‘BJP thinks adding Rajauri and Poonch to Anantnag will be of help’.
With the redrawing of constituencies in Jammu and Kashmir, BJP is said to be keen on winning the Lok Sabha seat of Anantnag (which is one of the three seats in Kashmir) according to leaders in the union territory.
The rationale, a senior leader said, for BJP to pocket such a seat is the recent inclusion of Poonch and Rajauri regions in Anantnag. According to an ex minister from Jammu, the region has more than 3.50 lakh electorate which constitutes more than 20% voters of the whole constituency. Consequently, the two regions are expected, by the BJP, to vote for the saffron camp after the Centre’s grant of Schedule Tribe (ST) status to Paharis. There are around 15 lakh voters in Anantnag.
Talking about the possible benefits accruing to the BJP, PDP spokesperson Tahir Sayeed said to The Sunday Guardian, “The BJP’s plan is to get one more seat from the union territory and that too from Kashmir and for that they have brought Rajauri and Poonch into Anantnag. The delimitation actually happens based on geographical continuity which is not there. Getting it together (including Poonch and Rajauri into Anantnag LS seat) in is something fishy. They are underestimating the people of Rajauri and Poonch. BJP thinks that the reservation they have given to Pahari people will consolidate its Pahari vote share.
At the same time they are trying to divide the Gujjar Bakerwal community. But it is for sure that these people will not vote for communal forces.” Anantnag region has been a bastion of PDP. Mehbooba Mufti had won from the seat in 2014 by polling more than 50% votes. However, she lost in the following Lok Sabha elections in 2019 and polled just around 25%. A senior political observer said, “This time PDP has chances to win the seat even if it contests separately, if everything goes by the law. As they have emerged stronger and rebuilt the cadre and also solidified the public outreach.”
However, there is another development on the horizon as three local parties, JKDAP (led by Azad), People’s Conference helmed by Sajad Gani Lone and Apni Party of Altaf Bukhari are in talks for an alliance and could jointly field their candidates in the union territory. A senior source said, “The three parties have already held more than two meetings over the formation of an alliance. Alliance formation is in the final stages and is likely to be declared soon. Such an alliance could shake the foundation of regional parties like National Conference and People’s Democratic Party.”
If proper planning is made, an analyst said, by these new three parties on the ground and the work of public outreach is done to target the vote share of regional parties, PDP and NC, then there may be some vote shift and the two regional parties may lose some vote share. These three new parties do not have sufficient cadre to achieve much in Anantnag, but can emerge as vote cutters. The analyst said, “How much of this will work in favour of the BJP is to be seen as it could be a testing constituency for the saffron camp.”