BJP is keen to swell its Yadav support from 23% in 2019 to 30-35% in the coming elections, first after SP’s founder Mulayam Singh Yadav’s death.
The coming parliamentary elections will be the first after the death of Samajwadi Party’s founder Mulayam Singh Yadav on 10 October 2022. While his son Akhilesh Yadav has taken on the mantle of party president, there seems to be a big chunk of supporters who are unhappy with the party’s poor electoral performance under him. This impatient section of voters which wants the community to be on the winning side and participate in governance appears to be an ideal target for BJP which has been on a spree to take Yadav leaders on board.
While picking Mohan Yadav as the chief minister of neighbouring Madhya Pradesh, BJP think tank sent a strong message to members of the community in Uttar Pradesh about its eagerness to work for them. BJP is keen to swell its Yadav support from 23% in 2019 to 30-35% in the coming elections.
MP CM has visited Uttar Pradesh on three occasions since taking oath in December 2023 and during his visits he has taken pains to highlight that he has Azamgarh roots and his in-laws are based in Sultanpur. In a veiled attack on Akhilesh Yadav in early March, Mohan Yadav also hit out at the Saifai family for exploiting the Yadav community.
Political analysts say BJP’s vote share in 2019 was 49.98% (winning 62 seats) and in 2014 it was 42.63% (winning 71 seats). The party is aware of the fact that it needs to break the barrier of 50% vote share to improve its tally from the current 62. This would not be possible without biting into the Yadav vote bank.
To strengthen its Yadav credentials, BJP recently inducted former minister Narendra Singh Yadav, a second generation Samajwadi Party leader, from Mohammadabad area of Farrukhabad district. There are also signs that after Mulayam Singh Yadav’s demise many SP leaders and supporters feel that they don’t have to repay “Netaji’s debt” by backing SP in elections. This also gives them the freedom to look at other political outfits that hold promise for the Yadav community’s welfare.
In about 12 districts of Uttar Pradesh, the Yadav population is above 20%. In another 10 districts the population is around 15%. Key districts where the community calls the shots in elections include Mainpuri, Etah, Azamgarh, Deoria, Gorakhpur, Balia, Ghazipur, Jaunpur, Badaun, Etawah, Kannauj and Farrukhabad. According to a report by the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies, in 2019 LS elections 60% Yadavs supported the SP-BSP, 23% backed the BJP and 5% supported the Congress. A social justice committee report in 2001 said that Yadavs account for 19.40% of the backward community in Uttar Pradesh.
The absence of Mulayam Singh Yadav, who kept the Yadav flock together and also attracted Muslims to achieve the winning combination of M-Y, and a big BJP push to attract Yadavs is likely to redefine the community’s voting pattern in the coming election, said social activist Dharmendra Yadav.
He said Mulayam Singh was known to take along all supporters and sections of the community, something which the SP appears to have failed in achieving after his death.
A big setback for the party, according to political observers, has been the split in the All India Yadav Mahasabha which had worked with Mulayam Singh for several decades. Now, one of the factions of the organisation is working with the SP and the other has gravitated towards the BJP. Uday Pratap Singh, a former Rajya Sabha member, quit recently as president of the organisation citing health and age related issues.
From the BJP’s perspective, a section of the now-split Yadav organisation has shown interest in working closely with it. Arun Yadav, an office bearer of the organisation, had met Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath earlier to seek support for creation of Ahir Regiment.
Another leader of the Yadav community, Shyam Singh Yadav, a BSP MP from Jaunpur, recently joined the Bharat Jodo Yatra to make clear his intentions to align with the Congress in coming times. Thus, the slow disintegration of the formidable Yadav leadership and vote-bank has started reflecting in the performance of the SP in the politically significant Uttar Pradesh – that sends 80 MPs to Lok Sabha.
In 2019, the SP won five seats and its vote share fell around 4.24% to 18.11%. In 2014, also the party won five seats but with a vote share of 22.35%.
Among the first few Yadav community leaders who made it big in parliamentary politics was Raghubir Singh Yadav who won from Agra East seat on a Congress ticket in 1952. In 1957, Ram Sewak Yadav of the Socialist Party was elected from Barabanki. They were followed by some mass leaders like Ram Naresh Yadav and Mulayam Singh Yadav. In 1967, a non-Congress government came to power in UP and Mulayam Singh Yadav got a Cabinet berth.
In 1977, Ram Naresh Yadav became the first Yadav Chief Minister of UP. The Mandal movement of 1989 saw Mulayam emerge as a prominent face and subsequently become the CM from Janata Dal. The Yadav vote-bank helped Mulayam serve as UP CM thrice and Akhilesh Yadav once.
However, the Yadav leaders’ unity has taken a hit over the decades. Many contemporaries of Mulayam Singh Yadav have shifted to other parties, including the BJP, amid a perception that the SP no longer talks of Yadav community’s rights and honour. Among those who have parted ways with the SP are former minister and Mulayam Singh’s close aide Narendra Singh Yadav, former MP Sukhram Singh Yadav, former legislative council’s chairperson Ramesh Yadav and former legislator Hari Om Yadav. Former MP D.P. Yadav has floated his own party.