electoral debut from the party’s Uttar Pradesh stronghold and the family nursed seat of either Rae Bareli or Amethi, particularly in light of the stark reality that Rahul Gandhi had lost the Amethi seat in a shock defeat to Bharatiya Janata Party’s Smriti Irani in 2019. However, there has al- ways been a “will she, won’t she” air about her and elections.
The party may not run the risk of fielding Priyanka or the Gandhi family may skip contesting the elections from Uttar Pradesh. For the first time after Independence, the Gandhi family seems to be in a fix. Those who are at the helm of affairs have created such situation for the Gandhis that it would be difficult for the party to overcome.
The Congress and the Gandhis now face a test of their strength in Uttar Pradesh, that could shape the party’s political future. In this battle of the ballot, if the Congress loses or even shows a dismal performance, it will be the beginning of the end of the party’s presence not only in Uttar Pradesh but also at the Centre.